Opinion | As US-China rivalry hots up, what does the future hold for Southeast Asian security and the South China Sea?

No one should expect the sovereignty disputes over rocks and reefs to be resolved any time soon. But claimants including China and the Philippines may reach compromises and agree to joint development deals

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A reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Photo: AFP

Published: 11:03am, 18 Sep 2019Updated: 9:49am, 19 Sep 2019

I am no Nostradamus. But after some 45 years of analysing South China Sea issues, I have drawn some conclusions about what will – and will not – happen in the region in the foreseeable future.

First some context. In the mid-1970s, when I first began following the issues, they were relatively isolated disputes over ownership of specks on the atlas. They were not major security concerns for either the claimants or outside maritime powers like the United States.

However, over the ensuing decades, nations became more aware of the fisheries and potential oil reserves in the South China Sea, and of the possibility that these specks could qualify to have 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zones around them. As the claimants extended their resource jurisdiction 200 nautical miles, or even more, China revived its historical claim to the waters, the “nine-dash line”.

This is when the US got involved because it feared China would limit freedom of navigation in the sweeping area it claimed. Unfortunately, The Hague did not mitigate the dispute when it rejected China’s claim to the waters and ruled that the specks in question could not have exclusive economic zones around them.

Beijing refused to recognise the ruling in the case brought by Manila. Despite warnings from many, myself included, the South China Sea issues became intertwined with a power struggle between China and the US. The outcome of this struggle will be a major factor in the region’s future. In this context, here are the things that are unlikely to happen.

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