Why the 13th round of US-China trade war talks may well be unlucky for some

As Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He and his trade team fly off to Washington this week for round 13 of their negotiations to settle American President Donald Trump’s tariff-obsessed trade war, an audit of progress is probably in order.

The first, and easiest, prediction must be that no breakthroughs can be expected any time soon. Fifteen months after hostilities were launched, Trump’s silly tweet that “trade wars are good, and easy to win” must jar with all parties.

Probably most significant is that, just as Hong Kong’s meltdown is about much more than an extradition bill, so the war launched by Trump is about much more than tariffs, about more, even, than trade. It is about the nature of United States’ political and economic engagement with the global economy.

It is about the future shape of global technology development. And, depending on how these evolve, it is about how China develops both in its own right, and in the terms of its engagement with the global economy. Trump has opened a Pandora’s box and few will emerge unharmed.

The particular tariff war that Liu’s negotiating team will be focusing on in Washington has been good for no one. In all likelihood, when a settlement is finally reached, it will be sold to US voters as a win and may be swallowed as such by many US communities.

But, in reality, it is likely to prove a painful and pointless distraction, forcing dislocation and costly restructuring of many complex global supply chains, and delivering few of the intended benefits to the US economy, to its companies and its workforce, harming US competitiveness and its reputation as a reliable and trustworthy trade or investment partner.