Donald Trump’s unhinged presidency has had severe consequences for Syria’s Kurds, and US allies in Asia should take note
- Donald Trump’s abandonment of Syria’s Kurds shows how reckless he can be, especially while under fire over Ukraine
- Asian allies should start preparing for rash decisions, and making friends in US Congress who can check his impulses
The scene inside the White House Cabinet Room, by the look of the photo released by President Donald Trump via Twitter, was fraught with tension. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was on her feet and pointing at an incredulous looking Trump, mouth agape, chair pushed back from the table.
His advisers, many with their heads down looking at their hands, could feel the storm. Pelosi reportedly said “all roads seem to lead to Putin”. Sometime thereafter, the Democratic representatives stormed out of the room.
Pelosi questioned Trump’s mental fitness in a press conference that followed, describing his demeanour as a “meltdown”. Trump fired back, with the sophistication of a kindergartner, that no, it was Pelosi who had the meltdown. So much for executive messaging coming out of the White House these days.
This abandonment of the Kurds and Trump’s apoplectic retorts, are an ominous sign that highly volatile US foreign policy could easily spill over to other parts of the world, including Asia.
In defence of his pullback, Trump tweeted that Turkey and Syria should handle the conflict themselves because the US is “7,000 miles away”. US allies Japan and South Korea must be taking note. They are, after all, about 7,000 miles away from Washington, too.
US and North Korea must put self-gain aside
So far, Trump has accommodated Pyongyang, including two long-distance flights to meet Kim in Singapore and Vietnam, and cancelling joint US-South Korea military drills. His unpredictable deal-making instincts were restrained by his then-national security adviser John Bolton, a hardliner who no longer serves at the pleasure of the president. Bolton’s successor, Robert C. O’Brien, is likely to play a much less dominant role.
The range of possibilities that might upend decades of US policy in Asia staggers the mind. Trump could unilaterally declare an end to hostilities with North Korea without getting anything in return. He could decide to pull a large contingent of US troops out of South Korea, declaring he’s bringing them home from a forever “war” on the peninsula so far from US shores. No president has done that since the Korean war.
Donald Trump must rethink his strategy on Syria
China, of course, would like nothing better than a US pullback, if not an altogether removal from the region, but Beijing can’t celebrate too quickly. Mutual defence treaties that govern US troop and military support for South Korea, Japan and the Philippines limit any drastic reversals in policy.
Congress erupted with condemnation from both Republicans and Democrats in a powerful vote criticising the president over his troop pullback from Syria. That forced Trump to backpedal with a warning that he could “destroy” Turkey’s economy if their military incursion, which he let happen, goes too far.
Any dramatic upheaval in Asia policy would certainly provoke similar ire among legislators on Capitol Hill. He desperately needs the support of Republican senators to fight a Democrat-led impeachment process.
That doesn’t mean Trump won’t try something just short of politically catastrophic. As he careers from one ill-informed pronouncement to the next, it becomes ever more clear that he has no grand strategy. The White House is in the throes of an extremely chaotic and unprincipled phase of this presidency.
US allies in Asia will need to be prepared for more of the unhinged, unhealthy or worse. Their relationship with the US Congress is now more important than ever.
Brian P. Klein, a former US diplomat, is the founder and CEO of Decision Analytics, a strategic advisory and political risk firm based in New York City
