Hong Kong is no longer a colony, but officials still await instructions from on high – and that’s a problem

The local government still behaves like it’s overseeing a colony but has less leverage with Beijing than leaders of mainland cities
Receiving little or no instruction from the central government has also led to many mistakes and a confused response to the protests

Chris Lonsdale

Published: 6:30am, 29 Oct 2019

Why you can trust SCMP

I have written a lot about the situation in Hong Kong, and have unreservedly lambasted people who are damaging transport infrastructure and businesses in the city, or attacking people who hold different views. As with any conflict, of course, there is always another side. Let’s take a look.

A major claim coming from the “protest camp” is that Hong Kong no longer has any autonomy, and that the Hong Kong government is just following instructions from Beijing. Unfortunately, I think the situation is simpler but sadder than that.

If we look at major cities in China – such as Shenzhen, Shanghai or even Guangzhou – we see the city leaders very often being tough, feisty characters who “fight their corner”. They go to bat with the central government, pushing hard for the initiatives they want to roll out in their cities.

As a special administrative region for the past 20-plus years, Hong Kong has had immense freedom to guide development and head off the crisis that has now come home to roost. That opportunity has clearly been squandered.

Recently, when 1 to 2 million people marched peacefully as a reaction against the extradition bill, the response of the Hong Kong government should have been “Oh dear, this is not going to fly. We had better retract and think about how to do this in a way that can be accepted by the community.” As we all know, that did not happen. At least, not quickly enough to avoid the societal breakdown we are now seeing.

So, how did we get here? I think the Hong Kong government was trying to second-guess what Beijing would want, and took many weeks to go through that process. When Beijing didn’t tell Hong Kong what to do, the local government finally had to make the decision locally.

Clearly, not being in the inner circle, it’s impossible to say with complete certainty that there have not been direct commands from Beijing. That will come out in historical research, maybe 50 or 100 years from now. But, for the purpose of argument, let’s assume that’s the case.

Which means that, in effect, we really are in the middle of “50 years no change”. A British colony was handed over to China, and leaders in the local government still see the territory as a colony – except we don’t have a Chinese governor.

A governor, installed by Beijing, could be the solution for Hong Kong

Rather than grasping the mantle with both hands, and fighting Hong Kong’s corner, it can be argued that the Hong Kong government has continued to govern the city the way it had been governed under British rule – as a colony. Except that, in the past, the Hong Kong government took instructions from London, and they now expect instructions from Beijing. Instructions that, quite likely, never come.

I would posit that the behaviour of the police over the past several months proves this point. If the belief that Beijing wants to crush dissent in Hong Kong is correct, why has this not happened? Surely, orders to use extreme force would have been received, and the “lame” Hong Kong government would have gone along meekly with those orders. In such a case, we would see Hong Kong police violently beating, even indiscriminately shooting, local protesters.

But, let’s just compare Hong Kong with what’s been happening in Barcelona , Paris, London or Ecuador: Hong Kong police are treating protesters with kid gloves by comparison.

In those other cities, police are violently attacking protesters sitting peacefully on the ground or merely handing out pamphlets. In Hong Kong, we see vicious violence directed against the police, including slashing a policeman’s neck, drop-kicking an officer who was arresting a masked protester and mobs with sticks rushing small groups of officers, clearly intending to do bodily harm.

Simply condemning the protest violence won’t solve the problem

It is very much like the Hong Kong police are doing everything they can to keep the peace without doing any permanent damage to anyone. If the chief executive wanted them to truly go in hard against the protesters, they would – unless they were to disobey direct orders. From the body language we can observe of front-line officers, this is unlikely to be the case. They really look to be holding back.

So, I think we can be reasonably confident that the Hong Kong government is not simply executing hard-line orders from Beijing.

Which means that, rather than leading, the government in Hong Kong is reduced to second-guessing what Beijing wants. And, in this, the tendency has been to err on the side of never doing anything that could possibly upset the leadership in Beijing. Even if it’s completely unclear what the leadership might actually want.

Why both Beijing and the protesters should listen to Lee Hsien Loong

It gets worse. It’s likely that many local Hong Kong people, including members of the Legislative Council and other local politicians, also still see Hong Kong as a colony, and also believe that the city follows instructions from Beijing – the same as when Hong Kong was under British rule. Why else this absolute certainty that Beijing is calling the shots?

So, we’re in this weird situation where a significant cross-section of the community thinks Beijing is violating the Basic Law, but really the Hong Kong government is making decisions (some of them very questionable) on its own. It is understandable that people would take the local government to task for this . Blaming Beijing for all of Hong Kong’s problems is not.

Chris Lonsdale is a psychologist, linguist, educator, entrepreneur, dialogue facilitator and corporate adviser with over 30 years’ experience doing business in Asia

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