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Opinion | Beijing should clarify what happens to Hong Kong after 2047, to ease the fear and uncertainty

  • A simple statement that Hong Kong’s way of life can continue indefinitely after 2047 until otherwise agreed would sets minds at ease in Hong Kong and aid Beijing’s case for reunification with Taiwan

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A flash mob protest at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University in Hung Hom on October 30. Protesters’ five demands are a cry from the heart for clarity over what happens after 2047. Photo: Sam Tsang

The best thing Beijing could do now for Hong Kong’s young people is to relieve them of the burden of thinking about 2047. For those of us in the community aged 60 or over, this date is of little or no concern: let’s face it, we probably won’t be around. And those in their 40s and 50s have mostly by now become used to life’s compromises.

But for those in their 30s or younger, the year 2047 looms large. They will still be in the prime of life when the promise of Article 5 of the Basic Law – that Hong Kong’s capitalist system and way of life will remain unchanged for 50 years – expires.

The uncertainty about what happens next is preying on their minds. They see themselves as being in a classic existentialist situation where, like all creatures who detect danger, they must choose “fight or flight”. And they are still young enough to do either, or both.

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I believe they are wrong in their analysis, but it is hard to blame them. Many people in Hong Kong – including politicians, journalists, political commentators, legal scholars – have concluded that the whole of the Basic Law expires in 2047.

It follows, at least in their line of thinking, that thereafter the mainland’s socialist economic system and all mainland laws will take over from the common law system. All of the freedoms we currently enjoy will be swept away.

Prominent in what I call the “Armageddon scenario” camp is no less an authority than retired Court of Final Appeal judge Henry Litton. In his book published earlier this year, Is the Hong Kong Judiciary Sleepwalking to 2047?, Litton berates Hong Kong society in general and his fellow judges in particular for failing to prepare for the day when the “one country, two systems” formula prescribed in the Basic Law ceases to apply.
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