As Beijing redraws its agricultural supply lines amid the trade war, US farmers may have lost their China market share for good
- It was natural that China, which relies heavily on food imports, would look elsewhere when US tariffs began to bite. But American farmers should not get their hopes up once the trade war ends – other countries, including New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina, are filling the void
The US-China trade war, combined with an outbreak of African swine fever that has decimated the pig population in China, has prompted Beijing to make some changes to its food imports. While China previously sourced many of its agricultural imports from the United States, it is now buying more from other nations.
That is not going down well. But surely Washington must have foreseen that retaliatory measures by Beijing, in response to President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, would target agricultural imports from the US?
US officials should have known that China would redraw its agricultural supply lines. After all, Chinese people still have to eat, trade war or no trade war, and China relies on food imports , a fact that has come into sharper focus as a consequence of the outbreak of African swine fever.
Thus, circumstances have dictated that China diversify its sources of food imports. And Beijing might decide that it quite likes it that way. It must be better for China’s food security to be less dependent on one supplier, the US, especially when relations between Beijing and Washington may not be as cordial in the future as they once were. US farmers might not regain their market share even if a trade settlement is concluded with China.
In the meantime, the impact of African swine fever has put pressure on pork prices in China. As a result, consumers have been seeking alternative, less-expensive sources of protein. Step forward, New Zealand, which has had a free-trade agreement with China since 2008. While China-US trade relations remain rocky, Beijing’s trade ties with New Zealand look solid.