Neal Kimberley

UK-based Neal Kimberley has been active in the financial markets since 1985. Having worked in sales and trading in the dealing rooms of major banks in London for many years, he moved to ThomsonReuters in 2009 to provide market analysis. He has been contributing to the Post since 2015 and writes about macroeconomics from a market perspective, with a particular emphasis on currencies and interest rates.
Neal Kimberley
UK-based Neal Kimberley has been active in the financial markets since 1985. Having worked in sales and trading in the dealing rooms of major banks in London for many years, he moved to ThomsonReuters in 2009 to provide market analysis. He has been contributing to the Post since 2015 and writes about macroeconomics from a market perspective, with a particular emphasis on currencies and interest rates.

Latest from Neal Kimberley

Macroscope | The Fed has no real reason to cut rates, unless it’s to save the US economy from Donald Trump’s tariffs

The Federal Reserve’s signalling of a rate cut is out of the ordinary, given the strength of US economic data. Are Trump’s trade war and tariffs doing that much damage to the US economy?

17 Jul 2019 - 3:35AM

The Federal Reserve’s signalling of a rate cut is out of the ordinary, given the strength of US economic data. Are Trump’s trade war and tariffs doing that much damage to the US economy?

The Fed has no real reason to cut rates, unless it’s to save the US economy from Donald Trump’s tariffs
Macroscope | In a Trumpian world, Japan may have little choice but to accept a stronger yen

Japan’s Ministry of Finance is unlikely to act to prevent yen strength at a time when US President Donald Trump is accusing other countries of currency manipulation and complaining about Tokyo’s unfair relationship with Washington.

10 Jul 2019 - 12:34AM

Japan’s Ministry of Finance is unlikely to act to prevent yen strength at a time when US President Donald Trump is accusing other countries of currency manipulation and complaining about Tokyo’s unfair relationship with Washington.

In a Trumpian world, Japan may have little choice but to accept a stronger yen
Macroscope | Between Fed rate cuts and the dominant US dollar, Donald Trump can’t have it all

Has the Trump administration forgotten what happened after Richard Nixon pressured the Fed to pump up the economy in 1972? Also, Washington’s sanctions on other countries might turn them against the US financial system and the dollar.

3 Jul 2019 - 12:04AM

Has the Trump administration forgotten what happened after Richard Nixon pressured the Fed to pump up the economy in 1972? Also, Washington’s sanctions on other countries might turn them against the US financial system and the dollar.

Between Fed rate cuts and the dominant US dollar, Donald Trump can’t have it all
Macroscope | Yuan appreciation might be the unintended consequence of interest-rate cuts in the US and Europe

Both the US dollar and the euro came under pressure after announcements by the Fed and European Central Bank chiefs that interest-rate cuts could be in the offing. If the Bank of Japan eases monetary policy further, the yen would be less attractive to currency investors.

25 Jun 2019 - 10:32PM

Both the US dollar and the euro came under pressure after announcements by the Fed and European Central Bank chiefs that interest-rate cuts could be in the offing. If the Bank of Japan eases monetary policy further, the yen would be less attractive to currency investors.

Yuan appreciation might be the unintended consequence of interest-rate cuts in the US and Europe
Macroscope | Despite extradition protests, China’s economic stimulus and US monetary policy easing leave Hong Kong well placed

China’s economic stimulus measures and the US Fed’s expected interest rate cut are likely to boost the Hang Seng Index, which in turn will support the Hong Kong dollar. Traders shorting the currency should rethink their strategy.

18 Jun 2019 - 10:34PM

China’s economic stimulus measures and the US Fed’s expected interest rate cut are likely to boost the Hang Seng Index, which in turn will support the Hong Kong dollar. Traders shorting the currency should rethink their strategy.

Despite extradition protests, China’s economic stimulus and US monetary policy easing leave Hong Kong well placed
Macroscope | From rare earths to soy, the trade war will force the US and China to diversify supply

The US has started looking into alternative suppliers for the elements that power hi-tech. Beijing has already done the same with soy, and even a trade war resolution won’t stop this process.

12 Jun 2019 - 2:43AM

The US has started looking into alternative suppliers for the elements that power hi-tech. Beijing has already done the same with soy, and even a trade war resolution won’t stop this process.

From rare earths to soy, the trade war will force the US and China to diversify supply
Macroscope | It’s not just China – the Trump administration has launched a dangerous war on the global trading order

The trade war is not just a strategy; Trump has a clear ideological enmity for trade deficits with any country, ally or rival. Conveniently, he rarely discusses those countries with whom the US enjoys a surplus in services.

5 Jun 2019 - 4:16AM

The trade war is not just a strategy; Trump has a clear ideological enmity for trade deficits with any country, ally or rival. Conveniently, he rarely discusses those countries with whom the US enjoys a surplus in services.

It’s not just China – the Trump administration has launched a dangerous war on the global trading order
Macroscope | Trump doesn’t need a trade deal with China, and markets had better factor in greater risk aversion

The US’ recent escalations towards China are inflammatory – which is no accident. This suggests Washington is in no hurry to resolve the dispute, despite the economic toll it’s taking.

28 May 2019 - 10:27PM

The US’ recent escalations towards China are inflammatory – which is no accident. This suggests Washington is in no hurry to resolve the dispute, despite the economic toll it’s taking.

Trump doesn’t need a trade deal with China, and markets had better factor in greater risk aversion
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on China are neither a one-off nor unique among American presidents

Tariffs may be here to stay because Donald Trump touts them as a general policy, not just a strategy for containing China. He also claims America’s beloved former presidents have supported tariffs – and he’s right.

21 May 2019 - 11:57PM

Tariffs may be here to stay because Donald Trump touts them as a general policy, not just a strategy for containing China. He also claims America’s beloved former presidents have supported tariffs – and he’s right.

Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on China are neither a one-off nor unique among American presidents
Macroscope | Currency traders poised to pounce as US trade war keeps the Chinese yuan weaker

Beijing is expected to tolerate a weaker yuan to help exporters offset the effect of higher US tariffs, although the yuan-to-dollar slide should be modest. Other currencies expected to be caught in the slipstream of trade war tensions include the yen and won.

14 May 2019 - 10:29PM

Beijing is expected to tolerate a weaker yuan to help exporters offset the effect of higher US tariffs, although the yuan-to-dollar slide should be modest. Other currencies expected to be caught in the slipstream of trade war tensions include the yen and won.

Currency traders poised to pounce as US trade war keeps the Chinese yuan weaker
Macroscope | Fear not, Hong Kong: trade talks, monetary loosening and the Greater Bay Area point to better times for the economy

Despite the worst quarterly results in 10 years, the Hong Kong economy is well-positioned for a rebound, especially if the trade war ends soon.

7 May 2019 - 10:43PM

Despite the worst quarterly results in 10 years, the Hong Kong economy is well-positioned for a rebound, especially if the trade war ends soon.

Fear not, Hong Kong: trade talks, monetary loosening and the Greater Bay Area point to better times for the economy
Macroscope | South Korea’s economic slump a bad sign for Asian economies dependent on exports to China

A weakened Korean won failed to stimulate its exports, meaning China’s recent growth is not in the sectors that need them, and that’s bad for Beijing’s other trading partners.

30 Apr 2019 - 10:35PM

A weakened Korean won failed to stimulate its exports, meaning China’s recent growth is not in the sectors that need them, and that’s bad for Beijing’s other trading partners.

South Korea’s economic slump a bad sign for Asian economies dependent on exports to China
Macroscope | In trade war talks, China may want US agricultural imports, but what it needs is food security

Washington and Beijing should know that a deal to end the trade war that increases Chinese reliance on US agriculture and US farmers’ dependence on Chinese markets is actually a lose-lose.

24 Apr 2019 - 3:30AM

Washington and Beijing should know that a deal to end the trade war that increases Chinese reliance on US agriculture and US farmers’ dependence on Chinese markets is actually a lose-lose.

In trade war talks, China may want US agricultural imports, but what it needs is food security
Macroscope | What El Niño, pork supply and steel production have in common – they all point to China needing a stronger yuan

All at once, the markets for pork, other agricultural products and iron ore face distortions, and China might be willing to accept yuan appreciation to protect against the resulting commodity-related inflationary pressures.

16 Apr 2019 - 10:25PM

All at once, the markets for pork, other agricultural products and iron ore face distortions, and China might be willing to accept yuan appreciation to protect against the resulting commodity-related inflationary pressures.

What El Niño, pork supply and steel production have in common – they all point to China needing a stronger yuan
Macroscope | One reason oil prices might buck the downward trend – demand from China

With global growth predicted to slow, oil prices are expected to drop. However, disruptions to oil supply due to factors such as US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and rising electricity consumption in China, could cause a rise in prices.

9 Apr 2019 - 10:17PM

With global growth predicted to slow, oil prices are expected to drop. However, disruptions to oil supply due to factors such as US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and rising electricity consumption in China, could cause a rise in prices.

One reason oil prices might buck the downward trend – demand from China
Macroscope | Wary of a strong yuan, China has reason to rue yen and euro weakness

While the US dollar is expected to weaken against the renminbi, its surprising strength against the euro and yen – the result of the Fed’s dovish turn and US Treasuries’ attractiveness viz-à-viz euro-zone and Japanese government papers – is bad news for Beijing.

2 Apr 2019 - 10:27PM

While the US dollar is expected to weaken against the renminbi, its surprising strength against the euro and yen – the result of the Fed’s dovish turn and US Treasuries’ attractiveness viz-à-viz euro-zone and Japanese government papers – is bad news for Beijing.

Wary of a strong yuan, China has reason to rue yen and euro weakness
Macroscope | Yen boost an unwelcome gift from the Fed’s dovish turn

The Bank of Japan, which has for years been trying to lift the economy out of a deflationary spiral, is unlikely to tolerate a rising yen and will act if it has to.

26 Mar 2019 - 10:20PM

The Bank of Japan, which has for years been trying to lift the economy out of a deflationary spiral, is unlikely to tolerate a rising yen and will act if it has to.

Yen boost an unwelcome gift from the Fed’s dovish turn
Opinion | Why the yuan will rise, even though China faces a ‘tough economic battle’ in 2019

Expect China’s fiscal loosening and foreign investment reform to lift the yuan, especially as the effects of US stimulus from last year continue to wear off and a trade war settlement looms.

19 Mar 2019 - 10:30PM

Expect China’s fiscal loosening and foreign investment reform to lift the yuan, especially as the effects of US stimulus from last year continue to wear off and a trade war settlement looms.

Why the yuan will rise, even though China faces a ‘tough economic battle’ in 2019
Macroscope | China should be free to let its currency function as a safety valve, regardless of what US trade negotiators want

Major economies around the world, from Canada and Japan to the euro zone and Australia, reserve the right to let currencies depreciate if conditions weaken. China should not give up its right to do the same as part of any trade war settlement.

12 Mar 2019 - 3:30PM

Major economies around the world, from Canada and Japan to the euro zone and Australia, reserve the right to let currencies depreciate if conditions weaken. China should not give up its right to do the same as part of any trade war settlement.

China should be free to let its currency function as a safety valve, regardless of what US trade negotiators want
Macroscope | How a likely trade war resolution and the MSCI China weighting boost point to a rise in the yuan

China may well accept a trade deal that specifically calls for a stronger yuan, while investors will look to buy more of the currency to fund increased holdings of A-shares.

5 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

China may well accept a trade deal that specifically calls for a stronger yuan, while investors will look to buy more of the currency to fund increased holdings of A-shares.

How a likely trade war resolution and the MSCI China weighting boost point to a rise in the yuan
Macroscope | China can’t accept US demands for a strong yuan in trade war negotiations

It is one thing for Washington to call on Beijing to stabilise the yuan; quite another for it to insist on a strong Chinese currency when it relies on the weakness of its own dollar.

26 Feb 2019 - 10:19PM

It is one thing for Washington to call on Beijing to stabilise the yuan; quite another for it to insist on a strong Chinese currency when it relies on the weakness of its own dollar.

China can’t accept US demands for a strong yuan in trade war negotiations
Macroscope | Huawei is just the start: 5G will be a central front in the US-China war for technological supremacy

Despite Huawei’s leading role in the field, security concerns mean the US was certain to oppose the Chinese firm’s involvement in the roll-out of 5G tech – and Washington won’t be alone.

19 Feb 2019 - 10:22PM

Despite Huawei’s leading role in the field, security concerns mean the US was certain to oppose the Chinese firm’s involvement in the roll-out of 5G tech – and Washington won’t be alone.

Huawei is just the start: 5G will be a central front in the US-China war for technological supremacy
Macroscope | How the Fed’s more nuanced policy and other currencies’ declines are good news for the yuan

The US central bank’s position has softened and, with other currencies set to decline or hold firm, the yuan suddenly looks like a good bet to rise in value.

12 Feb 2019 - 10:20PM

The US central bank’s position has softened and, with other currencies set to decline or hold firm, the yuan suddenly looks like a good bet to rise in value.

How the Fed’s more nuanced policy and other currencies’ declines are good news for the yuan
Macroscope | How the euro could become collateral damage in the US-China trade war as the yuan comes into focus

If China accedes to US pressure to strengthen the yuan against the dollar, it would also result in a rise in the yuan’s value vis-à-vis the euro. This would be unpalatable to Chinese exporters and a blow for the euro zone.

29 Jan 2019 - 10:20PM

If China accedes to US pressure to strengthen the yuan against the dollar, it would also result in a rise in the yuan’s value vis-à-vis the euro. This would be unpalatable to Chinese exporters and a blow for the euro zone.

How the euro could become collateral damage in the US-China trade war as the yuan comes into focus
Macroscope | Donald Trump needs a trade deal, China not so much – but Beijing may just be ready to settle, too

The timing seems right for a deal between Washington, where worries about Trump’s 2020 prospects are beginning to bite, and Beijing, which can do without the distraction of a trade war as it focuses on economic reform at home.

23 Jan 2019 - 1:59AM

The timing seems right for a deal between Washington, where worries about Trump’s 2020 prospects are beginning to bite, and Beijing, which can do without the distraction of a trade war as it focuses on economic reform at home.

Donald Trump needs a trade deal, China not so much – but Beijing may just be ready to settle, too
Macroscope | Will the Year of the Pig rein in Chinese yuan bulls as the seasonal boost ends and trade war reality kicks in?

Despite the Chinese currency’s strong start in January, the uncertainty over US-China trade negotiations and the possibility that Chinese exporters were behind seasonal demand for the yuan should give investors pause.

30 Jan 2019 - 11:49AM

Despite the Chinese currency’s strong start in January, the uncertainty over US-China trade negotiations and the possibility that Chinese exporters were behind seasonal demand for the yuan should give investors pause.

Will the Year of the Pig rein in Chinese yuan bulls as the seasonal boost ends and trade war reality kicks in?
Macroscope | Will the Japanese yen be a safe haven for investors in 2019?

Last week’s ‘flash crash’ that sent the yen soaring showed the currency’s draw when the jitters hit. Continuing market pessimism about the US and Chinese economies, and Japan’s own 2019 outlook, may add up to a good year for the yen.

8 Jan 2019 - 10:28PM

Last week’s ‘flash crash’ that sent the yen soaring showed the currency’s draw when the jitters hit. Continuing market pessimism about the US and Chinese economies, and Japan’s own 2019 outlook, may add up to a good year for the yen.

Will the Japanese yen be a safe haven for investors in 2019?
Macroscope | China’s thriving bonds, plus hopes for investment reform, trade talks and stimulus should hearten investors in 2019

It is prudent to have both concerns and confidence regarding China’s economy in 2019, as reforms and trade negotiations continue and policy options can still lift prospects.

1 Jan 2019 - 10:38PM

It is prudent to have both concerns and confidence regarding China’s economy in 2019, as reforms and trade negotiations continue and policy options can still lift prospects.

China’s thriving bonds, plus hopes for investment reform, trade talks and stimulus should hearten investors in 2019
Macroscope | IP and tech control will continue to inflame US-China relations, whatever the outcome of the trade talks

Investors hoping for a quick resolution of the current stand-off over trade should brace themselves for a protracted conflict, as both countries compete to protect their technological edge and strategic interests.

25 Dec 2018 - 3:16AM

Investors hoping for a quick resolution of the current stand-off over trade should brace themselves for a protracted conflict, as both countries compete to protect their technological edge and strategic interests.

IP and tech control will continue to inflame US-China relations, whatever the outcome of the trade talks
Macroscope | Will the yuan weaken further or bounce back next year? First, work out how strong the US dollar and euro are

The yuan might not weaken, despite China’s slowing economy and the trade war. Foreign exchange is relative. For the yuan to weaken, the market would also be making a judgment about the appeal of other currencies.

18 Dec 2018 - 10:23PM

The yuan might not weaken, despite China’s slowing economy and the trade war. Foreign exchange is relative. For the yuan to weaken, the market would also be making a judgment about the appeal of other currencies.

Will the yuan weaken further or bounce back next year? First, work out how strong the US dollar and euro are