Neal Kimberley

UK-based Neal Kimberley has been active in the financial markets since 1985. Having worked in sales and trading in the dealing rooms of major banks in London for many years, he moved to ThomsonReuters in 2009 to provide market analysis. He has been contributing to the Post since 2015 and writes about macroeconomics from a market perspective, with a particular emphasis on currencies and interest rates.
Neal Kimberley
UK-based Neal Kimberley has been active in the financial markets since 1985. Having worked in sales and trading in the dealing rooms of major banks in London for many years, he moved to ThomsonReuters in 2009 to provide market analysis. He has been contributing to the Post since 2015 and writes about macroeconomics from a market perspective, with a particular emphasis on currencies and interest rates.

Latest from Neal Kimberley

Macroscope | What El Niño, pork supply and steel production have in common – they all point to China needing a stronger yuan

All at once, the markets for pork, other agricultural products and iron ore face distortions, and China might be willing to accept yuan appreciation to protect against the resulting commodity-related inflationary pressures.

16 Apr 2019 - 10:25PM

All at once, the markets for pork, other agricultural products and iron ore face distortions, and China might be willing to accept yuan appreciation to protect against the resulting commodity-related inflationary pressures.

What El Niño, pork supply and steel production have in common – they all point to China needing a stronger yuan
Macroscope | One reason oil prices might buck the downward trend – demand from China

With global growth predicted to slow, oil prices are expected to drop. However, disruptions to oil supply due to factors such as US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and rising electricity consumption in China, could cause a rise in prices.

9 Apr 2019 - 10:17PM

With global growth predicted to slow, oil prices are expected to drop. However, disruptions to oil supply due to factors such as US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and rising electricity consumption in China, could cause a rise in prices.

One reason oil prices might buck the downward trend – demand from China
Macroscope | Wary of a strong yuan, China has reason to rue yen and euro weakness

While the US dollar is expected to weaken against the renminbi, its surprising strength against the euro and yen – the result of the Fed’s dovish turn and US Treasuries’ attractiveness viz-à-viz euro-zone and Japanese government papers – is bad news for Beijing.

2 Apr 2019 - 10:27PM

While the US dollar is expected to weaken against the renminbi, its surprising strength against the euro and yen – the result of the Fed’s dovish turn and US Treasuries’ attractiveness viz-à-viz euro-zone and Japanese government papers – is bad news for Beijing.

Wary of a strong yuan, China has reason to rue yen and euro weakness
Macroscope | Yen boost an unwelcome gift from the Fed’s dovish turn

The Bank of Japan, which has for years been trying to lift the economy out of a deflationary spiral, is unlikely to tolerate a rising yen and will act if it has to.

26 Mar 2019 - 10:20PM

The Bank of Japan, which has for years been trying to lift the economy out of a deflationary spiral, is unlikely to tolerate a rising yen and will act if it has to.

Yen boost an unwelcome gift from the Fed’s dovish turn
Opinion | Why the yuan will rise, even though China faces a ‘tough economic battle’ in 2019

Expect China’s fiscal loosening and foreign investment reform to lift the yuan, especially as the effects of US stimulus from last year continue to wear off and a trade war settlement looms.

19 Mar 2019 - 10:30PM

Expect China’s fiscal loosening and foreign investment reform to lift the yuan, especially as the effects of US stimulus from last year continue to wear off and a trade war settlement looms.

Why the yuan will rise, even though China faces a ‘tough economic battle’ in 2019
Macroscope | China should be free to let its currency function as a safety valve, regardless of what US trade negotiators want

Major economies around the world, from Canada and Japan to the euro zone and Australia, reserve the right to let currencies depreciate if conditions weaken. China should not give up its right to do the same as part of any trade war settlement.

12 Mar 2019 - 3:30PM

Major economies around the world, from Canada and Japan to the euro zone and Australia, reserve the right to let currencies depreciate if conditions weaken. China should not give up its right to do the same as part of any trade war settlement.

China should be free to let its currency function as a safety valve, regardless of what US trade negotiators want
Macroscope | How a likely trade war resolution and the MSCI China weighting boost point to a rise in the yuan

China may well accept a trade deal that specifically calls for a stronger yuan, while investors will look to buy more of the currency to fund increased holdings of A-shares.

5 Mar 2019 - 10:26PM

China may well accept a trade deal that specifically calls for a stronger yuan, while investors will look to buy more of the currency to fund increased holdings of A-shares.

How a likely trade war resolution and the MSCI China weighting boost point to a rise in the yuan
Macroscope | China can’t accept US demands for a strong yuan in trade war negotiations

It is one thing for Washington to call on Beijing to stabilise the yuan; quite another for it to insist on a strong Chinese currency when it relies on the weakness of its own dollar.

26 Feb 2019 - 10:19PM

It is one thing for Washington to call on Beijing to stabilise the yuan; quite another for it to insist on a strong Chinese currency when it relies on the weakness of its own dollar.

China can’t accept US demands for a strong yuan in trade war negotiations
Macroscope | Huawei is just the start: 5G will be a central front in the US-China war for technological supremacy

Despite Huawei’s leading role in the field, security concerns mean the US was certain to oppose the Chinese firm’s involvement in the roll-out of 5G tech – and Washington won’t be alone.

19 Feb 2019 - 10:22PM

Despite Huawei’s leading role in the field, security concerns mean the US was certain to oppose the Chinese firm’s involvement in the roll-out of 5G tech – and Washington won’t be alone.

Huawei is just the start: 5G will be a central front in the US-China war for technological supremacy
Macroscope | How the Fed’s more nuanced policy and other currencies’ declines are good news for the yuan

The US central bank’s position has softened and, with other currencies set to decline or hold firm, the yuan suddenly looks like a good bet to rise in value.

12 Feb 2019 - 10:20PM

The US central bank’s position has softened and, with other currencies set to decline or hold firm, the yuan suddenly looks like a good bet to rise in value.

How the Fed’s more nuanced policy and other currencies’ declines are good news for the yuan
Macroscope | How the euro could become collateral damage in the US-China trade war as the yuan comes into focus

If China accedes to US pressure to strengthen the yuan against the dollar, it would also result in a rise in the yuan’s value vis-à-vis the euro. This would be unpalatable to Chinese exporters and a blow for the euro zone.

29 Jan 2019 - 10:20PM

If China accedes to US pressure to strengthen the yuan against the dollar, it would also result in a rise in the yuan’s value vis-à-vis the euro. This would be unpalatable to Chinese exporters and a blow for the euro zone.

How the euro could become collateral damage in the US-China trade war as the yuan comes into focus
Macroscope | Donald Trump needs a trade deal, China not so much – but Beijing may just be ready to settle, too

The timing seems right for a deal between Washington, where worries about Trump’s 2020 prospects are beginning to bite, and Beijing, which can do without the distraction of a trade war as it focuses on economic reform at home.

23 Jan 2019 - 1:59AM

The timing seems right for a deal between Washington, where worries about Trump’s 2020 prospects are beginning to bite, and Beijing, which can do without the distraction of a trade war as it focuses on economic reform at home.

Donald Trump needs a trade deal, China not so much – but Beijing may just be ready to settle, too
Macroscope | Will the Year of the Pig rein in Chinese yuan bulls as the seasonal boost ends and trade war reality kicks in?

Despite the Chinese currency’s strong start in January, the uncertainty over US-China trade negotiations and the possibility that Chinese exporters were behind seasonal demand for the yuan should give investors pause.

30 Jan 2019 - 11:49AM

Despite the Chinese currency’s strong start in January, the uncertainty over US-China trade negotiations and the possibility that Chinese exporters were behind seasonal demand for the yuan should give investors pause.

Will the Year of the Pig rein in Chinese yuan bulls as the seasonal boost ends and trade war reality kicks in?
Macroscope | Will the Japanese yen be a safe haven for investors in 2019?

Last week’s ‘flash crash’ that sent the yen soaring showed the currency’s draw when the jitters hit. Continuing market pessimism about the US and Chinese economies, and Japan’s own 2019 outlook, may add up to a good year for the yen.

8 Jan 2019 - 10:28PM

Last week’s ‘flash crash’ that sent the yen soaring showed the currency’s draw when the jitters hit. Continuing market pessimism about the US and Chinese economies, and Japan’s own 2019 outlook, may add up to a good year for the yen.

Will the Japanese yen be a safe haven for investors in 2019?
Macroscope | China’s thriving bonds, plus hopes for investment reform, trade talks and stimulus should hearten investors in 2019

It is prudent to have both concerns and confidence regarding China’s economy in 2019, as reforms and trade negotiations continue and policy options can still lift prospects.

1 Jan 2019 - 10:38PM

It is prudent to have both concerns and confidence regarding China’s economy in 2019, as reforms and trade negotiations continue and policy options can still lift prospects.

China’s thriving bonds, plus hopes for investment reform, trade talks and stimulus should hearten investors in 2019
Macroscope | IP and tech control will continue to inflame US-China relations, whatever the outcome of the trade talks

Investors hoping for a quick resolution of the current stand-off over trade should brace themselves for a protracted conflict, as both countries compete to protect their technological edge and strategic interests.

25 Dec 2018 - 3:16AM

Investors hoping for a quick resolution of the current stand-off over trade should brace themselves for a protracted conflict, as both countries compete to protect their technological edge and strategic interests.

IP and tech control will continue to inflame US-China relations, whatever the outcome of the trade talks
Macroscope | Will the yuan weaken further or bounce back next year? First, work out how strong the US dollar and euro are

The yuan might not weaken, despite China’s slowing economy and the trade war. Foreign exchange is relative. For the yuan to weaken, the market would also be making a judgment about the appeal of other currencies.

18 Dec 2018 - 10:23PM

The yuan might not weaken, despite China’s slowing economy and the trade war. Foreign exchange is relative. For the yuan to weaken, the market would also be making a judgment about the appeal of other currencies.

Will the yuan weaken further or bounce back next year? First, work out how strong the US dollar and euro are
Macroscope | Why a stronger yuan, not tariffs, may be Trump’s best hope to shrink US trade deficit

The dollar’s strength has widened the trade deficit by making US exports more expensive and goods it imports cheaper, defeating a purpose of Trump’s tariffs.

12 Dec 2018 - 2:10AM

The dollar’s strength has widened the trade deficit by making US exports more expensive and goods it imports cheaper, defeating a purpose of Trump’s tariffs.

Why a stronger yuan, not tariffs, may be Trump’s best hope to shrink US trade deficit
Macroscope | The Xi-Trump trade truce may not end in a peace treaty, and markets should prepare accordingly

Investors can adjust short-term plans, but the pending US tariff hike has only been delayed for 90 days. And, even if the trade war is resolved for good, investors may have to prepare for more Fed rate rises than expected.

4 Dec 2018 - 10:29PM

Investors can adjust short-term plans, but the pending US tariff hike has only been delayed for 90 days. And, even if the trade war is resolved for good, investors may have to prepare for more Fed rate rises than expected.

The Xi-Trump trade truce may not end in a peace treaty, and markets should prepare accordingly
Macroscope | Is the US dollar’s long climb about to end? And, if so, where should you put your money?

Market watchers are on the alert for a slide in the US dollar, and Asian currencies may be the ones to benefit when the time comes, although that may not be before 2019.

27 Nov 2018 - 10:23PM

Market watchers are on the alert for a slide in the US dollar, and Asian currencies may be the ones to benefit when the time comes, although that may not be before 2019.

Is the US dollar’s long climb about to end? And, if so, where should you put your money?
Macroscope | Don’t blame China’s slowing demand for the fall in oil prices. Instead, look to US sanctions (and waivers) on Iran

Lower prospects for the Chinese economy did not directly cause the recent drop in oil prices. However, US waivers on its new Iran sanctions for China (and others) signalled the collapse of a central pillar of support, leading to fear in the market.

20 Nov 2018 - 10:25PM

Lower prospects for the Chinese economy did not directly cause the recent drop in oil prices. However, US waivers on its new Iran sanctions for China (and others) signalled the collapse of a central pillar of support, leading to fear in the market.

Don’t blame China’s slowing demand for the fall in oil prices. Instead, look to US sanctions (and waivers) on Iran
Macroscope | How low can the yuan go? Signs from the Fed and China’s economy point to further declines against the US dollar

The Federal Reserve’s determination to raise rates and roll back quantitative easing means the dollar is unlikely to weaken. Combine this with weak Chinese economic data, especially concerning autos and homes, and there is reason to anticipate further declines in the yuan.

13 Nov 2018 - 10:25PM

The Federal Reserve’s determination to raise rates and roll back quantitative easing means the dollar is unlikely to weaken. Combine this with weak Chinese economic data, especially concerning autos and homes, and there is reason to anticipate further declines in the yuan.

How low can the yuan go? Signs from the Fed and China’s economy point to further declines against the US dollar
Opinion | The US-China trade war isn’t just about trade – and that’s why Trump and Xi won’t resolve it at the G20

Neal Kimberley says the China-US dispute, from tariffs to intellectual property and Taiwan, runs so deep and the US is feeling so good about its position that one Xi-Trump meeting can’t possibly end it.

6 Nov 2018 - 10:29PM

Neal Kimberley says the China-US dispute, from tariffs to intellectual property and Taiwan, runs so deep and the US is feeling so good about its position that one Xi-Trump meeting can’t possibly end it.

The US-China trade war isn’t just about trade – and that’s why Trump and Xi won’t resolve it at the G20
Macroscope | Why the Japanese yen’s prospects continue to be rosy and there is little policymakers can do about it

Worries about the US-China trade war are fuelling demand for the yen, strengthening the currency to Japanese exporters’ dismay.

31 Oct 2018 - 10:05AM

Worries about the US-China trade war are fuelling demand for the yen, strengthening the currency to Japanese exporters’ dismay.

Why the Japanese yen’s prospects continue to be rosy and there is little policymakers can do about it
Macroscope | Yuan devaluation: why the signs point to a further drop in China’s currency, whether the US likes it or not
  • Debt risk and slowing growth are putting downward pressure on the yuan, and officials are hinting they won’t stand in the way of devaluation
24 Oct 2018 - 11:31AM
  • Debt risk and slowing growth are putting downward pressure on the yuan, and officials are hinting they won’t stand in the way of devaluation
Yuan devaluation: why the signs point to a further drop in China’s currency, whether the US likes it or not
Macroscope | On China’s ‘currency manipulation’, the US should be careful what it wishes for

By squarely blaming China for the weakness of the yuan and insisting it follows a ‘market-determined currency regime’, the US may have misread the likely consequences of China loosening its grip and shedding its capital controls.

16 Oct 2018 - 10:55PM

By squarely blaming China for the weakness of the yuan and insisting it follows a ‘market-determined currency regime’, the US may have misread the likely consequences of China loosening its grip and shedding its capital controls.

On China’s ‘currency manipulation’, the US should be careful what it wishes for
Macroscope | How a stronger US dollar and higher crude prices are a recipe for trouble in oil-importing Asian nations

US sanctions on Iran are driving up oil prices for Asian countries with weaker currencies. China and Hong Kong should be able to cope, but India and Indonesia are already suffering.

9 Oct 2018 - 10:37PM

US sanctions on Iran are driving up oil prices for Asian countries with weaker currencies. China and Hong Kong should be able to cope, but India and Indonesia are already suffering.

How a stronger US dollar and higher crude prices are a recipe for trouble in oil-importing Asian nations
Macroscope | After the trade war, US-China relations will not be the same again

Now Beijing recognises that Trump’s tariff moves – though in the name of fair trade – stem from a change in America’s strategic intent, it, too, is rethinking the bilateral relationship. Neither side is likely to want a return to the old status quo.

2 Oct 2018 - 10:45PM

Now Beijing recognises that Trump’s tariff moves – though in the name of fair trade – stem from a change in America’s strategic intent, it, too, is rethinking the bilateral relationship. Neither side is likely to want a return to the old status quo.

After the trade war, US-China relations will not be the same again
Macroscope | The trade war is here to stay: both China and the US are gearing up for a long, hard fight

Not only is gulf of disagreement between the two too wide to bridge, but neither side is focused on finding a fix: US attention is trained on the larger picture of China’s rise, while Beijing is working to reflate its economy to offset the impact of the trade war.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM

Not only is gulf of disagreement between the two too wide to bridge, but neither side is focused on finding a fix: US attention is trained on the larger picture of China’s rise, while Beijing is working to reflate its economy to offset the impact of the trade war.

The trade war is here to stay: both China and the US are gearing up for a long, hard fight
Macroscope | Why the US-China trade war could turn the heat on the Korean won and Australian dollar next

An intensification of the China-US trade war, combined with Federal Reserve monetary tightening, could spell double trouble for currencies in the Asian region.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM

An intensification of the China-US trade war, combined with Federal Reserve monetary tightening, could spell double trouble for currencies in the Asian region.

Why the US-China trade war could turn the heat on the Korean won and Australian dollar next