Neal Kimberley

Neal Kimberley

UK-based Neal Kimberley has been active in the financial markets since 1985. Having worked in sales and trading in the dealing rooms of major banks in London for many years, he moved to ThomsonReuters in 2009 to provide market analysis. He has been contributing to the Post since 2015 and writes about macroeconomics from a market perspective, with a particular emphasis on currencies and interest rates.

Latest from Neal Kimberley

Macroscope | As the US Federal Reserve tops up the punch bowl, it must remember that the bond market can still intimidate

US bond markets are historically wary of policymakers who appear complacent about inflation risks. When there is fear of future price inflation in the air, markets expect to be compensated appropriately and reprice accordingly.

US bond markets are historically wary of policymakers who appear complacent about inflation risks. When there is fear of future price inflation in the air, markets expect to be compensated appropriately and reprice accordingly.

As the US Federal Reserve tops up the punch bowl, it must remember that the bond market can still intimidate
3 Mar 2021 - 3:08AM
Macroscope | Why oil prices will stay high despite global shift to green energy

The world cannot shift to a low-carbon economy without deploying a lot of high-carbon-producing energy to build green infrastructure. The age of oil might be ending, but for now the price of crude should stay high even as the world goes green.

The world cannot shift to a low-carbon economy without deploying a lot of high-carbon-producing energy to build green infrastructure. The age of oil might be ending, but for now the price of crude should stay high even as the world goes green.

Why oil prices will stay high despite global shift to green energy
24 Feb 2021 - 4:48AM
Macroscope | Could the Japanese yen be a good reflation trade?

While the yen retains its safe haven attributes, Japan’s exporters should be well placed to benefit from the global post-pandemic economic recovery. Japanese government bond nominal yields may not put off investors, given the different outlook for real yields.

While the yen retains its safe haven attributes, Japan’s exporters should be well placed to benefit from the global post-pandemic economic recovery. Japanese government bond nominal yields may not put off investors, given the different outlook for real yields.

Could the Japanese yen be a good reflation trade?
16 Feb 2021 - 11:53PM
Macroscope | Why a stronger yuan is still in China’s best interests

A stronger renminbi will give the PBOC a freer hand to focus on monetary policy that supports the economy without worrying about imported inflation.

A stronger renminbi will give the PBOC a freer hand to focus on monetary policy that supports the economy without worrying about imported inflation.

Why a stronger yuan is still in China’s best interests
10 Feb 2021 - 8:36AM
Macroscope | On financial risk, People’s Bank of China is more credible than the US Fed

In draining cash from the banking system ahead of Lunar New Year, the PBOC is sending a message of caution. In contrast, the Fed is underplaying the connection between cheap credit and a stock market frenzy in the US.

In draining cash from the banking system ahead of Lunar New Year, the PBOC is sending a message of caution. In contrast, the Fed is underplaying the connection between cheap credit and a stock market frenzy in the US.

On financial risk, People’s Bank of China is more credible than the US Fed
3 Feb 2021 - 12:04AM
Macroscope | Why bond investors should see China, not the US, as the ‘land of hope and dreams’

Globally, bond markets are not only underinvested in Chinese government bonds as compared to US Treasuries, but in the process are also forgoing the higher yields that they currently offer over US paper.

Globally, bond markets are not only underinvested in Chinese government bonds as compared to US Treasuries, but in the process are also forgoing the higher yields that they currently offer over US paper.

Why bond investors should see China, not the US, as the ‘land of hope and dreams’
27 Jan 2021 - 4:05AM
Macroscope | Why the US dollar’s mini-revival won’t take the wind out of the yuan rally

The Fed’s policy to keep a lid on Treasury yields, to boost job creation and the economy, will weigh on the value of the US dollar because investors will rationally look for better returns elsewhere, notably China.

The Fed’s policy to keep a lid on Treasury yields, to boost job creation and the economy, will weigh on the value of the US dollar because investors will rationally look for better returns elsewhere, notably China.

Why the US dollar’s mini-revival won’t take the wind out of the yuan rally
20 Jan 2021 - 2:28AM
Macroscope | US-China trade war: expect Biden to change tactics towards Beijing, but not the goals

It is clear Biden feels there is unfinished business from the Obama years that was not covered in Trump’s tariff-dominated approach to trade talks with China, and Beijing should not expect an end to tariffs any time soon.

It is clear Biden feels there is unfinished business from the Obama years that was not covered in Trump’s tariff-dominated approach to trade talks with China, and Beijing should not expect an end to tariffs any time soon.

US-China trade war: expect Biden to change tactics towards Beijing, but not the goals
13 Jan 2021 - 5:38AM
Macroscope | Why a ‘strong dollar’ mantra will not keep the US currency from sliding

Real aim of rhetoric would be to keep government borrowing costs down as fiscal and trade deficits grow. The dollar will be allowed to take the heat in the absence of runaway inflation.

Real aim of rhetoric would be to keep government borrowing costs down as fiscal and trade deficits grow. The dollar will be allowed to take the heat in the absence of runaway inflation.

Why a ‘strong dollar’ mantra will not keep the US currency from sliding
6 Jan 2021 - 4:17AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: rapid response leaves China better placed for 2021 than US, Europe

Overseas capital has moved into yuan-denominated assets and helped fuel a rise in the renminbi’s value. China’s stable economic footing gives it more monetary policy options than Europe or the US and makes it more attractive to investors.

Overseas capital has moved into yuan-denominated assets and helped fuel a rise in the renminbi’s value. China’s stable economic footing gives it more monetary policy options than Europe or the US and makes it more attractive to investors.

Coronavirus recovery: rapid response leaves China better placed for 2021 than US, Europe
30 Dec 2020 - 12:41AM
Macroscope | Global food prices are going up and China won’t be spared, despite the November dip

As a major food importer, China is not immune to rising global prices, driven up by supply issues and a weaker US dollar. A strong yuan can only offer so much protection.

As a major food importer, China is not immune to rising global prices, driven up by supply issues and a weaker US dollar. A strong yuan can only offer so much protection.

Global food prices are going up and China won’t be spared, despite the November dip
23 Dec 2020 - 4:17AM
Macroscope | Yuan strength reflects dollar weakness as much as China’s economic recovery

China’s economic situation justifies some degree of yuan appreciation, but there is more at play than just renminbi strength. Rather, the US dollar has been weakening against several currencies, and this suits American interests.

China’s economic situation justifies some degree of yuan appreciation, but there is more at play than just renminbi strength. Rather, the US dollar has been weakening against several currencies, and this suits American interests.

Yuan strength reflects dollar weakness as much as China’s economic recovery
16 Dec 2020 - 2:34AM
Macroscope | Covid-19 and climate worries may not keep oil prices down for long

China’s economy is firing up, supporting demand for industrial metals and oil. Once the rest of the world follows China into economic recovery, high demand and short supply might mean a higher oil price.

China’s economy is firing up, supporting demand for industrial metals and oil. Once the rest of the world follows China into economic recovery, high demand and short supply might mean a higher oil price.

Covid-19 and climate worries may not keep oil prices down for long
9 Dec 2020 - 1:20AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus’ continued spread and a split Congress threaten the US dollar’s value

Covid-19 cases are soaring, the US economic recovery is faltering and Congress appears unable to help those who need it. Thus, the Fed is likely to face pressure to keep its policies ultra-accommodative, risking further dollar weakness.

Covid-19 cases are soaring, the US economic recovery is faltering and Congress appears unable to help those who need it. Thus, the Fed is likely to face pressure to keep its policies ultra-accommodative, risking further dollar weakness.

Coronavirus’ continued spread and a split Congress threaten the US dollar’s value
2 Dec 2020 - 1:48AM
Macroscope | Biden’s America will be playing catch-up as China’s economy leaps forward

The pandemic might well bring forward the date at which China will overtake the US economy. Meanwhile, Trump’s policies are leaving Biden with a lot of diplomatic relationships to repair, even as Beijing pulls ahead with the RCEP and financial reform.

The pandemic might well bring forward the date at which China will overtake the US economy. Meanwhile, Trump’s policies are leaving Biden with a lot of diplomatic relationships to repair, even as Beijing pulls ahead with the RCEP and financial reform.

Biden’s America will be playing catch-up as China’s economy leaps forward
25 Nov 2020 - 5:36AM
Macroscope | What impact will a coronavirus vaccine have on financial markets?

Not only would a vaccine re-energise equity demand for sectors hard hit by Covid-19, but it could also divert funds back to the US, although Asia will remain attractive. The implications for Treasuries and currencies are more open to question.

Not only would a vaccine re-energise equity demand for sectors hard hit by Covid-19, but it could also divert funds back to the US, although Asia will remain attractive. The implications for Treasuries and currencies are more open to question.

What impact will a coronavirus vaccine have on financial markets?
25 Nov 2020 - 1:04PM
Macroscope | Narrow Biden election win over Trump dims hope of more US coronavirus stimulus

A ‘blue wave’ giving Democrats control of the White House and Congress did not occur, and Republicans are unlikely to support a new aid package. The Fed might have to step in again, putting pressure on the US dollar and boosting confidence in the yuan.

A ‘blue wave’ giving Democrats control of the White House and Congress did not occur, and Republicans are unlikely to support a new aid package. The Fed might have to step in again, putting pressure on the US dollar and boosting confidence in the yuan.

Narrow Biden election win over Trump dims hope of more US coronavirus stimulus
10 Nov 2020 - 10:18PM
Macroscope | What Europe’s coronavirus woes mean for the yuan-euro exchange rate

European governments are still struggling to suppress a Covid-19 pandemic that Beijing now seems to have contained. The policies of the two central banks are also a study in contrasts.

European governments are still struggling to suppress a Covid-19 pandemic that Beijing now seems to have contained. The policies of the two central banks are also a study in contrasts.

What Europe’s coronavirus woes mean for the yuan-euro exchange rate
3 Nov 2020 - 10:32PM
Macroscope | China is relaxed about yuan strength, and that’s good news

China’s central bank governor said the market should decide the exchange rate. This sends a powerful message to currency markets, at a time when international investors are already clamouring for Chinese assets.

China’s central bank governor said the market should decide the exchange rate. This sends a powerful message to currency markets, at a time when international investors are already clamouring for Chinese assets.

China is relaxed about yuan strength, and that’s good news
27 Oct 2020 - 10:15PM
Macroscope | The Australian dollar is under threat from crumbling China relations and further monetary easing

China’s pledge to be carbon neutral by 2060 and political tensions are exposing vulnerabilities in Australia’s economic model. The Australian dollar’s popularity as a source of yield could fade as the central bank pursues looser monetary policy.

China’s pledge to be carbon neutral by 2060 and political tensions are exposing vulnerabilities in Australia’s economic model. The Australian dollar’s popularity as a source of yield could fade as the central bank pursues looser monetary policy.

The Australian dollar is under threat from crumbling China relations and further monetary easing
20 Oct 2020 - 10:22PM
Macroscope | How Joe Biden beating Donald Trump could add fuel to China’s economic recovery

Markets might conclude that Biden’s White House will be less wedded to tariffs, which would be positive for the Chinese economy and its exporters.

Markets might conclude that Biden’s White House will be less wedded to tariffs, which would be positive for the Chinese economy and its exporters.

How Joe Biden beating Donald Trump could add fuel to China’s economic recovery
17 Oct 2020 - 7:12AM
Macroscope | China’s economic recovery is bolstering yuan strength, and will continue to do so

China remains the sole bright spot amid global economic gloom, with the other major economies struggling not only to contain Covid-19 but also revive jobs and morale through unprecedented stimulus.

China remains the sole bright spot amid global economic gloom, with the other major economies struggling not only to contain Covid-19 but also revive jobs and morale through unprecedented stimulus.

China’s economic recovery is bolstering yuan strength, and will continue to do so
7 Oct 2020 - 6:28AM
Macroscope | Next US president must reshape US-China trade relationship

China needs agricultural products that the US can supply and American consumers want goods which China can provide. Whoever wins the White House will need to craft an economic relationship that works for both sides.

China needs agricultural products that the US can supply and American consumers want goods which China can provide. Whoever wins the White House will need to craft an economic relationship that works for both sides.

Next US president must reshape US-China trade relationship
30 Sep 2020 - 12:53AM
Macroscope | The yen is rising yet Japan’s economy is slumping. Call it pandemic economics

It might seem odd that an economy with as many problems as Japan’s should have a currency that enjoys safe-haven status. But whenever international tensions rise or the global outlook darkens, the yen tends to appreciate.

It might seem odd that an economy with as many problems as Japan’s should have a currency that enjoys safe-haven status. But whenever international tensions rise or the global outlook darkens, the yen tends to appreciate.

The yen is rising yet Japan’s economy is slumping. Call it pandemic economics
23 Sep 2020 - 5:42AM
Macroscope | ‘Dual circulation’ and US-China decoupling are two reasons to strengthen the yuan

Decoupling aimed at driving down US demand for Chinese goods will mean less pressure on the yuan to remain competitive against the dollar. China’s latest economic plan will also require a lot of raw materials priced in US dollars, which means they will be cheaper if the Chinese currency is stronger.

Decoupling aimed at driving down US demand for Chinese goods will mean less pressure on the yuan to remain competitive against the dollar. China’s latest economic plan will also require a lot of raw materials priced in US dollars, which means they will be cheaper if the Chinese currency is stronger.

‘Dual circulation’ and US-China decoupling are two reasons to strengthen the yuan
15 Sep 2020 - 10:40PM
Macroscope | Gold continues to glitter for investors, thanks to the Fed’s policy change and US-China geopolitical tensions

The possibility that the recent change in Fed policy could mean higher inflation in the future could underpin the value of gold in the present. The run-up to the US presidential election and China-US geopolitical tension are also bolstering gold’s safe-haven status.

The possibility that the recent change in Fed policy could mean higher inflation in the future could underpin the value of gold in the present. The run-up to the US presidential election and China-US geopolitical tension are also bolstering gold’s safe-haven status.

Gold continues to glitter for investors, thanks to the Fed’s policy change and US-China geopolitical tensions
8 Sep 2020 - 10:48PM
Macroscope | US dollar weakness won’t last. Signs show a turnaround is due

In an evolving situation, dollar bears have to decide if it still makes sense to buy another currency in preference to the dollar. While Chinese data may justify yuan strength versus the dollar, European data does not quite justify euro strength.

In an evolving situation, dollar bears have to decide if it still makes sense to buy another currency in preference to the dollar. While Chinese data may justify yuan strength versus the dollar, European data does not quite justify euro strength.

US dollar weakness won’t last. Signs show a turnaround is due
25 Aug 2020 - 10:22PM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: China’s prudent monetary policy shows where smart money is

In other major economies, central banks’ response to Covid-19 has been a dramatic loosening of monetary policy, but China’s central bank has been more nuanced. The recovery of China’s economy has proceeded without the PBOC going all-in, leaving it more options to use in the future.

In other major economies, central banks’ response to Covid-19 has been a dramatic loosening of monetary policy, but China’s central bank has been more nuanced. The recovery of China’s economy has proceeded without the PBOC going all-in, leaving it more options to use in the future.

Coronavirus recovery: China’s prudent monetary policy shows where smart money is
18 Aug 2020 - 10:32PM
Macroscope | Why a struggling Japan may have no choice but to put up with a stronger yen

Tokyo can do little about US dollar weakness and fading confidence as Treasuries become less attractive, especially when the Trump administration is sensitive about countries weakening their currencies against the dollar.

Tokyo can do little about US dollar weakness and fading confidence as Treasuries become less attractive, especially when the Trump administration is sensitive about countries weakening their currencies against the dollar.

Why a struggling Japan may have no choice but to put up with a stronger yen
12 Aug 2020 - 10:17AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: gold price spike shows real fear of inflation

No doubt the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic is a key driver of gold demand. However, it is also possible central bank policy responses to the pandemic, while perfectly logical now, will have undesirable consequences in time.

No doubt the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic is a key driver of gold demand. However, it is also possible central bank policy responses to the pandemic, while perfectly logical now, will have undesirable consequences in time.

Coronavirus recovery: gold price spike shows real fear of inflation
4 Aug 2020 - 10:18PM