Neal Kimberley

Neal Kimberley

UK-based Neal Kimberley has been active in the financial markets since 1985. Having worked in sales and trading in the dealing rooms of major banks in London for many years, he moved to ThomsonReuters in 2009 to provide market analysis. He has been contributing to the Post since 2015 and writes about macroeconomics from a market perspective, with a particular emphasis on currencies and interest rates.

Latest from Neal Kimberley

Macroscope | When global markets are fearful of the coronavirus, cash-rich Hong Kong investors can afford to be bold

With both plummeting equity prices and US dollar strength, there is an added incentive for Hong Kong investors to act, given that the currency peg affords stability. With 2047 not that far away, now is the time to plan a longer-term portfolio diversification strategy.

24 Mar 2020 - 10:43PM

With both plummeting equity prices and US dollar strength, there is an added incentive for Hong Kong investors to act, given that the currency peg affords stability. With 2047 not that far away, now is the time to plan a longer-term portfolio diversification strategy.

When global markets are fearful of the coronavirus, cash-rich Hong Kong investors can afford to be bold
Macroscope | As markets panic over coronavirus pandemic, the US dollar is king – for the time being

Investors’ dash for cash prompted market sell-offs last week, as US dollar liquidity is critical to the functioning of the global financial system. But looking beyond the crisis, too much liquidity could give rise to asset price inflation.

18 Mar 2020 - 1:02AM

Investors’ dash for cash prompted market sell-offs last week, as US dollar liquidity is critical to the functioning of the global financial system. But looking beyond the crisis, too much liquidity could give rise to asset price inflation.

As markets panic over coronavirus pandemic, the US dollar is king – for the time being
Macroscope | US Fed rate cut alone won’t steady a global economy shaken by the coronavirus

The dramatic spike in demand for safe-haven 10-year Treasuries is a sign that markets expect more from the Fed – it must ensure access to US dollar liquidity remains open.

10 Mar 2020 - 10:25PM

The dramatic spike in demand for safe-haven 10-year Treasuries is a sign that markets expect more from the Fed – it must ensure access to US dollar liquidity remains open.

US Fed rate cut alone won’t steady a global economy shaken by the coronavirus
Macroscope | Why coronavirus-fuelled yen strength is not an indication of Japan’s economic health

Last week’s jump in the yen reflects the unwinding of yen-funded long positions in US equities, not confidence in the Japanese economy or currency. Coronavirus-related disruption to global supply chains and a drop in tourism will hit Japan’s economy hard.

3 Mar 2020 - 10:23PM

Last week’s jump in the yen reflects the unwinding of yen-funded long positions in US equities, not confidence in the Japanese economy or currency. Coronavirus-related disruption to global supply chains and a drop in tourism will hit Japan’s economy hard.

Why coronavirus-fuelled yen strength is not an indication of Japan’s economic health
Macroscope | How the coronavirus crisis could lead to four more years of Donald Trump

The US president could play the epidemic like a trump card in his re-election campaign. Even if the outbreak were to affect US economic data, the Federal Reserve would surely ease policy and then Trump would no doubt claim credit for it.

26 Feb 2020 - 3:07AM

The US president could play the epidemic like a trump card in his re-election campaign. Even if the outbreak were to affect US economic data, the Federal Reserve would surely ease policy and then Trump would no doubt claim credit for it.

How the coronavirus crisis could lead to four more years of Donald Trump
Macroscope | Coronavirus: As crisis drags on, cracks show in global supply chains

After decades of offshoring manufacturing to China, the disruption to supply chains caused by the Covid-19 outbreak may prompt some sectors to consider diversifying production. The car and smartphone industries have proved quite vulnerable.

19 Feb 2020 - 4:07AM

After decades of offshoring manufacturing to China, the disruption to supply chains caused by the Covid-19 outbreak may prompt some sectors to consider diversifying production. The car and smartphone industries have proved quite vulnerable.

Coronavirus: As crisis drags on, cracks show in global supply chains
Macroscope | Coronavirus: Why markets can count on China’s economy to make a swift recovery after the crisis

Beijing is fighting to contain the epidemic, and it will surely kick-start the Chinese economy just as forcefully afterwards. This is simply the politically astute thing to do, given the public unease over Beijing’s handling of the crisis.

12 Feb 2020 - 5:33AM

Beijing is fighting to contain the epidemic, and it will surely kick-start the Chinese economy just as forcefully afterwards. This is simply the politically astute thing to do, given the public unease over Beijing’s handling of the crisis.

Coronavirus: Why markets can count on China’s economy to make a swift recovery after the crisis
Macroscope | How the coronavirus outbreak could trigger a rise in global food prices

With China focused on averting a pandemic and the US Fed fretting over weak inflation, authorities in both countries look set to keep monetary policy settings accommodative for longer. That may well prompt capital to flow into soft commodities.

5 Feb 2020 - 9:00AM

With China focused on averting a pandemic and the US Fed fretting over weak inflation, authorities in both countries look set to keep monetary policy settings accommodative for longer. That may well prompt capital to flow into soft commodities.

How the coronavirus outbreak could trigger a rise in global food prices
Macroscope | Coronavirus outbreak may well depress the renminbi, dashing Donald Trump’s hopes of a weaker dollar

Despite Trump’s efforts to talk down the dollar, currency markets haven’t taken the bait. The coronavirus outbreak makes the case for renminbi appreciation less clear-cut and might also weaken the currencies of economies with close ties to China.

16 Feb 2020 - 4:52PM

Despite Trump’s efforts to talk down the dollar, currency markets haven’t taken the bait. The coronavirus outbreak makes the case for renminbi appreciation less clear-cut and might also weaken the currencies of economies with close ties to China.

Coronavirus outbreak may well depress the renminbi, dashing Donald Trump’s hopes of a weaker dollar
Macroscope | Will the trade shifts sparked by the US-China phase-one deal make the dollar weaker, as Donald Trump wishes? Maybe

As China buys more US goods, possibly at the expense of its trade partners in Europe, Japan and Australia, movements in the currency markets will make winners of some. An overall strengthening of the renminbi, as is likely, may in the end encourage US dollar strength vis-a-vis other currencies.

22 Jan 2020 - 1:31AM

As China buys more US goods, possibly at the expense of its trade partners in Europe, Japan and Australia, movements in the currency markets will make winners of some. An overall strengthening of the renminbi, as is likely, may in the end encourage US dollar strength vis-a-vis other currencies.

Will the trade shifts sparked by the US-China phase-one deal make the dollar weaker, as Donald Trump wishes? Maybe
Macroscope | Why the phase one US-China trade deal should not be scoffed at – it’s about more than pork and soybeans

The deal will allow China to focus on its domestic economic agenda amid a slowdown, including opening doors to foreign firms to serve its growing middle class. It also allays some concerns of the US Federal Reserve.

17 Feb 2020 - 4:36PM

The deal will allow China to focus on its domestic economic agenda amid a slowdown, including opening doors to foreign firms to serve its growing middle class. It also allays some concerns of the US Federal Reserve.

Why the phase one US-China trade deal should not be scoffed at – it’s about more than pork and soybeans
Opinion | The US dollar may have had a bumpy 2019 but don’t expect it to simply go downhill from here

The movement of the US dollar was tied to market expectations of the US-China trade war and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity provisions and interest rate policy. With few better alternatives for investors, the greenback is unlikely to decline broadly in 2020.

8 Jan 2020 - 5:53AM

The movement of the US dollar was tied to market expectations of the US-China trade war and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity provisions and interest rate policy. With few better alternatives for investors, the greenback is unlikely to decline broadly in 2020.

The US dollar may have had a bumpy 2019 but don’t expect it to simply go downhill from here
Macroscope | With the phase one trade deal, China’s economic fortunes look more rosy for 2020. The same can’t be said about Japan’s

China’s economy is showing signs of recovery. But Japan faces serious problems, even with an Olympic boost to the economy. For one thing, the phase one US-China trade deal may well hurt Japan’s manufacturers.

1 Jan 2020 - 1:45AM

China’s economy is showing signs of recovery. But Japan faces serious problems, even with an Olympic boost to the economy. For one thing, the phase one US-China trade deal may well hurt Japan’s manufacturers.

With the phase one trade deal, China’s economic fortunes look more rosy for 2020. The same can’t be said about Japan’s
Macroscope | Hong Kong’s dollar peg has been crucial during the crisis, and should be maintained when it ends

Maintaining Hong Kong’s dollar peg will, should the economy recover, mean interest rates will be lower than is desirable. Keep the peg anyway: the limited outflows during Hong Kong’s crisis show how important it is for economic stability.

18 Dec 2019 - 4:01AM

Maintaining Hong Kong’s dollar peg will, should the economy recover, mean interest rates will be lower than is desirable. Keep the peg anyway: the limited outflows during Hong Kong’s crisis show how important it is for economic stability.

Hong Kong’s dollar peg has been crucial during the crisis, and should be maintained when it ends
Macroscope | As Beijing redraws its agricultural supply lines amid the trade war, US farmers may have lost their China market share for good

It was natural that China, which relies heavily on food imports, would look elsewhere when US tariffs began to bite. But American farmers should not get their hopes up once the trade war ends – other countries, including New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina, are filling the void.

11 Dec 2019 - 5:23AM

It was natural that China, which relies heavily on food imports, would look elsewhere when US tariffs began to bite. But American farmers should not get their hopes up once the trade war ends – other countries, including New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina, are filling the void.

As Beijing redraws its agricultural supply lines amid the trade war, US farmers may have lost their China market share for good
Macroscope | The trade war is just the start: distrust of China is bipartisan in Washington and EU environmental tariffs loom

After years of assuming a closer relationship with China would make it more liberal, the West’s view is changing. Scepticism about Beijing is the one thing US political parties agree on, while an EU carbon tariff could hit China hard.

4 Dec 2019 - 5:27AM

After years of assuming a closer relationship with China would make it more liberal, the West’s view is changing. Scepticism about Beijing is the one thing US political parties agree on, while an EU carbon tariff could hit China hard.

The trade war is just the start: distrust of China is bipartisan in Washington and EU environmental tariffs loom
Macroscope | How the Japanese yen stays strong despite a faltering domestic economy

Yen strength derives from its safe-haven status and the fact that much of Japan’s wealth is held overseas, in foreign assets and currencies; in a crisis, investors repatriate the yen, boosting its demand and giving it strength.

26 Nov 2019 - 10:25PM

Yen strength derives from its safe-haven status and the fact that much of Japan’s wealth is held overseas, in foreign assets and currencies; in a crisis, investors repatriate the yen, boosting its demand and giving it strength.

How the Japanese yen stays strong despite a faltering domestic economy
Macroscope | A protracted trade war may be the final blow that will sink the indebted world economy

Global debt is growing faster than the global economy, which is simply not sustainable. And as the US-China trade war drags on, major economies that are reliant on the global supply chain are running just to stay in the same place.

20 Nov 2019 - 5:01AM

Global debt is growing faster than the global economy, which is simply not sustainable. And as the US-China trade war drags on, major economies that are reliant on the global supply chain are running just to stay in the same place.

A protracted trade war may be the final blow that will sink the indebted world economy
Macroscope | Beijing sends corporate China a €4 billion message: diversify away from US dollar debt

China has capitalised on a low-yield environment in Europe to issue euro-denominated government bonds cheaply. It is also setting an example to Chinese companies, in the hope of weaning them off dollar-denominated debt dependency.

12 Nov 2019 - 10:24PM

China has capitalised on a low-yield environment in Europe to issue euro-denominated government bonds cheaply. It is also setting an example to Chinese companies, in the hope of weaning them off dollar-denominated debt dependency.

Beijing sends corporate China a €4 billion message: diversify away from US dollar debt
Macroscope | A US-China trade war deal, coupled with central bank monetary policy easing, could buck global slowdown predictions

The trade war has worried central banks enough to prompt interest rate cuts. However, the effect of this will only be felt later and could coincide with phase one of a US-China trade settlement.

6 Nov 2019 - 5:34AM

The trade war has worried central banks enough to prompt interest rate cuts. However, the effect of this will only be felt later and could coincide with phase one of a US-China trade settlement.

A US-China trade war deal, coupled with central bank monetary policy easing, could buck global slowdown predictions
Macroscope | In a world where the US dollar dominates, China must strike back by enhancing the yuan’s international appeal

Washington has the US dollar and powerful legislation at its disposal, and can make life difficult for countries just by denying access to the US financial system. Beijing must make the yuan more appealing globally, to mitigate risks to the Chinese economy.

30 Oct 2019 - 4:38AM

Washington has the US dollar and powerful legislation at its disposal, and can make life difficult for countries just by denying access to the US financial system. Beijing must make the yuan more appealing globally, to mitigate risks to the Chinese economy.

In a world where the US dollar dominates, China must strike back by enhancing the yuan’s international appeal
Macroscope | Whether it is the US stick or the Chinese carrot, foreign policy boils down to the use of money, not the military

China dangles carrots by offering belt and road investments, and its vast market and trade, while the US wields the stick of sanctions and threats to withdraw financial support. But both rely on the common influence of money to persuade others.

23 Oct 2019 - 4:10AM

China dangles carrots by offering belt and road investments, and its vast market and trade, while the US wields the stick of sanctions and threats to withdraw financial support. But both rely on the common influence of money to persuade others.

Whether it is the US stick or the Chinese carrot, foreign policy boils down to the use of money, not the military
Macroscope | How the US-China trade talks ‘love fest’ may hit a snag over currency complexities

Trump is selling loved-up negotiations but the trade complexities are unchanged. Beijing is wary of any currency deal reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord while the US has yet to decide if it wants a truly free-floating yuan.

16 Oct 2019 - 2:57AM

Trump is selling loved-up negotiations but the trade complexities are unchanged. Beijing is wary of any currency deal reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord while the US has yet to decide if it wants a truly free-floating yuan.

How the US-China trade talks ‘love fest’ may hit a snag over currency complexities
Macroscope | The US unemployment rate is enviable. It’s consumer confidence America needs to worry about

The latest figures suggest tensions over the trade war with China are starting to hit home. With more tariff trouble brewing on the Europe front, amid an already slowing economy, Fed officials may be forced to consider more forceful monetary easing.

9 Oct 2019 - 12:43AM

The latest figures suggest tensions over the trade war with China are starting to hit home. With more tariff trouble brewing on the Europe front, amid an already slowing economy, Fed officials may be forced to consider more forceful monetary easing.

The US unemployment rate is enviable. It’s consumer confidence America needs to worry about
Macroscope | Rugby World Cup and US trade deal successes can’t hide Japan’s economic troubles

Japan has much to celebrate, in rugby and trade. But challenges remain: its cars are still exposed to US tariffs, exports are plummeting and interest rates are due to stay flat, driving banks to greater risks in search of profit.

1 Oct 2019 - 10:15PM

Japan has much to celebrate, in rugby and trade. But challenges remain: its cars are still exposed to US tariffs, exports are plummeting and interest rates are due to stay flat, driving banks to greater risks in search of profit.

Rugby World Cup and US trade deal successes can’t hide Japan’s economic troubles
Macroscope | Donald Trump won’t like it, but the Fed is keeping the US dollar strong with its rate cut

The US Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates not for domestic reasons but in response to slowing global growth and Trump-induced trade anxiety. Effectively, it is creating space for other central banks to ease rates too.

25 Sep 2019 - 4:20AM

The US Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates not for domestic reasons but in response to slowing global growth and Trump-induced trade anxiety. Effectively, it is creating space for other central banks to ease rates too.

Donald Trump won’t like it, but the Fed is keeping the US dollar strong with its rate cut
Macroscope | Donald Trump is waking up to the fact that ending the trade war with China will help him win in 2020

The US president has figured he needs a deal with China to soften the economic impact tariffs are having on his voter base. Three states swung narrowly to him in 2016, but he might lose them if the trade war continues.

18 Sep 2019 - 2:07AM

The US president has figured he needs a deal with China to soften the economic impact tariffs are having on his voter base. Three states swung narrowly to him in 2016, but he might lose them if the trade war continues.

Donald Trump is waking up to the fact that ending the trade war with China will help him win in 2020
Macroscope | Amid US-China trade war, a new source of tension emerges: Iranian oil

China and the US are looking at a new round of trade talks. But dire US relations with Iran complicate China’s attempts to import Iranian oil and meet its huge energy needs.

11 Sep 2019 - 1:18AM

China and the US are looking at a new round of trade talks. But dire US relations with Iran complicate China’s attempts to import Iranian oil and meet its huge energy needs.

Amid US-China trade war, a new source of tension emerges: Iranian oil
Macroscope | A strong US dollar worries Trump, but it’s no use blaming the Fed or China

It is Donald Trump’s own policies that have helped to create the right conditions for continued greenback strength. Unless those policies change, there is little to be gained from the blame game.

3 Sep 2019 - 10:17PM

It is Donald Trump’s own policies that have helped to create the right conditions for continued greenback strength. Unless those policies change, there is little to be gained from the blame game.

A strong US dollar worries Trump, but it’s no use blaming the Fed or China
Macroscope | Behind the trade war and Trump’s offer to buy Greenland lies growing US discomfort with China’s overseas expansion

China has made no secret of its interest in Arctic resources and has expanded its influence into US spheres of influence. The US president’s anger at Denmark over Greenland wasn’t the first sign that such ambitions trouble Washington.

28 Aug 2019 - 4:21AM

China has made no secret of its interest in Arctic resources and has expanded its influence into US spheres of influence. The US president’s anger at Denmark over Greenland wasn’t the first sign that such ambitions trouble Washington.

Behind the trade war and Trump’s offer to buy Greenland lies growing US discomfort with China’s overseas expansion