Neal Kimberley

Neal Kimberley

UK-based Neal Kimberley has been active in the financial markets since 1985. Having worked in sales and trading in the dealing rooms of major banks in London for many years, he moved to ThomsonReuters in 2009 to provide market analysis. He has been contributing to the Post since 2015 and writes about macroeconomics from a market perspective, with a particular emphasis on currencies and interest rates.

Latest from Neal Kimberley

Macroscope | As Beijing redraws its agricultural supply lines amid the trade war, US farmers may have lost their China market share for good

It was natural that China, which relies heavily on food imports, would look elsewhere when US tariffs began to bite. But American farmers should not get their hopes up once the trade war ends – other countries, including New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina, are filling the void.

11 Dec 2019 - 5:23AM

It was natural that China, which relies heavily on food imports, would look elsewhere when US tariffs began to bite. But American farmers should not get their hopes up once the trade war ends – other countries, including New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina, are filling the void.

As Beijing redraws its agricultural supply lines amid the trade war, US farmers may have lost their China market share for good
Macroscope | The trade war is just the start: distrust of China is bipartisan in Washington and EU environmental tariffs loom

After years of assuming a closer relationship with China would make it more liberal, the West’s view is changing. Scepticism about Beijing is the one thing US political parties agree on, while an EU carbon tariff could hit China hard.

4 Dec 2019 - 5:27AM

After years of assuming a closer relationship with China would make it more liberal, the West’s view is changing. Scepticism about Beijing is the one thing US political parties agree on, while an EU carbon tariff could hit China hard.

The trade war is just the start: distrust of China is bipartisan in Washington and EU environmental tariffs loom
Macroscope | How the Japanese yen stays strong despite a faltering domestic economy

Yen strength derives from its safe-haven status and the fact that much of Japan’s wealth is held overseas, in foreign assets and currencies; in a crisis, investors repatriate the yen, boosting its demand and giving it strength.

26 Nov 2019 - 10:25PM

Yen strength derives from its safe-haven status and the fact that much of Japan’s wealth is held overseas, in foreign assets and currencies; in a crisis, investors repatriate the yen, boosting its demand and giving it strength.

How the Japanese yen stays strong despite a faltering domestic economy
Macroscope | A protracted trade war may be the final blow that will sink the indebted world economy

Global debt is growing faster than the global economy, which is simply not sustainable. And as the US-China trade war drags on, major economies that are reliant on the global supply chain are running just to stay in the same place.

20 Nov 2019 - 5:01AM

Global debt is growing faster than the global economy, which is simply not sustainable. And as the US-China trade war drags on, major economies that are reliant on the global supply chain are running just to stay in the same place.

A protracted trade war may be the final blow that will sink the indebted world economy
Macroscope | Beijing sends corporate China a €4 billion message: diversify away from US dollar debt

China has capitalised on a low-yield environment in Europe to issue euro-denominated government bonds cheaply. It is also setting an example to Chinese companies, in the hope of weaning them off dollar-denominated debt dependency.

12 Nov 2019 - 10:24PM

China has capitalised on a low-yield environment in Europe to issue euro-denominated government bonds cheaply. It is also setting an example to Chinese companies, in the hope of weaning them off dollar-denominated debt dependency.

Beijing sends corporate China a €4 billion message: diversify away from US dollar debt
Macroscope | A US-China trade war deal, coupled with central bank monetary policy easing, could buck global slowdown predictions

The trade war has worried central banks enough to prompt interest rate cuts. However, the effect of this will only be felt later and could coincide with phase one of a US-China trade settlement.

6 Nov 2019 - 5:34AM

The trade war has worried central banks enough to prompt interest rate cuts. However, the effect of this will only be felt later and could coincide with phase one of a US-China trade settlement.

A US-China trade war deal, coupled with central bank monetary policy easing, could buck global slowdown predictions
Macroscope | In a world where the US dollar dominates, China must strike back by enhancing the yuan’s international appeal

Washington has the US dollar and powerful legislation at its disposal, and can make life difficult for countries just by denying access to the US financial system. Beijing must make the yuan more appealing globally, to mitigate risks to the Chinese economy.

30 Oct 2019 - 4:38AM

Washington has the US dollar and powerful legislation at its disposal, and can make life difficult for countries just by denying access to the US financial system. Beijing must make the yuan more appealing globally, to mitigate risks to the Chinese economy.

In a world where the US dollar dominates, China must strike back by enhancing the yuan’s international appeal
Macroscope | Whether it is the US stick or the Chinese carrot, foreign policy boils down to the use of money, not the military

China dangles carrots by offering belt and road investments, and its vast market and trade, while the US wields the stick of sanctions and threats to withdraw financial support. But both rely on the common influence of money to persuade others.

23 Oct 2019 - 4:10AM

China dangles carrots by offering belt and road investments, and its vast market and trade, while the US wields the stick of sanctions and threats to withdraw financial support. But both rely on the common influence of money to persuade others.

Whether it is the US stick or the Chinese carrot, foreign policy boils down to the use of money, not the military
Macroscope | How the US-China trade talks ‘love fest’ may hit a snag over currency complexities

Trump is selling loved-up negotiations but the trade complexities are unchanged. Beijing is wary of any currency deal reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord while the US has yet to decide if it wants a truly free-floating yuan.

16 Oct 2019 - 2:57AM

Trump is selling loved-up negotiations but the trade complexities are unchanged. Beijing is wary of any currency deal reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord while the US has yet to decide if it wants a truly free-floating yuan.

How the US-China trade talks ‘love fest’ may hit a snag over currency complexities
Macroscope | The US unemployment rate is enviable. It’s consumer confidence America needs to worry about

The latest figures suggest tensions over the trade war with China are starting to hit home. With more tariff trouble brewing on the Europe front, amid an already slowing economy, Fed officials may be forced to consider more forceful monetary easing.

9 Oct 2019 - 12:43AM

The latest figures suggest tensions over the trade war with China are starting to hit home. With more tariff trouble brewing on the Europe front, amid an already slowing economy, Fed officials may be forced to consider more forceful monetary easing.

The US unemployment rate is enviable. It’s consumer confidence America needs to worry about
Macroscope | Rugby World Cup and US trade deal successes can’t hide Japan’s economic troubles

Japan has much to celebrate, in rugby and trade. But challenges remain: its cars are still exposed to US tariffs, exports are plummeting and interest rates are due to stay flat, driving banks to greater risks in search of profit.

1 Oct 2019 - 10:15PM

Japan has much to celebrate, in rugby and trade. But challenges remain: its cars are still exposed to US tariffs, exports are plummeting and interest rates are due to stay flat, driving banks to greater risks in search of profit.

Rugby World Cup and US trade deal successes can’t hide Japan’s economic troubles
Macroscope | Donald Trump won’t like it, but the Fed is keeping the US dollar strong with its rate cut

The US Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates not for domestic reasons but in response to slowing global growth and Trump-induced trade anxiety. Effectively, it is creating space for other central banks to ease rates too.

25 Sep 2019 - 4:20AM

The US Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates not for domestic reasons but in response to slowing global growth and Trump-induced trade anxiety. Effectively, it is creating space for other central banks to ease rates too.

Donald Trump won’t like it, but the Fed is keeping the US dollar strong with its rate cut
Macroscope | Donald Trump is waking up to the fact that ending the trade war with China will help him win in 2020

The US president has figured he needs a deal with China to soften the economic impact tariffs are having on his voter base. Three states swung narrowly to him in 2016, but he might lose them if the trade war continues.

18 Sep 2019 - 2:07AM

The US president has figured he needs a deal with China to soften the economic impact tariffs are having on his voter base. Three states swung narrowly to him in 2016, but he might lose them if the trade war continues.

Donald Trump is waking up to the fact that ending the trade war with China will help him win in 2020
Macroscope | Amid US-China trade war, a new source of tension emerges: Iranian oil

China and the US are looking at a new round of trade talks. But dire US relations with Iran complicate China’s attempts to import Iranian oil and meet its huge energy needs.

11 Sep 2019 - 1:18AM

China and the US are looking at a new round of trade talks. But dire US relations with Iran complicate China’s attempts to import Iranian oil and meet its huge energy needs.

Amid US-China trade war, a new source of tension emerges: Iranian oil
Macroscope | A strong US dollar worries Trump, but it’s no use blaming the Fed or China

It is Donald Trump’s own policies that have helped to create the right conditions for continued greenback strength. Unless those policies change, there is little to be gained from the blame game.

3 Sep 2019 - 10:17PM

It is Donald Trump’s own policies that have helped to create the right conditions for continued greenback strength. Unless those policies change, there is little to be gained from the blame game.

A strong US dollar worries Trump, but it’s no use blaming the Fed or China
Macroscope | Behind the trade war and Trump’s offer to buy Greenland lies growing US discomfort with China’s overseas expansion

China has made no secret of its interest in Arctic resources and has expanded its influence into US spheres of influence. The US president’s anger at Denmark over Greenland wasn’t the first sign that such ambitions trouble Washington.

28 Aug 2019 - 4:21AM

China has made no secret of its interest in Arctic resources and has expanded its influence into US spheres of influence. The US president’s anger at Denmark over Greenland wasn’t the first sign that such ambitions trouble Washington.

Behind the trade war and Trump’s offer to buy Greenland lies growing US discomfort with China’s overseas expansion
Macroscope | Global currency markets continue to be roiled by US-China trade war

Trade war tensions continue to ripple through currencies, weakening the euro and driving up safe havens like the Swiss franc, yen and, ironically, the US dollar. Continued yuan weakness also risks sparking currency wars.

21 Aug 2019 - 1:37AM

Trade war tensions continue to ripple through currencies, weakening the euro and driving up safe havens like the Swiss franc, yen and, ironically, the US dollar. Continued yuan weakness also risks sparking currency wars.

Global currency markets continue to be roiled by US-China trade war
Macroscope | How Donald Trump’s currency war may end up hurting the US economy, rather than China

The ‘currency manipulator’ tag may turn out to be a paper tiger. More importantly, if China recognises that yuan weakness is not in its interests and sells US-denominated assets to stabilise it, the sale of US Treasuries could add to a tightening of US financial conditions.

14 Aug 2019 - 1:27AM

The ‘currency manipulator’ tag may turn out to be a paper tiger. More importantly, if China recognises that yuan weakness is not in its interests and sells US-denominated assets to stabilise it, the sale of US Treasuries could add to a tightening of US financial conditions.

How Donald Trump’s currency war may end up hurting the US economy, rather than China
Macroscope | What is driving Donald Trump’s relentless trade war with China? Look to the 2020 US presidential election

As Trump eyes re-election in 2020, Chinese goods are fair game. That he will be hurting US consumers is a risk he seems willing to take. But China just may be pushed too far.

7 Aug 2019 - 4:15AM

As Trump eyes re-election in 2020, Chinese goods are fair game. That he will be hurting US consumers is a risk he seems willing to take. But China just may be pushed too far.

What is driving Donald Trump’s relentless trade war with China? Look to the 2020 US presidential election
Macroscope | Why China may be ready for a strong yuan, and the US could follow up with a weak dollar policy

The yuan could emerge as a rival to the greenback, as Beijing looks ready to adopt a de facto ‘strong yuan’ policy. And there will be room for the yuan to extend its global footprint if Washington chooses to weaken the dollar’s dominance.

6 Aug 2019 - 10:57AM

The yuan could emerge as a rival to the greenback, as Beijing looks ready to adopt a de facto ‘strong yuan’ policy. And there will be room for the yuan to extend its global footprint if Washington chooses to weaken the dollar’s dominance.

Why China may be ready for a strong yuan, and the US could follow up with a weak dollar policy
Macroscope | China is wise to boost its gold reserves as a weaker US dollar looms and currency wars beckon

China’s central bank is piling into gold, the traditional safe haven, as bond yields go negative and the US considers ditching its ‘strong dollar’ mantra, potentially igniting currency wars.

24 Jul 2019 - 5:43AM

China’s central bank is piling into gold, the traditional safe haven, as bond yields go negative and the US considers ditching its ‘strong dollar’ mantra, potentially igniting currency wars.

China is wise to boost its gold reserves as a weaker US dollar looms and currency wars beckon
Macroscope | The Fed has no real reason to cut rates, unless it’s to save the US economy from Donald Trump’s tariffs

The Federal Reserve’s signalling of a rate cut is out of the ordinary, given the strength of US economic data. Are Trump’s trade war and tariffs doing that much damage to the US economy?

17 Jul 2019 - 3:35AM

The Federal Reserve’s signalling of a rate cut is out of the ordinary, given the strength of US economic data. Are Trump’s trade war and tariffs doing that much damage to the US economy?

The Fed has no real reason to cut rates, unless it’s to save the US economy from Donald Trump’s tariffs
Macroscope | In a Trumpian world, Japan may have little choice but to accept a stronger yen

Japan’s Ministry of Finance is unlikely to act to prevent yen strength at a time when US President Donald Trump is accusing other countries of currency manipulation and complaining about Tokyo’s unfair relationship with Washington.

10 Jul 2019 - 12:34AM

Japan’s Ministry of Finance is unlikely to act to prevent yen strength at a time when US President Donald Trump is accusing other countries of currency manipulation and complaining about Tokyo’s unfair relationship with Washington.

In a Trumpian world, Japan may have little choice but to accept a stronger yen
Macroscope | Between Fed rate cuts and the dominant US dollar, Donald Trump can’t have it all

Has the Trump administration forgotten what happened after Richard Nixon pressured the Fed to pump up the economy in 1972? Also, Washington’s sanctions on other countries might turn them against the US financial system and the dollar.

3 Jul 2019 - 12:04AM

Has the Trump administration forgotten what happened after Richard Nixon pressured the Fed to pump up the economy in 1972? Also, Washington’s sanctions on other countries might turn them against the US financial system and the dollar.

Between Fed rate cuts and the dominant US dollar, Donald Trump can’t have it all
Macroscope | Yuan appreciation might be the unintended consequence of interest-rate cuts in the US and Europe

Both the US dollar and the euro came under pressure after announcements by the Fed and European Central Bank chiefs that interest-rate cuts could be in the offing. If the Bank of Japan eases monetary policy further, the yen would be less attractive to currency investors.

25 Jun 2019 - 10:32PM

Both the US dollar and the euro came under pressure after announcements by the Fed and European Central Bank chiefs that interest-rate cuts could be in the offing. If the Bank of Japan eases monetary policy further, the yen would be less attractive to currency investors.

Yuan appreciation might be the unintended consequence of interest-rate cuts in the US and Europe
Macroscope | Despite extradition protests, China’s economic stimulus and US monetary policy easing leave Hong Kong well placed

China’s economic stimulus measures and the US Fed’s expected interest rate cut are likely to boost the Hang Seng Index, which in turn will support the Hong Kong dollar. Traders shorting the currency should rethink their strategy.

18 Jun 2019 - 10:34PM

China’s economic stimulus measures and the US Fed’s expected interest rate cut are likely to boost the Hang Seng Index, which in turn will support the Hong Kong dollar. Traders shorting the currency should rethink their strategy.

Despite extradition protests, China’s economic stimulus and US monetary policy easing leave Hong Kong well placed
Macroscope | From rare earths to soy, the trade war will force the US and China to diversify supply

The US has started looking into alternative suppliers for the elements that power hi-tech. Beijing has already done the same with soy, and even a trade war resolution won’t stop this process.

12 Jun 2019 - 2:43AM

The US has started looking into alternative suppliers for the elements that power hi-tech. Beijing has already done the same with soy, and even a trade war resolution won’t stop this process.

From rare earths to soy, the trade war will force the US and China to diversify supply
Macroscope | It’s not just China – the Trump administration has launched a dangerous war on the global trading order

The trade war is not just a strategy; Trump has a clear ideological enmity for trade deficits with any country, ally or rival. Conveniently, he rarely discusses those countries with whom the US enjoys a surplus in services.

5 Jun 2019 - 4:16AM

The trade war is not just a strategy; Trump has a clear ideological enmity for trade deficits with any country, ally or rival. Conveniently, he rarely discusses those countries with whom the US enjoys a surplus in services.

It’s not just China – the Trump administration has launched a dangerous war on the global trading order
Macroscope | Trump doesn’t need a trade deal with China, and markets had better factor in greater risk aversion

The US’ recent escalations towards China are inflammatory – which is no accident. This suggests Washington is in no hurry to resolve the dispute, despite the economic toll it’s taking.

28 May 2019 - 10:27PM

The US’ recent escalations towards China are inflammatory – which is no accident. This suggests Washington is in no hurry to resolve the dispute, despite the economic toll it’s taking.

Trump doesn’t need a trade deal with China, and markets had better factor in greater risk aversion
Macroscope | Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on China are neither a one-off nor unique among American presidents

Tariffs may be here to stay because Donald Trump touts them as a general policy, not just a strategy for containing China. He also claims America’s beloved former presidents have supported tariffs – and he’s right.

21 May 2019 - 11:57PM

Tariffs may be here to stay because Donald Trump touts them as a general policy, not just a strategy for containing China. He also claims America’s beloved former presidents have supported tariffs – and he’s right.

Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on China are neither a one-off nor unique among American presidents