Opinion | From Donald Trump curbing his Twitter use to Xi Jinping retiring, here’s what won’t happen in 2020 – but probably should

While it’s very unlikely that the world will make substantial progress on climate change or come to a complete agreement on geopolitical issues, some simpler developments are also unlikely to come to pass

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Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) welcomes US President Donald Trump to China at a ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on November 8, 2017. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies have had a testing year. Photo: AFP

Published: 11:00am, 31 Dec 2019Updated: 11:00am, 31 Dec 2019

Predictions for 2020? It’s a lot easier to predict what probably won’t happen in 2020 than what will. So why get taken for a wild ride on the sunny side of the street by “experts” only to get our hopes up, then dashed? There are many things we can easily agree will not happen next year.

For starters, you can safely bet that serious progress on climate change won’t occur. You can also bet against global carbon emissions declining substantially. An outbreak of “we-are-all-in-this together” unanimity at the United Nations Security Council on geopolitical issues is also not going to happen. Will US President Donald Trump suddenly cut down on Twitter time and morph into a dignified world political figure? Not happening.

That’s the obvious list. What’s far more interesting is what probably won’t happen in 2020 but arguably should. This less obvious list is offered as light finger food for thought. The intent here is to elicit vehement disagreement from you, while also marking where we earthlings are currently teetering on the high wire between dystopia and utopia.

This won’t happen in 2020: Chinese President Xi Jinping makes a visit to Hong Kong. In front of a well-known Chinese restaurant on Victoria Peak, Xi announces the need to end the violent protests and, pointing out that many mainland villages already hold local elections (sort of), concedes to the demand for universal suffrage at all levels of elections in Hong Kong. This is not a climbdown, he says, but a gracious extension of some mainland electoral rights to Hong Kong.

Here’s a prediction for the other economic superpower in East Asia that won’t come true: before the grand opening of the 2020 Summer Olympics, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bows deeply no less than seven times in apology to South Korea for Japan’s abduction of Korean women to serve as sex slaves during World War II, and other grave misdeeds of the past. The apology ceremony takes place at the gate of the Meiji Shrine, near the new Tokyo National Stadium in Shinjuku.

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