Inside Out | Amid Trump discord, China must keep trying to deepen its friendship with Europe in 2020

United States President Donald Trump’s “bull in a china shop” assault on the norms of civilised diplomatic behaviour, on institutions that have driven peace and prosperity over the past seven decades, and indiscriminately on allies and enemies alike, have given President Xi Jinping and his leadership team in Beijing a marvellous and unexpected opportunity to make friends across a suspicious world.

Sixteen months ago, as China’s tariff war with the US was gathering momentum, I mischievously penned an open letter to Xi, calling on him to resist pressure from Trump for a self-serving trade deal, and instead to build on the foundations laid in his 2017 call in Davos for rules-based trade and the use of multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organisation to solve trade disagreements.

I suggested that he shun US pressure and work instead with Japan as head of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the European Union and Asean at the heart of the 16-economy Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This group totalling over 50 countries might jointly tackle urgent trade disagreements and respond to the many complaints about China’s international trade practices – in particular its behind-the-border barriers to foreign companies, treatment of intellectual property, extensive use of subsidies, and preferential treatment of state-owned enterprises.

Sixteen months later, I admit in all modesty that my advice has been ignored. China and the US have held over a dozen rounds of negotiations towards the partial trade deal announced recently. Meanwhile, EU officials are complaining about postponed meetings and “promise fatigue” as it enters the seventh year of negotiation on an investment agreement with China. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ RCEP initiative remains half-baked. And China remains on the margins of so-far forlorn efforts to repurpose the WTO and rescue its dispute settlement regime.

President Xi still gives lip service to the need to follow multilateral rules and avoid bilateralism. The South China Morning Post recently reported a top Chinese trade official as saying: “The [US] deal should abide by multilateralism and be based on market rules … Import arrangements should be in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organisation.” But quite how Beijing can honour a commitment to boost US imports by at least US$200 billion a year without squeezing other trade partners and breaking WTO rules has yet to be seen.