The killing of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani is a reality check for China’s Middle East aspirations
- Hopes that China’s presence in the volatile region could provide some needed stability now appear too optimistic in light of the US’ targeted strike
- A full-blown US-Iran confrontation would be bad news for Beijing, undermining its push for belt and road development
Beijing said the US drone strike against the Iranian general, who headed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force and was responsible for Iran’s overseas military and intelligence operations, was a form of abuse.
Despite Wang’s words of commitment, Soleimani’s elimination largely contradicts the thesis of those who claim China’s presence and activism in the region could work as a deterrent to Washington’s military adventurism.
Beijing cannot deter the US in the region, and probably cannot mitigate Iran’s ambitions
The surgical operation against Soleimani came after months of escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.
The Iranian regime could now retaliate against US forces and interests in the Middle East, launch new attacks on Western merchant vessels or even try to close the Strait of Hormuz, where about a fifth of the world’s oil supplies passes daily.
But the Chinese would also look with concern at possible Iranian covert operations (either directly or by proxies) against US assets in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan or against Israel, as they would all have a dramatic destabilising effect in the area, negatively affecting the expansion of the belt and road scheme, which is aimed at turning China into the driving force of global trade.
Furthermore, a full-blown confrontation between Iran and the US would imperil multiple efforts by the international community to put an end to conflicts that have turned devastated countries into hotbeds and safe havens for Islamic terrorist organisations, including for Uygur militants from China’s northwestern province of Xinjiang, who are active both in Syria and Afghanistan.
The death of Soleimani is a reality check for China’s Middle East aspirations. Beijing cannot deter the US in the region, and probably cannot mitigate Iran’s ambitions.
So far, Chinese special envoys to the greater Middle East have not yielded any substantial result, be it the civil war in Syria, the conflict in Yemen, the Saudi-Iranian cold war, the Israeli-Palestinian dispute or Afghanistan’s civil strife.
This has made it impossible for China to focus on its primary objective in the vast area – laying the groundwork for investment in the reconstruction of these war-torn nations.
Chinese diplomacy worked well in finalising the Iran nuclear agreement, but at the time it was supported by the European Union, and had to deal with a US administration that was truly seeking an accord with the Iranians.
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Perhaps Chinese diplomats are still not used to the niceties of Middle Eastern politics. The major problem for China is that it must navigate a mixed bag of relations with countries that are constantly at odds with one another.
Arms sales are no different. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China sold US$27 million worth of weapons to Iran between 2013 and 2018, while Saudi Arabia purchased Chinese weaponry worth US$125 million. It has also been reported that Riyadh has accelerated its ballistic missile programme with the help of Beijing.
More importantly, there is no appetite in China for a direct involvement in the many conflicts ravaging the Middle East. The fact that the US may shift its focus from the South China Sea and trade war to Iran could be a consolation prize for Beijing, but the potential downside would probably be far more significant.
Emanuele Scimia is an independent journalist and foreign affairs analyst
