
George W. Bush’s disastrous Iraq war paved the way for China’s rise. Is Trump about to make the same mistake?
- China joined the WTO and grew into an economic giant in the time the US was fixated on fighting al-Qaeda. It’s a lesson Trump appears not to have learned
- Despite designating China a strategic adversary, the assassination of Soleimani threatens to pitch the US into another bruising Middle East conflict
With Trump’s latest blunder, history may not be repeating itself, but it is certainly rhyming. When George W. Bush began his presidency in January 2001, his neoconservative advisers identified China as the biggest long-term threat to the US. So his administration labelled China a “strategic competitor” and set to work on containing America’s Asian rival.
Everything changed on September 11, 2001, when the US was struck by the single deadliest terrorist attack in history. The Bush administration became so preoccupied with retaliating against al-Qaeda – an objective that led to the catastrophic decision to invade Iraq two years later – that it all but forgot the distant spectre of an Asian superpower.
In this sense, China owes its “economic miracle” to the 9/11 terrorist attacks – or, more precisely, to the Bush administration’s disastrous response. Two decades from now, we may well be saying the same about the Soleimani assassination.
Then Trump had Soleimani killed, and all eyes turned towards Iran. If the conflict continues to escalate – even if it stops short of all-out war – the US will most likely redirect significant resources towards confronting the Islamic Republic, and, like after 9/11, move China to the foreign-policy back-burner.
For Chinese President Xi Jinping, capitalising on this shift will require a carefully calibrated response. The events unfolding in the Middle East present a tantalising strategic opportunity for China. But, as Xi probably recognises, his best bet is to declare support for Iran – and continue to import Iranian oil surreptitiously, in defiance of US sanctions – but avoid provoking Trump, say, by supplying weapons to the Iranians.
But, even as China limits its involvement, it cannot go entirely unnoticed. The country’s growing power – and America’s interest in containing it – will factor into the strategic calculus of both sides in the US-Iran conflict.
If Iran’s leaders believe that the US will seek to avoid committing the same strategic mistakes as Bush, including vis-à-vis China, they may opt for bolder retaliation.
Soleimani killing a reality check for China’s Middle East aspirations
As for the US, the more sober-minded in Washington will undoubtedly advocate a measured response to any Iranian retaliation, not least to avoid losing sight of the China challenge.
Seventeen years ago, Bush entered into a war of choice in the Middle East that, besides costing huge amounts of US blood and treasure, derailed efforts to contain China. Trump can still avoid making the same mistake.
Minxin Pei is professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Copyright: Project Syndicate
