Advertisement
David Brown

Why the coronavirus threat, new trade barriers and massive global debt will not dampen stock markets

  • Central banks seem committed to loose monetary policy, which means the wall of money they have created since the 2008 financial crisis needs to find a home
  • Negative yields in mainstream bond markets, meanwhile, will push investors towards equities

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
US President Donald Trump gestures as he leaves a news conference at the 50th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22. Photo: Reuters
Now that the party in the Swiss Alps is over, it’s time for world leaders to get down to the job of jump-starting a post-Davos global recovery. How they do that in this new world order of growing policy inertia, trade frictions and economic isolationism is open to speculation, but not impossible.
Advertisement

Multilateral accord may seem thin on the ground, just at the moment when there’s a dire need for a bigger collective effort to finish the job which began in the dark days of the 2008 financial crash. But getting the global economy back on track for durable, sustainable recovery is just as imperative now as it was over a decade ago. It’s definitely time for more meaningful action. 

After all, this is supposed to be the year that global recovery gets back into gear. It may be early days but global confidence is floundering, global stock market sentiment appears to be at the top end of the equity cycle and investors are beginning to find all sorts of excuses to be more cautious.

The coronavirus contagion, the worry about new trade barriers emerging, dangerously high global debt levels and despondency about a new economic downturn are all playing their part. It is plain to see in the latest global purchasing managers’ surveys, in which there’s a general indifference about the outlook. Uncertainty is taking its toll.
Advertisement

On the positive side, none of these problems should be insurmountable and patience should be rewarded. Sophisticated financial economies are used to challenging circumstances and global policymakers, not least the major central banks, should have it covered.

loading
Advertisement