A lone customer sits in an empty cafe in Beijing on February 5, as China fights to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: AFP A lone customer sits in an empty cafe in Beijing on February 5, as China fights to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: AFP
A lone customer sits in an empty cafe in Beijing on February 5, as China fights to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: AFP
Aidan Yao
Opinion

Opinion

Macroscope by Aidan Yao

Three ways the coronavirus crisis could play out for China’s economy in 2020

  • In the best-case scenario, the crisis may blow over by the end of the first quarter, and do minimal damage to the economy
  • In the worst case, if China fails to contain the virus’ spread, it could expect painful adjustments and possibly structural damage to its economy, with spillover impact on other economies

A lone customer sits in an empty cafe in Beijing on February 5, as China fights to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: AFP A lone customer sits in an empty cafe in Beijing on February 5, as China fights to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: AFP
A lone customer sits in an empty cafe in Beijing on February 5, as China fights to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: AFP
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Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers. Prior to joining AXA IM, he was a senior financial market analyst at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for two years. He started his career at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 2007, serving as an economist and later senior financial market analyst until late 2011. He holds a master degree in finance (2006) and a bachelor degree in economics and finance (2005) from the University of Otago (NZ). He is also a chartered financial analyst.