Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers. Prior to joining AXA IM, he was a senior financial market analyst at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for two years. He started his career at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 2007, serving as an economist and later senior financial market analyst until late 2011. He holds a master degree in finance (2006) and a bachelor degree in economics and finance (2005) from the University of Otago (NZ). He is also a chartered financial analyst.

Latest from Aidan Yao

Macroscope | China-EU investment deal must fight scepticism to reach full economic potential

China’s enthusiasm for the deal and the reform opportunities it affords are not enough. The EU must overcome scepticism and come fully on board for the deal to shine.

13 Jan 2021 - 4:45PM

China’s enthusiasm for the deal and the reform opportunities it affords are not enough. The EU must overcome scepticism and come fully on board for the deal to shine.

China-EU investment deal must fight scepticism to reach full economic potential
Macroscope | How RCEP will boost Asian integration in trade, supply chains and strategic ties

RCEP represents the most significant, ambitious regional trade deal for decades, with medium and long-term benefits. Strengthened economic ties and standard alignments will help ensure China’s lost supply chain stays in Asia – to the benefit of members and the detriment of India.

16 Dec 2020 - 5:06PM

RCEP represents the most significant, ambitious regional trade deal for decades, with medium and long-term benefits. Strengthened economic ties and standard alignments will help ensure China’s lost supply chain stays in Asia – to the benefit of members and the detriment of India.

How RCEP will boost Asian integration in trade, supply chains and strategic ties
Macroscope | As China’s economy powers up, what’s the growth outlook for 2021?

China has succeeded in containing the spread of Covid-19 and is at the forefront in the race for a vaccine, which will boost its economy. However, the scrapping of some stimulus measures will add downward pressure.

2 Dec 2020 - 10:28PM

China has succeeded in containing the spread of Covid-19 and is at the forefront in the race for a vaccine, which will boost its economy. However, the scrapping of some stimulus measures will add downward pressure.

As China’s economy powers up, what’s the growth outlook for 2021?
Macroscope | Joe Biden’s path on China and US economic recovery is likely to be similar to Donald Trump’s

Many of the underlying issues that plagued the Trump administration remain, including US-China competition, national security concerns and populism. Biden’s relatively narrow victory with a divided Congress could still bode well for Asia if a more modest stimulus package passes after his inauguration.

19 Nov 2020 - 5:10AM

Many of the underlying issues that plagued the Trump administration remain, including US-China competition, national security concerns and populism. Biden’s relatively narrow victory with a divided Congress could still bode well for Asia if a more modest stimulus package passes after his inauguration.

Joe Biden’s path on China and US economic recovery is likely to be similar to Donald Trump’s
Macroscope | China’s roaring economy has sparked a yuan rally, but it may not last

Demand for the yuan has spiked on the back of a global appetite for China’s goods and renminbi bonds, thanks to its revitalised industrial sector and prudent monetary policy. But in the medium to long term, yuan strength against the dollar will also depend on US macro policies.

4 Nov 2020 - 10:16PM

Demand for the yuan has spiked on the back of a global appetite for China’s goods and renminbi bonds, thanks to its revitalised industrial sector and prudent monetary policy. But in the medium to long term, yuan strength against the dollar will also depend on US macro policies.

China’s roaring economy has sparked a yuan rally, but it may not last
Macroscope | Donald Trump or Joe Biden: how different US election outcomes could play out in markets and in China

A disputed US election would be unnerving for markets. A Biden victory, coupled with a split Congress, could be troubling for the US, but it would be an opportune time for China to lure investors away.

22 Oct 2020 - 2:45AM

A disputed US election would be unnerving for markets. A Biden victory, coupled with a split Congress, could be troubling for the US, but it would be an opportune time for China to lure investors away.

Donald Trump or Joe Biden: how different US election outcomes could play out in markets and in China
Macroscope | What investors should understand about China’s ‘dual circulation’ strategy

Domestically, Beijing will focus on technological progress, boosting consumption, urbanisation and supply-chain enhancement. While China may cut belt and road projects and outbound investment, the strategy’s aim is not to close off the economy.

8 Oct 2020 - 5:49AM

Domestically, Beijing will focus on technological progress, boosting consumption, urbanisation and supply-chain enhancement. While China may cut belt and road projects and outbound investment, the strategy’s aim is not to close off the economy.

What investors should understand about China’s ‘dual circulation’ strategy
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: what China’s blockbuster August economic data reveals

China’s economic growth has accelerated faster than expected and the recovery has become more broad-based. This should result in the fine-tuning of monetary policy stimulus, with fiscal policy now expected to do the heavy lifting.

24 Sep 2020 - 4:20AM

China’s economic growth has accelerated faster than expected and the recovery has become more broad-based. This should result in the fine-tuning of monetary policy stimulus, with fiscal policy now expected to do the heavy lifting.

Coronavirus recovery: what China’s blockbuster August economic data reveals
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: Fed’s inflation shift could be good news for China

Policy changes could dictate a very different Fed reaction to an improved economy compared to under the old rules. Generous stimulus that suppresses US interest rates could create abundant capital inflows that benefit China, removing its need to create its own liquidity.

10 Sep 2020 - 6:54AM

Policy changes could dictate a very different Fed reaction to an improved economy compared to under the old rules. Generous stimulus that suppresses US interest rates could create abundant capital inflows that benefit China, removing its need to create its own liquidity.

Coronavirus recovery: Fed’s inflation shift could be good news for China
Macroscope | US-China trade war: who is really bleeding more from Donald Trump’s tariffs?

The US president sought to bring jobs and manufacturing back home. But while China has lost market share in the US, it is to other exporters like Vietnam. Also, China appears to have figured out how to maintain supply chains in the region.

27 Aug 2020 - 4:52AM

The US president sought to bring jobs and manufacturing back home. But while China has lost market share in the US, it is to other exporters like Vietnam. Also, China appears to have figured out how to maintain supply chains in the region.

US-China trade war: who is really bleeding more from Donald Trump’s tariffs?
Macroscope | China’s role in global supply chains will change, but probably not overnight

China’s PPE and tech industries are likely to be hardest hit by supply chain reconfiguration, given the West’s growing wariness of security risks. But China can slow the tide of manufacturing moving out.

13 Aug 2020 - 4:33AM

China’s PPE and tech industries are likely to be hardest hit by supply chain reconfiguration, given the West’s growing wariness of security risks. But China can slow the tide of manufacturing moving out.

China’s role in global supply chains will change, but probably not overnight
Macroscope | Why China is not gunning for a roaring economic recovery

China’s GDP rebound belies an uneven recovery and a widening gap between the real economy and capital markets. Instead of more stimulus, Beijing will want to rebalance the economy and carefully unwind policy easing.

29 Jul 2020 - 10:22PM

China’s GDP rebound belies an uneven recovery and a widening gap between the real economy and capital markets. Instead of more stimulus, Beijing will want to rebalance the economy and carefully unwind policy easing.

Why China is not gunning for a roaring economic recovery
Macroscope | Zero interest rates, heavy debt will be new normal in coronavirus recovery

The lessons learned from the 2008 global financial crisis suggest shutting off the liquidity tap could prove more challenging than opening it. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay, with central banks also engaging in riskier asset purchases and even negative interest rates.

16 Jul 2020 - 3:40AM

The lessons learned from the 2008 global financial crisis suggest shutting off the liquidity tap could prove more challenging than opening it. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay, with central banks also engaging in riskier asset purchases and even negative interest rates.

Zero interest rates, heavy debt will be new normal in coronavirus recovery
Macroscope | As the coronavirus crisis speeds up economic, political and social decoupling, here’s what central banks should ponder

The pandemic will contribute to growing income inequality, US-China tension and the gap between Wall Street and ‘Main Street’. Central banks must consider the limits of quantitative easing and their exit strategy.

2 Jul 2020 - 10:38AM

The pandemic will contribute to growing income inequality, US-China tension and the gap between Wall Street and ‘Main Street’. Central banks must consider the limits of quantitative easing and their exit strategy.

As the coronavirus crisis speeds up economic, political and social decoupling, here’s what central banks should ponder
Macroscope | Why the coronavirus may not make a big dent in supply chains in China

Even if a supply chain reshuffle now looks inevitable, it might not come about as soon as some expect. As lockdowns spread across the world, it doesn’t make sense to move production out of a country starting to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

17 Jun 2020 - 10:15PM

Even if a supply chain reshuffle now looks inevitable, it might not come about as soon as some expect. As lockdowns spread across the world, it doesn’t make sense to move production out of a country starting to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

Why the coronavirus may not make a big dent in supply chains in China
Macroscope | China’s clear message: jobs and stability now take the lead in economic growth

Growth now a consequence of economic and social stability rather than other way around. Still, given proposed budget deficit and stated aims to create and preserve jobs, China’s economy needs to grow at least 2 per cent.

3 Jun 2020 - 10:28PM

Growth now a consequence of economic and social stability rather than other way around. Still, given proposed budget deficit and stated aims to create and preserve jobs, China’s economy needs to grow at least 2 per cent.

China’s clear message: jobs and stability now take the lead in economic growth
Macroscope | Weak demand now stands in the way of China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis

With supply disruptions stabilising after the initial plunge in economic activity, China has entered the third phase of its battle to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

21 May 2020 - 5:56AM

With supply disruptions stabilising after the initial plunge in economic activity, China has entered the third phase of its battle to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

Weak demand now stands in the way of China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis
Macroscope | China must act fast to avert the disaster of mass unemployment amid the coronavirus onslaught

Anecdotal evidence suggests more jobs are being lost than is being captured in official data. Without forceful, timely policy support to protect the livelihood of its teeming workers, China’s fragile economic recovery won’t go far.

6 May 2020 - 10:26PM

Anecdotal evidence suggests more jobs are being lost than is being captured in official data. Without forceful, timely policy support to protect the livelihood of its teeming workers, China’s fragile economic recovery won’t go far.

China must act fast to avert the disaster of mass unemployment amid the coronavirus onslaught
Macroscope | China may be heading for a real recession unless it comes up with a forceful policy response

China’s industrial activity is recovering from the Covid-19 shutdown, but consumer spending is not. If a lack of demand is indeed slowing China’s economic recovery, Beijing must act fast to avoid a technical recession.

22 Apr 2020 - 10:48PM

China’s industrial activity is recovering from the Covid-19 shutdown, but consumer spending is not. If a lack of demand is indeed slowing China’s economic recovery, Beijing must act fast to avoid a technical recession.

China may be heading for a real recession unless it comes up with a forceful policy response
Macroscope | As other economies panic over Covid-19, China can bide its time and stimulate its way to the future

Other economies brought out the big guns last month, but not China. It is cautious about an all-out stimulus package, after experiencing side effects of the previous round. Instead, Beijing should formulate a forward-looking stimulus programme.

8 Apr 2020 - 10:47PM

Other economies brought out the big guns last month, but not China. It is cautious about an all-out stimulus package, after experiencing side effects of the previous round. Instead, Beijing should formulate a forward-looking stimulus programme.

As other economies panic over Covid-19, China can bide its time and stimulate its way to the future
Macroscope | China is winning the coronavirus battle but losing the economic war

The battering the economy took in January and February is only now becoming clear. Worse, with the rest of the world now falling under the pandemic’s shadow, Beijing should expect more economic convulsions

25 Mar 2020 - 10:18PM

The battering the economy took in January and February is only now becoming clear. Worse, with the rest of the world now falling under the pandemic’s shadow, Beijing should expect more economic convulsions

China is winning the coronavirus battle but losing the economic war
Macroscope | As the coronavirus outbreak advances, expect more rate cuts and more economic turbulence

Fears about the global economic outlook are intensifying, with the release of a set of weak Chinese data. These numbers could be a harbinger of more pain to come for other economies, if the spread of the virus is not contained quickly.

12 Mar 2020 - 7:07AM

Fears about the global economic outlook are intensifying, with the release of a set of weak Chinese data. These numbers could be a harbinger of more pain to come for other economies, if the spread of the virus is not contained quickly.

As the coronavirus outbreak advances, expect more rate cuts and more economic turbulence
Macroscope | Coronavirus crisis: at this rate, how is China’s economy going to recover lost ground?

The latest consensus forecast for the Chinese economy is rather upbeat, and must reflect expectations of further stimulus measures. However, the government’s virus containment efforts continue to hamper the resumption of economic activity.

27 Feb 2020 - 9:28AM

The latest consensus forecast for the Chinese economy is rather upbeat, and must reflect expectations of further stimulus measures. However, the government’s virus containment efforts continue to hamper the resumption of economic activity.

Coronavirus crisis: at this rate, how is China’s economy going to recover lost ground?
Macroscope | Three ways the coronavirus crisis could play out for China’s economy in 2020

In the best-case scenario, the crisis may blow over by the end of the first quarter, and do minimal damage to the economy. In the worst case, if China fails to contain the virus’ spread, it could expect painful adjustments and possibly structural damage to its economy, with spillover impact on other economies.

12 Feb 2020 - 10:32PM

In the best-case scenario, the crisis may blow over by the end of the first quarter, and do minimal damage to the economy. In the worst case, if China fails to contain the virus’ spread, it could expect painful adjustments and possibly structural damage to its economy, with spillover impact on other economies.

Three ways the coronavirus crisis could play out for China’s economy in 2020
Macroscope | What to expect from China’s economy in 2020: a solid first half followed by a loss of steam

Better GDP data in the second half of 2019 and the ‘phase one’ trade deal bode well for China’s economic prospects in 2020. However, tight financial conditions and the import commitments under the trade deal will weaken growth in the second half of the year.

30 Jan 2020 - 6:25AM

Better GDP data in the second half of 2019 and the ‘phase one’ trade deal bode well for China’s economic prospects in 2020. However, tight financial conditions and the import commitments under the trade deal will weaken growth in the second half of the year.

What to expect from China’s economy in 2020: a solid first half followed by a loss of steam
Macroscope | The trade war has pushed China towards further globalisation, domestic technology development and policy reforms

The Sino-US trade war could hold back technological development and sow distrust between the world’s two biggest economies. But Beijing has used the rivalry as an opportunity to open up to other countries and stimulate domestic innovation.

18 Dec 2019 - 10:30PM

The Sino-US trade war could hold back technological development and sow distrust between the world’s two biggest economies. But Beijing has used the rivalry as an opportunity to open up to other countries and stimulate domestic innovation.

The trade war has pushed China towards further globalisation, domestic technology development and policy reforms
Macroscope | The 2020 outlook for China’s economy remains gloomy, but there is one bright spot

The Chinese economy faces a tough road ahead, since breakthroughs in trade talks are unlikely in a US election year. A silver lining is that the rebalancing of the economy towards consumption has helped to support the labour market.

5 Dec 2019 - 5:12AM

The Chinese economy faces a tough road ahead, since breakthroughs in trade talks are unlikely in a US election year. A silver lining is that the rebalancing of the economy towards consumption has helped to support the labour market.

The 2020 outlook for China’s economy remains gloomy, but there is one bright spot
Macroscope | However the trade war goes, China’s mixed growth numbers suggest authorities will continue intervening in its economy

Industrial production and infrastructure investment slipped, the trade war outlook is murky and consumer spending mixed. Therefore, look for Beijing to continue policy easing and to boost bonds for infrastructure spending early in 2020.

21 Nov 2019 - 5:01AM

Industrial production and infrastructure investment slipped, the trade war outlook is murky and consumer spending mixed. Therefore, look for Beijing to continue policy easing and to boost bonds for infrastructure spending early in 2020.

However the trade war goes, China’s mixed growth numbers suggest authorities will continue intervening in its economy
Macroscope | China has a steady hand on its slowing economy, but can it prevent a crash landing?

Policymakers have little room to manoeuvre even if the domestic economy is holding up. With the trade numbers hit hard by US tariffs, their prudent policies won’t go far enough to ease the pain if the external environment does not improve.

7 Nov 2019 - 3:55AM

Policymakers have little room to manoeuvre even if the domestic economy is holding up. With the trade numbers hit hard by US tariffs, their prudent policies won’t go far enough to ease the pain if the external environment does not improve.

China has a steady hand on its slowing economy, but can it prevent a crash landing?
Macroscope | Interim US-China trade deal offers some relief – and a false sense of security. Investors should not be lulled

The two sides have agreed to pick the low-hanging fruit to try and head off a slowdown in their own economies, but expect subsequent discussions on thornier issues, such as technology transfer and IP protection, to be far less smooth.

24 Oct 2019 - 5:20AM

The two sides have agreed to pick the low-hanging fruit to try and head off a slowdown in their own economies, but expect subsequent discussions on thornier issues, such as technology transfer and IP protection, to be far less smooth.

Interim US-China trade deal offers some relief – and a false sense of security. Investors should not be lulled