Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers. Prior to joining AXA IM, he was a senior financial market analyst at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for two years. He started his career at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 2007, serving as an economist and later senior financial market analyst until late 2011. He holds a master degree in finance (2006) and a bachelor degree in economics and finance (2005) from the University of Otago (NZ). He is also a chartered financial analyst.

Latest from Aidan Yao

Macroscope | Why China is not gunning for a roaring economic recovery

China’s GDP rebound belies an uneven recovery and a widening gap between the real economy and capital markets. Instead of more stimulus, Beijing will want to rebalance the economy and carefully unwind policy easing.

29 Jul 2020 - 10:22PM

China’s GDP rebound belies an uneven recovery and a widening gap between the real economy and capital markets. Instead of more stimulus, Beijing will want to rebalance the economy and carefully unwind policy easing.

Why China is not gunning for a roaring economic recovery
Macroscope | Zero interest rates, heavy debt will be new normal in coronavirus recovery

The lessons learned from the 2008 global financial crisis suggest shutting off the liquidity tap could prove more challenging than opening it. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay, with central banks also engaging in riskier asset purchases and even negative interest rates.

16 Jul 2020 - 3:40AM

The lessons learned from the 2008 global financial crisis suggest shutting off the liquidity tap could prove more challenging than opening it. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay, with central banks also engaging in riskier asset purchases and even negative interest rates.

Zero interest rates, heavy debt will be new normal in coronavirus recovery
Macroscope | As the coronavirus crisis speeds up economic, political and social decoupling, here’s what central banks should ponder

The pandemic will contribute to growing income inequality, US-China tension and the gap between Wall Street and ‘Main Street’. Central banks must consider the limits of quantitative easing and their exit strategy.

2 Jul 2020 - 10:38AM

The pandemic will contribute to growing income inequality, US-China tension and the gap between Wall Street and ‘Main Street’. Central banks must consider the limits of quantitative easing and their exit strategy.

As the coronavirus crisis speeds up economic, political and social decoupling, here’s what central banks should ponder
Macroscope | Why the coronavirus may not make a big dent in supply chains in China

Even if a supply chain reshuffle now looks inevitable, it might not come about as soon as some expect. As lockdowns spread across the world, it doesn’t make sense to move production out of a country starting to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

17 Jun 2020 - 10:15PM

Even if a supply chain reshuffle now looks inevitable, it might not come about as soon as some expect. As lockdowns spread across the world, it doesn’t make sense to move production out of a country starting to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

Why the coronavirus may not make a big dent in supply chains in China
Macroscope | China’s clear message: jobs and stability now take the lead in economic growth

Growth now a consequence of economic and social stability rather than other way around. Still, given proposed budget deficit and stated aims to create and preserve jobs, China’s economy needs to grow at least 2 per cent.

3 Jun 2020 - 10:28PM

Growth now a consequence of economic and social stability rather than other way around. Still, given proposed budget deficit and stated aims to create and preserve jobs, China’s economy needs to grow at least 2 per cent.

China’s clear message: jobs and stability now take the lead in economic growth
Macroscope | Weak demand now stands in the way of China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis

With supply disruptions stabilising after the initial plunge in economic activity, China has entered the third phase of its battle to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

21 May 2020 - 5:56AM

With supply disruptions stabilising after the initial plunge in economic activity, China has entered the third phase of its battle to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

Weak demand now stands in the way of China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis
Macroscope | China must act fast to avert the disaster of mass unemployment amid the coronavirus onslaught

Anecdotal evidence suggests more jobs are being lost than is being captured in official data. Without forceful, timely policy support to protect the livelihood of its teeming workers, China’s fragile economic recovery won’t go far.

6 May 2020 - 10:26PM

Anecdotal evidence suggests more jobs are being lost than is being captured in official data. Without forceful, timely policy support to protect the livelihood of its teeming workers, China’s fragile economic recovery won’t go far.

China must act fast to avert the disaster of mass unemployment amid the coronavirus onslaught
Macroscope | China may be heading for a real recession unless it comes up with a forceful policy response

China’s industrial activity is recovering from the Covid-19 shutdown, but consumer spending is not. If a lack of demand is indeed slowing China’s economic recovery, Beijing must act fast to avoid a technical recession.

22 Apr 2020 - 10:48PM

China’s industrial activity is recovering from the Covid-19 shutdown, but consumer spending is not. If a lack of demand is indeed slowing China’s economic recovery, Beijing must act fast to avoid a technical recession.

China may be heading for a real recession unless it comes up with a forceful policy response
Macroscope | As other economies panic over Covid-19, China can bide its time and stimulate its way to the future

Other economies brought out the big guns last month, but not China. It is cautious about an all-out stimulus package, after experiencing side effects of the previous round. Instead, Beijing should formulate a forward-looking stimulus programme.

8 Apr 2020 - 10:47PM

Other economies brought out the big guns last month, but not China. It is cautious about an all-out stimulus package, after experiencing side effects of the previous round. Instead, Beijing should formulate a forward-looking stimulus programme.

As other economies panic over Covid-19, China can bide its time and stimulate its way to the future
Macroscope | China is winning the coronavirus battle but losing the economic war

The battering the economy took in January and February is only now becoming clear. Worse, with the rest of the world now falling under the pandemic’s shadow, Beijing should expect more economic convulsions

25 Mar 2020 - 10:18PM

The battering the economy took in January and February is only now becoming clear. Worse, with the rest of the world now falling under the pandemic’s shadow, Beijing should expect more economic convulsions

China is winning the coronavirus battle but losing the economic war
Macroscope | As the coronavirus outbreak advances, expect more rate cuts and more economic turbulence

Fears about the global economic outlook are intensifying, with the release of a set of weak Chinese data. These numbers could be a harbinger of more pain to come for other economies, if the spread of the virus is not contained quickly.

12 Mar 2020 - 7:07AM

Fears about the global economic outlook are intensifying, with the release of a set of weak Chinese data. These numbers could be a harbinger of more pain to come for other economies, if the spread of the virus is not contained quickly.

As the coronavirus outbreak advances, expect more rate cuts and more economic turbulence
Macroscope | Coronavirus crisis: at this rate, how is China’s economy going to recover lost ground?

The latest consensus forecast for the Chinese economy is rather upbeat, and must reflect expectations of further stimulus measures. However, the government’s virus containment efforts continue to hamper the resumption of economic activity.

27 Feb 2020 - 9:28AM

The latest consensus forecast for the Chinese economy is rather upbeat, and must reflect expectations of further stimulus measures. However, the government’s virus containment efforts continue to hamper the resumption of economic activity.

Coronavirus crisis: at this rate, how is China’s economy going to recover lost ground?
Macroscope | Three ways the coronavirus crisis could play out for China’s economy in 2020

In the best-case scenario, the crisis may blow over by the end of the first quarter, and do minimal damage to the economy. In the worst case, if China fails to contain the virus’ spread, it could expect painful adjustments and possibly structural damage to its economy, with spillover impact on other economies.

12 Feb 2020 - 10:32PM

In the best-case scenario, the crisis may blow over by the end of the first quarter, and do minimal damage to the economy. In the worst case, if China fails to contain the virus’ spread, it could expect painful adjustments and possibly structural damage to its economy, with spillover impact on other economies.

Three ways the coronavirus crisis could play out for China’s economy in 2020
Macroscope | What to expect from China’s economy in 2020: a solid first half followed by a loss of steam

Better GDP data in the second half of 2019 and the ‘phase one’ trade deal bode well for China’s economic prospects in 2020. However, tight financial conditions and the import commitments under the trade deal will weaken growth in the second half of the year.

30 Jan 2020 - 6:25AM

Better GDP data in the second half of 2019 and the ‘phase one’ trade deal bode well for China’s economic prospects in 2020. However, tight financial conditions and the import commitments under the trade deal will weaken growth in the second half of the year.

What to expect from China’s economy in 2020: a solid first half followed by a loss of steam
Macroscope | The trade war has pushed China towards further globalisation, domestic technology development and policy reforms

The Sino-US trade war could hold back technological development and sow distrust between the world’s two biggest economies. But Beijing has used the rivalry as an opportunity to open up to other countries and stimulate domestic innovation.

18 Dec 2019 - 10:30PM

The Sino-US trade war could hold back technological development and sow distrust between the world’s two biggest economies. But Beijing has used the rivalry as an opportunity to open up to other countries and stimulate domestic innovation.

The trade war has pushed China towards further globalisation, domestic technology development and policy reforms
Macroscope | The 2020 outlook for China’s economy remains gloomy, but there is one bright spot

The Chinese economy faces a tough road ahead, since breakthroughs in trade talks are unlikely in a US election year. A silver lining is that the rebalancing of the economy towards consumption has helped to support the labour market.

5 Dec 2019 - 5:12AM

The Chinese economy faces a tough road ahead, since breakthroughs in trade talks are unlikely in a US election year. A silver lining is that the rebalancing of the economy towards consumption has helped to support the labour market.

The 2020 outlook for China’s economy remains gloomy, but there is one bright spot
Macroscope | However the trade war goes, China’s mixed growth numbers suggest authorities will continue intervening in its economy

Industrial production and infrastructure investment slipped, the trade war outlook is murky and consumer spending mixed. Therefore, look for Beijing to continue policy easing and to boost bonds for infrastructure spending early in 2020.

21 Nov 2019 - 5:01AM

Industrial production and infrastructure investment slipped, the trade war outlook is murky and consumer spending mixed. Therefore, look for Beijing to continue policy easing and to boost bonds for infrastructure spending early in 2020.

However the trade war goes, China’s mixed growth numbers suggest authorities will continue intervening in its economy
Macroscope | China has a steady hand on its slowing economy, but can it prevent a crash landing?

Policymakers have little room to manoeuvre even if the domestic economy is holding up. With the trade numbers hit hard by US tariffs, their prudent policies won’t go far enough to ease the pain if the external environment does not improve.

7 Nov 2019 - 3:55AM

Policymakers have little room to manoeuvre even if the domestic economy is holding up. With the trade numbers hit hard by US tariffs, their prudent policies won’t go far enough to ease the pain if the external environment does not improve.

China has a steady hand on its slowing economy, but can it prevent a crash landing?
Macroscope | Interim US-China trade deal offers some relief – and a false sense of security. Investors should not be lulled

The two sides have agreed to pick the low-hanging fruit to try and head off a slowdown in their own economies, but expect subsequent discussions on thornier issues, such as technology transfer and IP protection, to be far less smooth.

24 Oct 2019 - 5:20AM

The two sides have agreed to pick the low-hanging fruit to try and head off a slowdown in their own economies, but expect subsequent discussions on thornier issues, such as technology transfer and IP protection, to be far less smooth.

Interim US-China trade deal offers some relief – and a false sense of security. Investors should not be lulled
Macroscope | The US is whispering about financial war against China. Investors must brace themselves

The possibility of Washington restricting US investment in China shouldn’t be taken lightly. US-China financial interconnections have increased in the past decade, and a financial decoupling would be even more damaging than the trade war.

10 Oct 2019 - 2:45AM

The possibility of Washington restricting US investment in China shouldn’t be taken lightly. US-China financial interconnections have increased in the past decade, and a financial decoupling would be even more damaging than the trade war.

The US is whispering about financial war against China. Investors must brace themselves
Macroscope | Beijing should not take any chances with the slowing economy

The recent boost to monetary and fiscal easing is a step in the right direction, but more action is needed, given the mounting risks. With bold easing measures from the US and Europe, expectations are growing for taxes and interest rate cuts, and support for infrastructure investments and consumption subsidies.

25 Sep 2019 - 10:54PM

The recent boost to monetary and fiscal easing is a step in the right direction, but more action is needed, given the mounting risks. With bold easing measures from the US and Europe, expectations are growing for taxes and interest rate cuts, and support for infrastructure investments and consumption subsidies.

Beijing should not take any chances with the slowing economy
Macroscope | Behind the headlines, China’s large current account surpluses are becoming a thing of the past

It’s necessary to understand how China’s large surpluses came to be, and how, as Beijing seeks to rely less on investment and more on consumption for growth, much smaller surpluses – or even a persistent deficit – may become the norm.

11 Sep 2019 - 10:42PM

It’s necessary to understand how China’s large surpluses came to be, and how, as Beijing seeks to rely less on investment and more on consumption for growth, much smaller surpluses – or even a persistent deficit – may become the norm.

Behind the headlines, China’s large current account surpluses are becoming a thing of the past
Macroscope | China has taken a key step towards interest rate and monetary system reform, but caution will rule

The new lending reference rate sis an important piece of reform for Chinese banking, as Beijing tries to lower funding costs and help the economy. But it will be keen to avoid the mistakes of other nations on liberalising deposit rates.

28 Aug 2019 - 10:27PM

The new lending reference rate sis an important piece of reform for Chinese banking, as Beijing tries to lower funding costs and help the economy. But it will be keen to avoid the mistakes of other nations on liberalising deposit rates.

China has taken a key step towards interest rate and monetary system reform, but caution will rule
Macroscope | Is Trump escalating the US-China trade war with shock tariffs or is he simply posturing?

If Trump means to push the US-China trade war to new heights, then the global economy could be in for a catastrophic shock. So let us hope that the US president is merely bluffing.

15 Aug 2019 - 5:21AM

If Trump means to push the US-China trade war to new heights, then the global economy could be in for a catastrophic shock. So let us hope that the US president is merely bluffing.

Is Trump escalating the US-China trade war with shock tariffs or is he simply posturing?
Macroscope | Do China’s rising retail sales point to an economic upturn in the second half of 2019? Not so fast

There have been some ‘green shoots’, but Beijing remains hesitant to amp up stimulus while deleveraging continues. That leaves it to domestic demand, which has yet to show signs of being strong enough to spur recovery.

31 Jul 2019 - 10:35PM

There have been some ‘green shoots’, but Beijing remains hesitant to amp up stimulus while deleveraging continues. That leaves it to domestic demand, which has yet to show signs of being strong enough to spur recovery.

Do China’s rising retail sales point to an economic upturn in the second half of 2019? Not so fast
Macroscope | The US-China trade war has produced more losers than winners

Vietnam is the stand-out winner, but even it has been hit by US tariffs for its large trade surplus. The rebalancing of trade and production means South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are seeing bigger demand from US – but an ever bigger drop from China

18 Jul 2019 - 5:22AM

Vietnam is the stand-out winner, but even it has been hit by US tariffs for its large trade surplus. The rebalancing of trade and production means South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are seeing bigger demand from US – but an ever bigger drop from China

The US-China trade war has produced more losers than winners
Macroscope | Three key issues to look out for as the US and China fumble towards a trade deal

Investors worried about economic uncertainty should consider that if the talks can separate out contentious issues like technology, the chances of a deal will be higher. However, the US presidential election may encourage a harder stance on China, while a sharp rebound in markets may remove the urgency for a quick agreement.

4 Jul 2019 - 11:09AM

Investors worried about economic uncertainty should consider that if the talks can separate out contentious issues like technology, the chances of a deal will be higher. However, the US presidential election may encourage a harder stance on China, while a sharp rebound in markets may remove the urgency for a quick agreement.

Three key issues to look out for as the US and China fumble towards a trade deal
Macroscope | What hope of a G20 Xi-Trump trade war breakthrough? Don’t hold your breath

Even with Xi and Trump now expected to meet at the G20, increased tension and rhetoric mean both sides appear braced for the worst. Tariffs are likely to remain in force, both US and China are likely to keep rates low and the yuan may slide further.

19 Jun 2019 - 10:45PM

Even with Xi and Trump now expected to meet at the G20, increased tension and rhetoric mean both sides appear braced for the worst. Tariffs are likely to remain in force, both US and China are likely to keep rates low and the yuan may slide further.

What hope of a G20 Xi-Trump trade war breakthrough? Don’t hold your breath
Macroscope | Trade war? No, the US and China are vying for technological supremacy, and the markets are catching on

The US implemented tariffs because it sees China as its long-term rival for technological supremacy. This not only means ongoing restrictions on companies like Huawei, but a stark global realignment.

6 Jun 2019 - 3:50AM

The US implemented tariffs because it sees China as its long-term rival for technological supremacy. This not only means ongoing restrictions on companies like Huawei, but a stark global realignment.

Trade war? No, the US and China are vying for technological supremacy, and the markets are catching on
Macroscope | No US-China trade deal any time soon unless two key obstacles are overcome

The disconnect between Trump and Xi and their negotiators means the groundwork laid in the trade talks may be negated when the leaders weigh in. Hardening political stances in the US and China also provide impetus for a continuing stalemate.

23 May 2019 - 3:24AM

The disconnect between Trump and Xi and their negotiators means the groundwork laid in the trade talks may be negated when the leaders weigh in. Hardening political stances in the US and China also provide impetus for a continuing stalemate.

No US-China trade deal any time soon unless two key obstacles are overcome