Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers
Aidan Yao
Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers

Latest from Aidan Yao

Macroscope | Behind the headlines, China’s large current account surpluses are becoming a thing of the past

It’s necessary to understand how China’s large surpluses came to be, and how, as Beijing seeks to rely less on investment and more on consumption for growth, much smaller surpluses – or even a persistent deficit – may become the norm.

11 Sep 2019 - 10:42PM

It’s necessary to understand how China’s large surpluses came to be, and how, as Beijing seeks to rely less on investment and more on consumption for growth, much smaller surpluses – or even a persistent deficit – may become the norm.

Behind the headlines, China’s large current account surpluses are becoming a thing of the past
Macroscope | China has taken a key step towards interest rate and monetary system reform, but caution will rule

The new lending reference rate sis an important piece of reform for Chinese banking, as Beijing tries to lower funding costs and help the economy. But it will be keen to avoid the mistakes of other nations on liberalising deposit rates.

28 Aug 2019 - 10:27PM

The new lending reference rate sis an important piece of reform for Chinese banking, as Beijing tries to lower funding costs and help the economy. But it will be keen to avoid the mistakes of other nations on liberalising deposit rates.

China has taken a key step towards interest rate and monetary system reform, but caution will rule
Macroscope | Is Trump escalating the US-China trade war with shock tariffs or is he simply posturing?

If Trump means to push the US-China trade war to new heights, then the global economy could be in for a catastrophic shock. So let us hope that the US president is merely bluffing.

15 Aug 2019 - 5:21AM

If Trump means to push the US-China trade war to new heights, then the global economy could be in for a catastrophic shock. So let us hope that the US president is merely bluffing.

Is Trump escalating the US-China trade war with shock tariffs or is he simply posturing?
Macroscope | Do China’s rising retail sales point to an economic upturn in the second half of 2019? Not so fast

There have been some ‘green shoots’, but Beijing remains hesitant to amp up stimulus while deleveraging continues. That leaves it to domestic demand, which has yet to show signs of being strong enough to spur recovery.

31 Jul 2019 - 10:35PM

There have been some ‘green shoots’, but Beijing remains hesitant to amp up stimulus while deleveraging continues. That leaves it to domestic demand, which has yet to show signs of being strong enough to spur recovery.

Do China’s rising retail sales point to an economic upturn in the second half of 2019? Not so fast
Macroscope | The US-China trade war has produced more losers than winners

Vietnam is the stand-out winner, but even it has been hit by US tariffs for its large trade surplus. The rebalancing of trade and production means South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are seeing bigger demand from US – but an ever bigger drop from China

18 Jul 2019 - 5:22AM

Vietnam is the stand-out winner, but even it has been hit by US tariffs for its large trade surplus. The rebalancing of trade and production means South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are seeing bigger demand from US – but an ever bigger drop from China

The US-China trade war has produced more losers than winners
Macroscope | Three key issues to look out for as the US and China fumble towards a trade deal

Investors worried about economic uncertainty should consider that if the talks can separate out contentious issues like technology, the chances of a deal will be higher. However, the US presidential election may encourage a harder stance on China, while a sharp rebound in markets may remove the urgency for a quick agreement.

4 Jul 2019 - 11:09AM

Investors worried about economic uncertainty should consider that if the talks can separate out contentious issues like technology, the chances of a deal will be higher. However, the US presidential election may encourage a harder stance on China, while a sharp rebound in markets may remove the urgency for a quick agreement.

Three key issues to look out for as the US and China fumble towards a trade deal
Macroscope | What hope of a G20 Xi-Trump trade war breakthrough? Don’t hold your breath

Even with Xi and Trump now expected to meet at the G20, increased tension and rhetoric mean both sides appear braced for the worst. Tariffs are likely to remain in force, both US and China are likely to keep rates low and the yuan may slide further.

19 Jun 2019 - 10:45PM

Even with Xi and Trump now expected to meet at the G20, increased tension and rhetoric mean both sides appear braced for the worst. Tariffs are likely to remain in force, both US and China are likely to keep rates low and the yuan may slide further.

What hope of a G20 Xi-Trump trade war breakthrough? Don’t hold your breath
Macroscope | Trade war? No, the US and China are vying for technological supremacy, and the markets are catching on

The US implemented tariffs because it sees China as its long-term rival for technological supremacy. This not only means ongoing restrictions on companies like Huawei, but a stark global realignment.

6 Jun 2019 - 3:50AM

The US implemented tariffs because it sees China as its long-term rival for technological supremacy. This not only means ongoing restrictions on companies like Huawei, but a stark global realignment.

Trade war? No, the US and China are vying for technological supremacy, and the markets are catching on
Macroscope | No US-China trade deal any time soon unless two key obstacles are overcome

The disconnect between Trump and Xi and their negotiators means the groundwork laid in the trade talks may be negated when the leaders weigh in. Hardening political stances in the US and China also provide impetus for a continuing stalemate.

23 May 2019 - 3:24AM

The disconnect between Trump and Xi and their negotiators means the groundwork laid in the trade talks may be negated when the leaders weigh in. Hardening political stances in the US and China also provide impetus for a continuing stalemate.

No US-China trade deal any time soon unless two key obstacles are overcome
Macroscope | China’s economy is showing signs of recovery but it’s not out of the woods yet

Industrial production and real-estate investment have hit highs, and recovery is in sight for carmakers as the Chinese economy looks to have turned a corner.

8 May 2019 - 10:23PM

Industrial production and real-estate investment have hit highs, and recovery is in sight for carmakers as the Chinese economy looks to have turned a corner.

China’s economy is showing signs of recovery but it’s not out of the woods yet
Macroscope | China’s weak economic data is likely to prompt more stimulus measures and a softer tone towards the US

The data from January and February will motivate the government to announce greater stimulus measures and take a more conciliatory stance in the ongoing trade negotiations with the US. The result is likely to be only a mild recovery in the second half of the year.

27 Mar 2019 - 10:38PM

The data from January and February will motivate the government to announce greater stimulus measures and take a more conciliatory stance in the ongoing trade negotiations with the US. The result is likely to be only a mild recovery in the second half of the year.

China’s weak economic data is likely to prompt more stimulus measures and a softer tone towards the US
Opinion | Can China boost short-term growth while maintaining long-term prospects? Li Keqiang may have the blueprint

By lowering expectations slightly, promising enough reforms to satisfy the US and enough stimulus to stave off a major slowdown, China’s 2019 plans walk a thin – but important– line.

13 Mar 2019 - 10:43PM

By lowering expectations slightly, promising enough reforms to satisfy the US and enough stimulus to stave off a major slowdown, China’s 2019 plans walk a thin – but important– line.

Can China boost short-term growth while maintaining long-term prospects? Li Keqiang may have the blueprint
Macroscope | China’s economy hasn’t hit bottom yet. The good news is that it will in the next quarter

Despite decent sales during the Lunar New Year, declining demand is likely to push China’s economy further down before loosening credit takes effect in the second quarter and sparks a recovery.

28 Feb 2019 - 5:30AM

Despite decent sales during the Lunar New Year, declining demand is likely to push China’s economy further down before loosening credit takes effect in the second quarter and sparks a recovery.

China’s economy hasn’t hit bottom yet. The good news is that it will in the next quarter
Macroscope | Chinese bond momentum remains strong, but don’t expect the yuan rally to last

A confluence of factors are supporting the bond market, including easing measures by the central bank and the bonds’ inclusion in the Bloomberg global index. By contrast, downside risks are likely to keep the recent yuan rally in check.

13 Feb 2019 - 10:22PM

A confluence of factors are supporting the bond market, including easing measures by the central bank and the bonds’ inclusion in the Bloomberg global index. By contrast, downside risks are likely to keep the recent yuan rally in check.

Chinese bond momentum remains strong, but don’t expect the yuan rally to last
Macroscope | China’s economic reforms are working. The bad news is the pain may get worse

Amid a growth slowdown, the strengthening service sector and household consumption are welcome news. Even so, softening global demand and challenging conditions at home will keep economic planners on their toes.

30 Jan 2019 - 10:26PM

Amid a growth slowdown, the strengthening service sector and household consumption are welcome news. Even so, softening global demand and challenging conditions at home will keep economic planners on their toes.

China’s economic reforms are working. The bad news is the pain may get worse
Macroscope | Amid China’s economic slowdown, a window of opportunity is open for investors

The Chinese economy is beset by domestic and external problems, including trade negotiations that could stumble over Beijing’s industrial policies. But since the bad news has been priced in, a market rebound is not impossible.

16 Jan 2019 - 10:56PM

The Chinese economy is beset by domestic and external problems, including trade negotiations that could stumble over Beijing’s industrial policies. But since the bad news has been priced in, a market rebound is not impossible.

Amid China’s economic slowdown, a window of opportunity is open for investors
Macroscope | Asian economies didn’t do too badly in 2018, and Asian assets may be a good bet in 2019

The fundamentals of Asian economies are more solid than the market thinks. Although Asian central banks are likely to be cautious next year, Asian assets are more attractive now than they were 12 months ago.

19 Dec 2018 - 10:18PM

The fundamentals of Asian economies are more solid than the market thinks. Although Asian central banks are likely to be cautious next year, Asian assets are more attractive now than they were 12 months ago.

Asian economies didn’t do too badly in 2018, and Asian assets may be a good bet in 2019
Macroscope | Trump and Xi made progress at the G20, but are the US and China still destined for war?

The US’ fundamental disagreements with China’s industrial policy and trade practices haven’t changed: both sides, and the world, still need to worry about the Thucydides’ Trap leading to worsening conflict.

5 Dec 2018 - 10:32PM

The US’ fundamental disagreements with China’s industrial policy and trade practices haven’t changed: both sides, and the world, still need to worry about the Thucydides’ Trap leading to worsening conflict.

Trump and Xi made progress at the G20, but are the US and China still destined for war?
Macroscope | If the US-China trade war worsens in 2019, China’s economic policymakers will have to act

Several sectors of the Chinese economy are sagging and consumer spending is expected to decline in 2019. Beijing has taken tepid measures to spur the economy, and deleveraging has prevented more decisive action so far.

21 Nov 2018 - 10:30PM

Several sectors of the Chinese economy are sagging and consumer spending is expected to decline in 2019. Beijing has taken tepid measures to spur the economy, and deleveraging has prevented more decisive action so far.

If the US-China trade war worsens in 2019, China’s economic policymakers will have to act
Macroscope | For China, the worst of the trade war is yet to come – economic growth will decelerate in 2019

It is unlikely that talks between Trump and Xi will resolve the trade war and with China’s ability to stimulate the economy hampered by the desire not to reverse reforms, investors should think twice before buying into rallies

7 Nov 2018 - 11:38PM

It is unlikely that talks between Trump and Xi will resolve the trade war and with China’s ability to stimulate the economy hampered by the desire not to reverse reforms, investors should think twice before buying into rallies

For China, the worst of the trade war is yet to come – economic growth will decelerate in 2019
Macroscope | If you think 2018 has been challenging for China’s economy, next year may be worse
  • The trade war didn’t cause China’s economic slowdown but may well worsen it if Beijing doesn’t undertake the necessary economic reforms.
24 Oct 2018 - 10:31PM
  • The trade war didn’t cause China’s economic slowdown but may well worsen it if Beijing doesn’t undertake the necessary economic reforms.
If you think 2018 has been challenging for China’s economy, next year may be worse
China is seeking a stable solution to its economic slowdown, not the quick fix of a stimulus package

Beijing won’t revisit its past policy of pumping money into the economy at the expense of long-term sustainability. This time, it is using monetary tools more carefully and also restructuring the income tax system.

10 Oct 2018 - 10:41PM

Beijing won’t revisit its past policy of pumping money into the economy at the expense of long-term sustainability. This time, it is using monetary tools more carefully and also restructuring the income tax system.

China is seeking a stable solution to its economic slowdown, not the quick fix of a stimulus package
Macroscope | The worsening US-China trade war might cost the world much more than US$430 billion of lost GDP

The US-China trade war threatens to be a drawn-out affair, pulling down the global economy. The IMF has put the cost of the conflict at 0.5 per cent of world GDP, but there might be more serious consequences ahead.

27 Sep 2018 - 4:05AM

The US-China trade war threatens to be a drawn-out affair, pulling down the global economy. The IMF has put the cost of the conflict at 0.5 per cent of world GDP, but there might be more serious consequences ahead.

The worsening US-China trade war might cost the world much more than US$430 billion of lost GDP
Why US trade war is less to blame for China’s economic slowdown than the home-grown deleveraging campaign

China has softened its aggressive campaign to tackle debt in the face of the trade war, but it will be tougher this time around to stimulate the economy while retaining the benefits of its reform measures.

12 Sep 2018 - 10:43PM

China has softened its aggressive campaign to tackle debt in the face of the trade war, but it will be tougher this time around to stimulate the economy while retaining the benefits of its reform measures.

Why US trade war is less to blame for China’s economic slowdown than the home-grown deleveraging campaign
Macroscope | Who might be hurt by fallout from the US-China trade war? Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, to name a few

A sizeable amount of Chinese exports consist of components made elsewhere, which means the trade dispute with the US will hit China’s partners in the global supply chain.

29 Aug 2018 - 10:31PM

A sizeable amount of Chinese exports consist of components made elsewhere, which means the trade dispute with the US will hit China’s partners in the global supply chain.

Who might be hurt by fallout from the US-China trade war? Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, to name a few
Macroscope | China needs to put its house in order as the trade war goes from bad to worse

The China-US trade war is likely to continue, if not worsen, since it is rooted in a competition much deeper than trade imbalances, and therefore the Chinese side needs to prepare for the worst.

16 Aug 2018 - 11:50AM

The China-US trade war is likely to continue, if not worsen, since it is rooted in a competition much deeper than trade imbalances, and therefore the Chinese side needs to prepare for the worst.

China needs to put its house in order as the trade war goes from bad to worse
Macroscope | The real reasons the yuan fell had little to do with Chinese manipulation

The recent sharp fall in the value of China’s currency has been driven by several factors, including the trade tensions with the US. Beijing’s focus from here on will likely be on fiscal stimulus, rather than run the risks that a major devaluation would hold.

1 Aug 2018 - 10:34PM

The recent sharp fall in the value of China’s currency has been driven by several factors, including the trade tensions with the US. Beijing’s focus from here on will likely be on fiscal stimulus, rather than run the risks that a major devaluation would hold.

The real reasons the yuan fell had little to do with Chinese manipulation
Shanghai savers sound the alarm as more P2P lenders fail to return funds
Macroscope | Retaliate, reform, liberalise: the three ways China will respond to new US tariffs

It is only natural that Beijing would strike back should Washington go ahead with the next round of tariffs, but it can also be expected to proceed with domestic reforms and further opening of its market to outside investors, which may ultimately be to its benefit.

18 Jul 2018 - 10:33PM

It is only natural that Beijing would strike back should Washington go ahead with the next round of tariffs, but it can also be expected to proceed with domestic reforms and further opening of its market to outside investors, which may ultimately be to its benefit.

Retaliate, reform, liberalise: the three ways  China will respond to new US tariffs
China’s monetary policy loosening is a sign that the central bank is gearing up for a fight