Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers
Aidan Yao
Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers

Latest from Aidan Yao

Opinion | Can China boost short-term growth while maintaining long-term prospects? Li Keqiang may have the blueprint

By lowering expectations slightly, promising enough reforms to satisfy the US and enough stimulus to stave off a major slowdown, China’s 2019 plans walk a thin – but important– line.

13 Mar 2019 - 10:43PM
Can China boost short-term growth while maintaining long-term prospects? Li Keqiang may have the blueprint

By lowering expectations slightly, promising enough reforms to satisfy the US and enough stimulus to stave off a major slowdown, China’s 2019 plans walk a thin – but important– line.

Macroscope | China’s economy hasn’t hit bottom yet. The good news is that it will in the next quarter

Despite decent sales during the Lunar New Year, declining demand is likely to push China’s economy further down before loosening credit takes effect in the second quarter and sparks a recovery.

28 Feb 2019 - 5:30AM
China’s economy hasn’t hit bottom yet. The good news is that it will in the next quarter

Despite decent sales during the Lunar New Year, declining demand is likely to push China’s economy further down before loosening credit takes effect in the second quarter and sparks a recovery.

Macroscope | Chinese bond momentum remains strong, but don’t expect the yuan rally to last

A confluence of factors are supporting the bond market, including easing measures by the central bank and the bonds’ inclusion in the Bloomberg global index. By contrast, downside risks are likely to keep the recent yuan rally in check.

13 Feb 2019 - 10:22PM
Chinese bond momentum remains strong, but don’t expect the yuan rally to last

A confluence of factors are supporting the bond market, including easing measures by the central bank and the bonds’ inclusion in the Bloomberg global index. By contrast, downside risks are likely to keep the recent yuan rally in check.

Macroscope | China’s economic reforms are working. The bad news is the pain may get worse

Amid a growth slowdown, the strengthening service sector and household consumption are welcome news. Even so, softening global demand and challenging conditions at home will keep economic planners on their toes.

30 Jan 2019 - 10:26PM
China’s economic reforms are working. The bad news is the pain may get worse

Amid a growth slowdown, the strengthening service sector and household consumption are welcome news. Even so, softening global demand and challenging conditions at home will keep economic planners on their toes.

Macroscope | Amid China’s economic slowdown, a window of opportunity is open for investors

The Chinese economy is beset by domestic and external problems, including trade negotiations that could stumble over Beijing’s industrial policies. But since the bad news has been priced in, a market rebound is not impossible.

16 Jan 2019 - 10:56PM
Amid China’s economic slowdown, a window of opportunity is open for investors

The Chinese economy is beset by domestic and external problems, including trade negotiations that could stumble over Beijing’s industrial policies. But since the bad news has been priced in, a market rebound is not impossible.

Macroscope | Asian economies didn’t do too badly in 2018, and Asian assets may be a good bet in 2019

The fundamentals of Asian economies are more solid than the market thinks. Although Asian central banks are likely to be cautious next year, Asian assets are more attractive now than they were 12 months ago.

19 Dec 2018 - 10:18PM
Asian economies didn’t do too badly in 2018, and Asian assets may be a good bet in 2019

The fundamentals of Asian economies are more solid than the market thinks. Although Asian central banks are likely to be cautious next year, Asian assets are more attractive now than they were 12 months ago.

Macroscope | Trump and Xi made progress at the G20, but are the US and China still destined for war?

The US’ fundamental disagreements with China’s industrial policy and trade practices haven’t changed: both sides, and the world, still need to worry about the Thucydides’ Trap leading to worsening conflict.

5 Dec 2018 - 10:32PM
Trump and Xi made progress at the G20, but are the US and China still destined for war?

The US’ fundamental disagreements with China’s industrial policy and trade practices haven’t changed: both sides, and the world, still need to worry about the Thucydides’ Trap leading to worsening conflict.

Macroscope | If the US-China trade war worsens in 2019, China’s economic policymakers will have to act

Several sectors of the Chinese economy are sagging and consumer spending is expected to decline in 2019. Beijing has taken tepid measures to spur the economy, and deleveraging has prevented more decisive action so far.

21 Nov 2018 - 10:30PM
If the US-China trade war worsens in 2019, China’s economic policymakers will have to act

Several sectors of the Chinese economy are sagging and consumer spending is expected to decline in 2019. Beijing has taken tepid measures to spur the economy, and deleveraging has prevented more decisive action so far.

Macroscope | For China, the worst of the trade war is yet to come – economic growth will decelerate in 2019

It is unlikely that talks between Trump and Xi will resolve the trade war and with China’s ability to stimulate the economy hampered by the desire not to reverse reforms, investors should think twice before buying into rallies

7 Nov 2018 - 6:18PM
For China, the worst of the trade war is yet to come – economic growth will decelerate in 2019

It is unlikely that talks between Trump and Xi will resolve the trade war and with China’s ability to stimulate the economy hampered by the desire not to reverse reforms, investors should think twice before buying into rallies

Macroscope | If you think 2018 has been challenging for China’s economy, next year may be worse
  • The trade war didn’t cause China’s economic slowdown but may well worsen it if Beijing doesn’t undertake the necessary economic reforms.
24 Oct 2018 - 10:31PM
If you think 2018 has been challenging for China’s economy, next year may be worse
  • The trade war didn’t cause China’s economic slowdown but may well worsen it if Beijing doesn’t undertake the necessary economic reforms.
China is seeking a stable solution to its economic slowdown, not the quick fix of a stimulus package

Beijing won’t revisit its past policy of pumping money into the economy at the expense of long-term sustainability. This time, it is using monetary tools more carefully and also restructuring the income tax system.

10 Oct 2018 - 10:41PM
China is seeking a stable solution to its economic slowdown, not the quick fix of a stimulus package

Beijing won’t revisit its past policy of pumping money into the economy at the expense of long-term sustainability. This time, it is using monetary tools more carefully and also restructuring the income tax system.

Macroscope | The worsening US-China trade war might cost the world much more than US$430 billion of lost GDP

The US-China trade war threatens to be a drawn-out affair, pulling down the global economy. The IMF has put the cost of the conflict at 0.5 per cent of world GDP, but there might be more serious consequences ahead.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM
The worsening US-China trade war might cost the world much more than US$430 billion of lost GDP

The US-China trade war threatens to be a drawn-out affair, pulling down the global economy. The IMF has put the cost of the conflict at 0.5 per cent of world GDP, but there might be more serious consequences ahead.

Why US trade war is less to blame for China’s economic slowdown than the home-grown deleveraging campaign

China has softened its aggressive campaign to tackle debt in the face of the trade war, but it will be tougher this time around to stimulate the economy while retaining the benefits of its reform measures.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM
Why US trade war is less to blame for China’s economic slowdown than the home-grown deleveraging campaign

China has softened its aggressive campaign to tackle debt in the face of the trade war, but it will be tougher this time around to stimulate the economy while retaining the benefits of its reform measures.

Macroscope | Who might be hurt by fallout from the US-China trade war? Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, to name a few

A sizeable amount of Chinese exports consist of components made elsewhere, which means the trade dispute with the US will hit China’s partners in the global supply chain.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM
Who might be hurt by fallout from the US-China trade war? Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, to name a few

A sizeable amount of Chinese exports consist of components made elsewhere, which means the trade dispute with the US will hit China’s partners in the global supply chain.

Macroscope | China needs to put its house in order as the trade war goes from bad to worse

The China-US trade war is likely to continue, if not worsen, since it is rooted in a competition much deeper than trade imbalances, and therefore the Chinese side needs to prepare for the worst.

29 Sep 2018 - 2:36PM
China needs to put its house in order as the trade war goes from bad to worse

The China-US trade war is likely to continue, if not worsen, since it is rooted in a competition much deeper than trade imbalances, and therefore the Chinese side needs to prepare for the worst.

Macroscope | The real reasons the yuan fell had little to do with Chinese manipulation

The recent sharp fall in the value of China’s currency has been driven by several factors, including the trade tensions with the US. Beijing’s focus from here on will likely be on fiscal stimulus, rather than run the risks that a major devaluation would hold.

1 Aug 2018 - 10:34PM
The real reasons the yuan fell had little to do with Chinese manipulation

The recent sharp fall in the value of China’s currency has been driven by several factors, including the trade tensions with the US. Beijing’s focus from here on will likely be on fiscal stimulus, rather than run the risks that a major devaluation would hold.

Shanghai savers sound the alarm as more P2P lenders fail to return funds
Macroscope | Retaliate, reform, liberalise: the three ways China will respond to new US tariffs

It is only natural that Beijing would strike back should Washington go ahead with the next round of tariffs, but it can also be expected to proceed with domestic reforms and further opening of its market to outside investors, which may ultimately be to its benefit.

18 Jul 2018 - 10:33PM
Retaliate, reform, liberalise: the three ways  China will respond to new US tariffs

It is only natural that Beijing would strike back should Washington go ahead with the next round of tariffs, but it can also be expected to proceed with domestic reforms and further opening of its market to outside investors, which may ultimately be to its benefit.

China’s monetary policy loosening is a sign that the central bank is gearing up for a fight
Macroscope | Bond defaults in China are a necessary pain for a healthier economy

The rash of defaults in the corporate bond market, a result of Beijing’s deleveraging drive, must be tolerated for longer-term gains.

20 Jun 2018 - 10:54PM
Bond defaults in China are a necessary pain for a healthier economy

The rash of defaults in the corporate bond market, a result of Beijing’s deleveraging drive, must be tolerated for longer-term gains.

Macroscope | Asia will outlast the emerging market bears, regardless of the short-term flux

While the sell-off that has hit emerging markets as an asset class does carry the risk of contagion, Asia’s solid fundamentals will ensure it weathers the storm.

6 Jun 2018 - 10:30PM
Asia will outlast the emerging market bears, regardless of the short-term flux

While the sell-off that has hit emerging markets as an asset class does carry the risk of contagion, Asia’s solid fundamentals will ensure it weathers the storm.

Macroscope | Why MSCI’s inclusion of A shares should be a clarion call to foreign investors

Although it may take years for the inclusion of A shares in the MSCI index to generate significant foreign capital inflows, the move is still worthwhile.

23 May 2018 - 10:43PM
Why MSCI’s inclusion of A shares should be a clarion call to foreign investors

Although it may take years for the inclusion of A shares in the MSCI index to generate significant foreign capital inflows, the move is still worthwhile.

Macroscope | China’s bond market is the unlikely winner of US-China trade spat. Here's how

The US-China trade dispute may force China to open up its capital markets, making it easier for investors to access Chinese bonds.

9 May 2018 - 10:45PM
China’s bond market is the unlikely winner of US-China trade spat. Here's how

The US-China trade dispute may force China to open up its capital markets, making it easier for investors to access Chinese bonds.

Macroscope | Recent volatility aside, Hong Kong’s dollar peg is here to stay

Hong Kong has no alternative foreign exchange options that are compatible with its status as a top financial centre.

20 Jul 2018 - 8:47PM
Recent volatility aside, Hong Kong’s dollar peg is here to stay

Hong Kong has no alternative foreign exchange options that are compatible with its status as a top financial centre.

Macroscope | Trade war will probably not end in Armageddon, but investors should be wary

The consequences of a trade war between Washington and Beijing would be so severe that we can expect both countries to back down. In the meantime, however, expect disruptions

20 Jul 2018 - 8:47PM
Trade war will probably not end in Armageddon, but investors should be wary

The consequences of a trade war between Washington and Beijing would be so severe that we can expect both countries to back down. In the meantime, however, expect disruptions

Trade war is not a zero-sum game, but a lose-lose for the US and China
Trump is impetuously turning campaign rhetoric into action, and that’s cause for concern
Stable consumer-led growth a must for China’s economic transformation
Why investors must beware of  the US need to ‘do something about China’
If China can fire on all cylinders, a revival of the productivity cycle is attainable
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