Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao

Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers. Prior to joining AXA IM, he was a senior financial market analyst at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for two years. He started his career at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 2007, serving as an economist and later senior financial market analyst until late 2011. He holds a master degree in finance (2006) and a bachelor degree in economics and finance (2005) from the University of Otago (NZ). He is also a chartered financial analyst.

Latest from Aidan Yao

Macroscope | Value-seeking investors could make China source of market rally in 2022

Affordable valuations and shifting capital will make China attractive as investors seek value in places where asset prices are less expensive. People moving their money out of real estate and into financial assets could drive an equity and bond market rally this year.

Affordable valuations and shifting capital will make China attractive as investors seek value in places where asset prices are less expensive. People moving their money out of real estate and into financial assets could drive an equity and bond market rally this year.

12 Jan 2022 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | How China can get its economy back on track after the 2021 battering

As energy shortages, an overhaul of the housing sector, and uncertainty around Covid-19 threaten economic stability, a more lenient approach to policy is needed to balance short-term pains with long-term recovery.

As energy shortages, an overhaul of the housing sector, and uncertainty around Covid-19 threaten economic stability, a more lenient approach to policy is needed to balance short-term pains with long-term recovery.

1 Dec 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | China’s property market crackdown: how concerned should investors be?

While fundamental demand for homes peaked in 2018, real estate investment was buoyed by the liquidity created by the central bank. The property investment carnival encompassed the central government, local administrations, wealthy households, banks and developers, but the drive towards common prosperity may spell its end.

While fundamental demand for homes peaked in 2018, real estate investment was buoyed by the liquidity created by the central bank. The property investment carnival encompassed the central government, local administrations, wealthy households, banks and developers, but the drive towards common prosperity may spell its end.

4 Nov 2021 - 8:00AM
Macroscope | As winter comes early to China’s economy, Beijing must focus on short-term growth

Beijing shouldn’t rush to achieve long-term goals – such as reaching net zero carbon emissions and deflating the housing bubble – when the economy is in free fall. It should rethink its zero-Covid, property and coal policies before the risks worsen.

Beijing shouldn’t rush to achieve long-term goals – such as reaching net zero carbon emissions and deflating the housing bubble – when the economy is in free fall. It should rethink its zero-Covid, property and coal policies before the risks worsen.

6 Oct 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | As China moves towards ‘common prosperity’, it must not take its eye off growth

If the shift in Beijing’s long-term development strategy is to succeed, it must adjust tax policies, improve the social safety net, and ensure equal opportunities by reining in corporate excess.

If the shift in Beijing’s long-term development strategy is to succeed, it must adjust tax policies, improve the social safety net, and ensure equal opportunities by reining in corporate excess.

8 Sep 2021 - 2:53PM
Macroscope | China’s crackdown on tech and tutoring is really directed at inequality

Beijing’s regulatory moves on Big Tech, fintech and for-profit education are aligned with its long-term strategic priority, “common prosperity”. However, this is not a goal that can be achieved with a few policy tweaks, and Beijing should consider the financial market reaction to its moves.

Beijing’s regulatory moves on Big Tech, fintech and for-profit education are aligned with its long-term strategic priority, “common prosperity”. However, this is not a goal that can be achieved with a few policy tweaks, and Beijing should consider the financial market reaction to its moves.

11 Aug 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | Why China is still the world’s factory, only upgraded

Despite rising costs, a US trade war and the Covid-19 outbreak, China’s resilient supply chain has prevailed and enabled its economy to move up the value chain. China remains an export powerhouse reshaping the landscape of global trade.

Despite rising costs, a US trade war and the Covid-19 outbreak, China’s resilient supply chain has prevailed and enabled its economy to move up the value chain. China remains an export powerhouse reshaping the landscape of global trade.

14 Jul 2021 - 10:30PM
Macroscope | Four ways China’s economy can rise to the population challenge

The three-child policy is unlikely to reverse the demographic slide, but China can mitigate likely impacts on the economy. Besides raising the retirement age, it could make the most of its educated workers, adopt automation and consider outsourcing.

The three-child policy is unlikely to reverse the demographic slide, but China can mitigate likely impacts on the economy. Besides raising the retirement age, it could make the most of its educated workers, adopt automation and consider outsourcing.

16 Jun 2021 - 4:30PM
Macroscope | With Covid-19 persisting and the inflation outlook uncertain, investors should tread cautiously

Markets must adapt to the likelihood of the pandemic lasting years, and adjust growth expectations accordingly. Inflation will depend on whether disinflationary forces are stronger than the impact of unprecedented monetary stimulus.

Markets must adapt to the likelihood of the pandemic lasting years, and adjust growth expectations accordingly. Inflation will depend on whether disinflationary forces are stronger than the impact of unprecedented monetary stimulus.

19 May 2021 - 10:27PM
Macroscope | Despite the risks, China’s green bonds will prove rewarding for global investors

The green bond market, already the world’s second largest, is expected to grow further in size, depth and liquidity to meet China’s ambitious net-zero carbon target. Strengthening information disclosure and a more rigorous definition of what counts as a green bond will add to the appeal.

The green bond market, already the world’s second largest, is expected to grow further in size, depth and liquidity to meet China’s ambitious net-zero carbon target. Strengthening information disclosure and a more rigorous definition of what counts as a green bond will add to the appeal.

22 Apr 2021 - 8:45AM
Macroscope | China’s economic recovery is going strong, despite a slight hiccup

The Chinese economy was hit by renewed Covid-19 outbreaks before Lunar New Year, but the effects were uneven and rather short-lived. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about China’s economic outlook. Mobility is returning to levels seen in 2019, and China has started a vaccine drive

The Chinese economy was hit by renewed Covid-19 outbreaks before Lunar New Year, but the effects were uneven and rather short-lived. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about China’s economic outlook. Mobility is returning to levels seen in 2019, and China has started a vaccine drive

24 Mar 2021 - 2:30PM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: China still on course for monetary policy tapering despite new Covid-19 outbreaks

An uptick in Covid-19 cases in January and subsequent restrictions did not derail industrial activity or consumption over the Lunar New Year. With China’s recovery still strong, expect its central bank to proceed with normalising monetary policy.

An uptick in Covid-19 cases in January and subsequent restrictions did not derail industrial activity or consumption over the Lunar New Year. With China’s recovery still strong, expect its central bank to proceed with normalising monetary policy.

24 Feb 2021 - 3:45PM
Macroscope | Coronavirus resurgence in China will be a mere hiccup in the country’s economic recovery

Covid-19 infections and restrictions will slow recovery but consumption will bounce back as the main economic driver. And with the rising yuan doing the work of tightening, the central bank can afford to take its time to normalise policy.

Covid-19 infections and restrictions will slow recovery but consumption will bounce back as the main economic driver. And with the rising yuan doing the work of tightening, the central bank can afford to take its time to normalise policy.

27 Jan 2021 - 5:34PM
Macroscope | China-EU investment deal must fight scepticism to reach full economic potential

China’s enthusiasm for the deal and the reform opportunities it affords are not enough. The EU must overcome scepticism and come fully on board for the deal to shine.

China’s enthusiasm for the deal and the reform opportunities it affords are not enough. The EU must overcome scepticism and come fully on board for the deal to shine.

13 Jan 2021 - 4:45PM
Macroscope | How RCEP will boost Asian integration in trade, supply chains and strategic ties

RCEP represents the most significant, ambitious regional trade deal for decades, with medium and long-term benefits. Strengthened economic ties and standard alignments will help ensure China’s lost supply chain stays in Asia – to the benefit of members and the detriment of India.

RCEP represents the most significant, ambitious regional trade deal for decades, with medium and long-term benefits. Strengthened economic ties and standard alignments will help ensure China’s lost supply chain stays in Asia – to the benefit of members and the detriment of India.

16 Dec 2020 - 5:06PM
Macroscope | As China’s economy powers up, what’s the growth outlook for 2021?

China has succeeded in containing the spread of Covid-19 and is at the forefront in the race for a vaccine, which will boost its economy. However, the scrapping of some stimulus measures will add downward pressure.

China has succeeded in containing the spread of Covid-19 and is at the forefront in the race for a vaccine, which will boost its economy. However, the scrapping of some stimulus measures will add downward pressure.

2 Dec 2020 - 10:28PM
Macroscope | Joe Biden’s path on China and US economic recovery is likely to be similar to Donald Trump’s

Many of the underlying issues that plagued the Trump administration remain, including US-China competition, national security concerns and populism. Biden’s relatively narrow victory with a divided Congress could still bode well for Asia if a more modest stimulus package passes after his inauguration.

Many of the underlying issues that plagued the Trump administration remain, including US-China competition, national security concerns and populism. Biden’s relatively narrow victory with a divided Congress could still bode well for Asia if a more modest stimulus package passes after his inauguration.

19 Nov 2020 - 5:10AM
Macroscope | China’s roaring economy has sparked a yuan rally, but it may not last

Demand for the yuan has spiked on the back of a global appetite for China’s goods and renminbi bonds, thanks to its revitalised industrial sector and prudent monetary policy. But in the medium to long term, yuan strength against the dollar will also depend on US macro policies.

Demand for the yuan has spiked on the back of a global appetite for China’s goods and renminbi bonds, thanks to its revitalised industrial sector and prudent monetary policy. But in the medium to long term, yuan strength against the dollar will also depend on US macro policies.

4 Nov 2020 - 10:16PM
Macroscope | Donald Trump or Joe Biden: how different US election outcomes could play out in markets and in China

A disputed US election would be unnerving for markets. A Biden victory, coupled with a split Congress, could be troubling for the US, but it would be an opportune time for China to lure investors away.

A disputed US election would be unnerving for markets. A Biden victory, coupled with a split Congress, could be troubling for the US, but it would be an opportune time for China to lure investors away.

22 Oct 2020 - 2:45AM
Macroscope | What investors should understand about China’s ‘dual circulation’ strategy

Domestically, Beijing will focus on technological progress, boosting consumption, urbanisation and supply-chain enhancement. While China may cut belt and road projects and outbound investment, the strategy’s aim is not to close off the economy.

Domestically, Beijing will focus on technological progress, boosting consumption, urbanisation and supply-chain enhancement. While China may cut belt and road projects and outbound investment, the strategy’s aim is not to close off the economy.

8 Oct 2020 - 5:49AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: what China’s blockbuster August economic data reveals

China’s economic growth has accelerated faster than expected and the recovery has become more broad-based. This should result in the fine-tuning of monetary policy stimulus, with fiscal policy now expected to do the heavy lifting.

China’s economic growth has accelerated faster than expected and the recovery has become more broad-based. This should result in the fine-tuning of monetary policy stimulus, with fiscal policy now expected to do the heavy lifting.

24 Sep 2020 - 4:20AM
Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: Fed’s inflation shift could be good news for China

Policy changes could dictate a very different Fed reaction to an improved economy compared to under the old rules. Generous stimulus that suppresses US interest rates could create abundant capital inflows that benefit China, removing its need to create its own liquidity.

Policy changes could dictate a very different Fed reaction to an improved economy compared to under the old rules. Generous stimulus that suppresses US interest rates could create abundant capital inflows that benefit China, removing its need to create its own liquidity.

10 Sep 2020 - 6:54AM
Macroscope | US-China trade war: who is really bleeding more from Donald Trump’s tariffs?

The US president sought to bring jobs and manufacturing back home. But while China has lost market share in the US, it is to other exporters like Vietnam. Also, China appears to have figured out how to maintain supply chains in the region.

The US president sought to bring jobs and manufacturing back home. But while China has lost market share in the US, it is to other exporters like Vietnam. Also, China appears to have figured out how to maintain supply chains in the region.

27 Aug 2020 - 4:52AM
Macroscope | China’s role in global supply chains will change, but probably not overnight

China’s PPE and tech industries are likely to be hardest hit by supply chain reconfiguration, given the West’s growing wariness of security risks. But China can slow the tide of manufacturing moving out.

China’s PPE and tech industries are likely to be hardest hit by supply chain reconfiguration, given the West’s growing wariness of security risks. But China can slow the tide of manufacturing moving out.

13 Aug 2020 - 4:33AM
Macroscope | Why China is not gunning for a roaring economic recovery

China’s GDP rebound belies an uneven recovery and a widening gap between the real economy and capital markets. Instead of more stimulus, Beijing will want to rebalance the economy and carefully unwind policy easing.

China’s GDP rebound belies an uneven recovery and a widening gap between the real economy and capital markets. Instead of more stimulus, Beijing will want to rebalance the economy and carefully unwind policy easing.

29 Jul 2020 - 10:22PM
Macroscope | Zero interest rates, heavy debt will be new normal in coronavirus recovery

The lessons learned from the 2008 global financial crisis suggest shutting off the liquidity tap could prove more challenging than opening it. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay, with central banks also engaging in riskier asset purchases and even negative interest rates.

The lessons learned from the 2008 global financial crisis suggest shutting off the liquidity tap could prove more challenging than opening it. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy is here to stay, with central banks also engaging in riskier asset purchases and even negative interest rates.

16 Jul 2020 - 3:40AM
Macroscope | As the coronavirus crisis speeds up economic, political and social decoupling, here’s what central banks should ponder

The pandemic will contribute to growing income inequality, US-China tension and the gap between Wall Street and ‘Main Street’. Central banks must consider the limits of quantitative easing and their exit strategy.

The pandemic will contribute to growing income inequality, US-China tension and the gap between Wall Street and ‘Main Street’. Central banks must consider the limits of quantitative easing and their exit strategy.

2 Jul 2020 - 10:38AM
Macroscope | Why the coronavirus may not make a big dent in supply chains in China

Even if a supply chain reshuffle now looks inevitable, it might not come about as soon as some expect. As lockdowns spread across the world, it doesn’t make sense to move production out of a country starting to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

Even if a supply chain reshuffle now looks inevitable, it might not come about as soon as some expect. As lockdowns spread across the world, it doesn’t make sense to move production out of a country starting to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

17 Jun 2020 - 10:15PM
Macroscope | China’s clear message: jobs and stability now take the lead in economic growth

Growth now a consequence of economic and social stability rather than other way around. Still, given proposed budget deficit and stated aims to create and preserve jobs, China’s economy needs to grow at least 2 per cent.

Growth now a consequence of economic and social stability rather than other way around. Still, given proposed budget deficit and stated aims to create and preserve jobs, China’s economy needs to grow at least 2 per cent.

3 Jun 2020 - 10:28PM
Macroscope | Weak demand now stands in the way of China’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis

With supply disruptions stabilising after the initial plunge in economic activity, China has entered the third phase of its battle to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

With supply disruptions stabilising after the initial plunge in economic activity, China has entered the third phase of its battle to recover from the Covid-19 shock.

21 May 2020 - 5:56AM