OpinionPaul Chan’s budget should ease the pain of the coronavirus crisis in Hong Kong, but not much more

The 2020-21 budget that Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-Po is due to unveil on Wednesday will be a real test of his mettle. He will also have to be vigilant in the aftermath.

It is always a challenge for the money man to justify prudence in the management of public finances when everyone can see we have substantial fiscal reserves. This time will be particularly tough as Hong Kong is now suffering a real crisis. This is the proverbial “rainy day”, for which accumulation of the reserves over the years was justified in the first place. Chan is sure to be under pressure from all sides.

With the Legislative Council election due in September, the traditional opposition forces, fresh from their overwhelming victory in the district council elections last autumn, will have little hesitation in sucking up to the electorate by pressing for the spending taps to be turned on. However generous Chan’s initial set of proposals, it will be argued he could and should do more.

And the pro-establishment camp is unlikely to come to his rescue. Still smarting from their drubbing in November, they will remember that they stood by the government right to the end of its ill-fated attempt to overhaul the extradition legislation, only to have the rug pulled out from under them at the last minute when Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor finally dropped the bill without consulting them. If they suspect the government might be ready to give further concessions in the budget, they won’t make the same mistake again.

How about the Executive Council members? The picture here is no more encouraging. Bernard Chan and his colleagues have been almost invisible since the extradition crisis exploded. Their modesty is understandable – at least they recognise their own limitations.