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US-China trade war
Opinion
David Dodwell

Donald Trump’s embrace of India’s Narendra Modi is a picture of US double standards in its trade war with China

  • India’s protectionism and its human rights infringements attract much less open criticism from the US than China’s. Perhaps, the US’ targeting of China is more about Beijing’s success in shifting the global balance of power

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US President Donald Trump and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi hug during a press conference in New Delhi, India, on February 25. Photo: AFP

As a student of development economics at university back in the early 1970s, there were few books more provocative or indispensable than Barrington Moore’s 1966 tome, The Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy.

For me, fresh back from a year living in Pakistan, and fascinated, as the Vietnam war ground its discredited course, by the Maoist revolution in China, the Harvard professor’s book tackled a question that is still pivotal today: do impoverished developing countries need a revolution – like that in China in 1949 – to pave the way out of lives of poverty, or can a lumbering bureaucratic democracy – like that of India – provide an alternative gradualist route for the world’s impoverished millions?

Over 50 years on from Moore’s book, many would say the question has been emphatically answered. From almost identical starting points in 1950, China’s gross domestic product is now more than twice India’s. Indeed, more than 10 of China’s provinces have a larger GDP than India’s richest state, Maharashtra, and two Chinese provinces – Guangdong and Jiangsu – together have a GDP of US$2.7 trillion, equal to the whole of India.

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China today is the world’s top trading power, exporting more than eight times India’s exports, and the world’s leading manufacturer. Note that Hong Kong, exporting US$568 billion in 2018, Singapore exporting US$412 billion and Taiwan exporting $335 billion, are all bigger exporters than India.

While China has lifted an estimated 850 million out of extreme poverty, with just 3.1 per cent now living in poverty, almost 22 per cent of India’s population still lives in extreme poverty.

But as US President Donald Trump hugged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in front of 130,000 people at a stadium in Ahmedabad, in western India, last week, it was clear that some are reluctant to be convinced.
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