The data on global coronavirus-related trade and job losses is grim, but the worst is yet to come

Memories of the pain and harm done by the US-China trade war and six months of street violence across Hong Kong may not have faded, but they have, in the past three months, been overwhelmed by the coronavirus, and the unremitting angst that this invisible enemy has caused in communities worldwide.

We are only now beginning to sense the scale of the economic harm being inflicted in the fight against the spread of the virus. That is mainly because this harm is still not clearly perceptible and has yet to be fully captured by data. The disastrous domino effect of domestic lockdowns and international self-isolation is now beginning to be seen, but not yet felt.

Two important reports this week have provided us with some sketchy numbers about the future facing us. The first, from the World Trade Organisation, foresees global merchandise trade collapsing this year by between 13 and 32 per cent – in raw numbers, that means a fall of between US$2.4 trillion and US$6 trillion, from US$18.89 trillion in 2019.

Worst impacted will be North America, with exports expected to decline by 17 to 41 per cent, and imports by 14 to 34 per cent. If such forecasts are anywhere near accurate, you can see why Donald Trump is so concerned about deflecting blame ahead of the United States presidential election in November.