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Inside Out & Outside In
Opinion
David Dodwell

Outside In | With the aviation industry stalling due to the coronavirus, the global economy cannot take off too

  • As Covid-19 lockdowns can only be relaxed gradually, the economic fallout is set to be deeper than some wishful thinkers predict
  • With the beating heart of our globalised world bleeding losses, so too will the related travel, tourism, hotel and catering businesses

Reading Time:4 minutes
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Aircraft are grounded at the Hong Kong International Airport on April 12 amid the coronavirus pandemic and travel restrictions. Photo: Zuma Wire / dpa
As political leaders talk about getting through the worst of the pandemic catastrophe, and warm to the prospect of reopening the economy by early May, I hate to be the harbinger of unwelcome news. But the brutal reality is that we are still far from discovering the road back to wellness – whether in terms of lives or livelihoods.

I pray that leaders are right that we are past the peak of mortalities, and that our health care systems are going to be under less severe strain. That seems more likely to be true here in Asia than in the United States or Europe. But a lot of expert medical analysis still suggests this is more a prayer than a measurable expectation.

And as the lockdowns are likely to have to stay in place not for weeks, but for months to come, only to be relaxed one careful step at a time, the economic catastrophe is set to be deeper, and longer-lasting, than many wishful thinkers currently predict. The bankruptcies have only just begun to be reported. The job losses are set to get progressively worse in the months ahead. As spending power weakens, even healthy companies are going to hit heavy weather.
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Look only at the aviation sector, and the travel and tourism activities that are integrally linked with it, to see how deep a trough we are in, and how rough the road out. The World Travel & Tourism Council constantly reminds us that the travel sector, which also drives hotel and restaurant patronage worldwide, supports one in 10 of the world’s jobs: if aviation is in a deep trough, the rest of the world economy can’t be far behind.

In Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific has reported that so far this month it is averaging 1,000 passengers a day. On one day this week, the number dipped to just 302 passengers. From five flights a day to London’s Heathrow, it has cut back to two flights a week.
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