Less is more? How the office property sector must adapt to work habits changed by the coronavirus
- While predictions that the office is on its way out are wide of the mark, the sector must reinvent itself for the post-pandemic world
- A reduction in demand for office space and a preference for low-density buildings and office layout may be trends that will outlast this outbreak
Almost overnight, the coronavirus altered the way people live, work and play. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have upended many industries, accelerating trends that were disruptive before the virus struck and presaging far-reaching changes in behaviour.
Equity investors have penalised retail and hotel and resort-focused real estate investment trusts, or Reits, listed on the benchmark S&P 500 index, with their share prices plunging 48 per cent and 50 per cent respectively since February 21. Reits specialising in logistics properties, on the other hand, which have benefited from the virus-induced surge in online shopping, have fared significantly better, falling only 13 per cent.
However, the verdict of investors has been less clear when it comes to the office sector. Reits focused on offices have lost 36 per cent. This is mainly because there is less consensus on the future of office working in a post-Covid-19 world.
The uncertain outlook for offices is partly a reflection of a dispute between those who believe the apparent success of home working during lockdowns (and the lingering fear of the virus in the absence of a vaccine) will force occupiers to cut back on real estate, and those who claim the limitations of working from home have accentuated the importance of the office as a vital anchor for companies.
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In reality, the debate is more nuanced. While predictions that the office is on its way out are wide of the mark, the sector is suffering a more severe identity crisis than the one it faced before the pandemic.
The benefits of home working – huge savings on property portfolios, improvements in the well-being and productivity of many employees and, crucially, a quick and easy solution to managing the risks posed by the pandemic – have forced many occupiers to reassess how much, and what kind of, office space they need as they emerge from the crisis.
According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase expects to keep its offices across the world half-full at the most for the “foreseeable future”, while Citigroup is mulling opening satellite offices outside New York City to allow workers to spread out and avoid commuting into Manhattan.
This could presage a sharp reduction in demand for office space, with older, lower-specification buildings with high occupancy density most vulnerable. As McKinsey notes, the “multi-year trend towards densification [of office space] and open-plan layouts may reverse sharply”.
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Just as importantly, virus-induced changes in office functions and design are likely to result in some firms requiring more space to make their property portfolios safer and more resilient to future crises. With occupiers having crammed more and more workers onto floor plates over the past decade, companies may find they need more square footage per employee to facilitate social distancing.
This suggests that, in the short to medium term, the most likely scenario is reduced demand for buildings with high occupancy density, many of them located in the financial districts of major cities, and an increase in requirements for lower-density offices in suburban locations and smaller cities.
More importantly, the pandemic is pushing occupiers and landlords outside their comfort zones. Not only has the home office suddenly become an integral part of remote working, forcing companies to ramp up their investments in virtual infrastructure, office space needs to be redesigned radically.
The race is on for property managers to put in place new health and safety protocols that will gain the confidence of employees returning to their workplaces. Last month, Cushman & Wakefield’s “Recovery Readiness Task Force” published a 30-page guide to help businesses plan and manage the reopening of workplaces.
Yet, advice on how to virus-proof offices only goes so far. The landlords and occupiers who will have an edge are those who will understand how the office landscape will change in the post-Covid-19 world. McKinsey believes this will require real estate leaders to look to “psychologists, sociologists, futurists and technologists” for answers.
The office is here to stay, but how successful it will be in managing its identity crisis remains unclear.
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory
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