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Macroscope
Opinion
Anthony Rowley

Macroscope | White elephant? China’s Belt and Road Initiative deserves more credit in pandemic-ruined economy

  • China’s infrastructure initiative, which has been unfairly singled out for criticism, has made more progress than similar projects proposed by the US and others. It should be seen as an exercise in positive thinking and innovation

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A Chinese worker (left) inspects the rails at an inland container depot in Naivasha, Kenya on January 15. Photo: Xinhua
Could the post Covid-19 landscape become populated by a herd of “white elephants” in the form of transport, energy and other infrastructure projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but which will become redundant owing to a slump in economic activity?

Some of the scheme’s critics appear to believe so, although such scepticism is likely to prove misplaced. The prevailing view in certain Western capitals that China is busily building bridges, railways and highways to nowhere will probably be confounded by an increase in demand for infrastructure.

It will take the form of digital and smart infrastructure (likely incorporating China’s 5G and similar systems) as well as more conventional types of structures. It will be “multi-modal” infrastructure combining land, sea and air links, as envisaged in the initiative.

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There is also likely to be a huge increase in demand for renewable energy to slow climate change and for better social infrastructure in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which has revealed massive deficiencies in medical and sanitation systems capable of coping with pandemics.

The Economist recently devoted a lengthy article not to exploring such future developments but to looking instead at how the “pandemic is hurting China's Belt and Road Initiative” and to asking: “How will Xi Jinping's biggest project survive?”

As a result of Covid-19, the report noted, “work on some [belt and road] projects has come to a halt. A few have been scrapped. Several that seemed of dubious worth even before the pandemic now look like white elephants”. Many loans connected to the Belt and Road Initiative, the report added, “are on the brink of default as debtors seek to defer payments that are coming due”.
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