Opinion | The US dream of South China Sea hegemony will only lead to conflict with Beijing

Name: The South China Sea dispute explained
Uploaded: 2020-06-28T19:00:11.000Z
Duration: 3 min 23 s
Description: The South China Sea dispute explained

The US has diverted the narrative from the real issues and hyped China’s installations in the area as a symbol of its aggression against rival claimants

The situation will only get worse before it gets better and in the end the US will have to directly or indirectly share power with China

Reading Time:4 minutes

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Mark J. Valencia

Published: 3:00am, 29 Jun 2020Updated: 3:19am, 29 Jun 2020

Is peace in the South China Sea possible? The answer depends in part on one’s definition of “peace”. If it means simply an absence of war, then the South China Sea is already at peace. It is an unstable and unpredictable peace, though, and therefore dangerous.

If it means an environment free of confrontation and characterised by cooperation, mutual trust and respect, as well as by conduct that is in general compliance with an agreed standard, there is a long way to go. Because of the fundamental and intractable China-US dialectic, the South China Sea may not get to that state – at least in the foreseeable future.

Many analysts, including me, have proposed long-term bargains and short-term stabilising measures, but neither China nor the United States has paid them any heed. The situation has further deteriorated with both parties increasing their military presence in the area, with a corresponding rise in the frequency of incidents.

Nevertheless, direct military conflict between the two is unlikely in the short term. China is simply not ready for armed conflict with the US and its allies, and the US is distracted by domestic difficulties and isolationist tendencies that are likely to get worse before they get better, given the upcoming presidential election.

Although the two seem to have developed a modus operandi that has so far avoided worst-case scenarios, they are clearly on a long-term collision course in the South China Sea. The US has publicly declared China a “strategic competitor” and “revisionist” nation. It believes the two nations are engaged in “a geopolitical competition between free and repressive visions of world order” in the Indo-Pacific region.

03:23

The South China Sea dispute explained

A Council on Foreign Relations report says the US military “needs to continue conducting operations in the South China Sea to ensure its readiness in a number of contingencies, including the defence of Australia, Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan”. This is probably the real reason for the US military presence there – to maintain its regional hegemony. China believes the US wants to constrain its rightful rise and thereby continue its hegemony in the region.

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