Coronavirus, climate change and Trumpian politics affect us all and put a heavy burden on American voters

The Covid-19 pandemic adds to the challenges of a world only just beginning to see the ravages of climate change
Meanwhile, the US president’s hint that his administration might not abide by the results of the November election threatens democracy and could have global consequences

David Dodwell

Published: 3:30am, 24 Aug 2020

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My sense is that this weekend was a watershed. As the US Democratic Party Convention marked the earnest beginning of three months of unrelenting political warfare, and a serious challenge to the integrity of the democratic process, it seems we are slipping into a world, the likes of which we have never previously experienced.

I am not just talking about the Trumpian virus that has infected – and threatens – the world’s strongest and most vital economy and the iconic champion of cherished democratic principles. I am talking about the no-longer-novel coronavirus that haunts every corner of the world except Antarctica and seems likely to transform the world as we have known it for at least a century.

I am also talking about extraordinary weather events erupting worldwide that stand as harbingers of a climate crisis that is yet to fully unleash itself on us.

It is a world dangerously populated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “white swans” and “black swans”, the “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” which are infamously difficult to anticipate, and wreak immeasurable harm on even the most robust among us.

Across the world, temperatures have risen to levels never previously recorded. In the aptly named Furnace Creek in California’s Death Valley, a temperature of 54.4 degrees Celsius was recorded last week – the highest ever reliably recorded worldwide. California’s season of grim wildfires has already begun.

Meanwhile, from Taipei to Cyprus, from Madrid to Ottawa, meteorological offices have been recording the highest temperatures since records first began, often back into the 1880s. A heatwave in Siberia reached 38 degrees, triggering extensive wildfires in the Russian Arctic.

02:21

Months of fires in Siberia, Russia have scorched area larger than Greece

Here in Hong Kong, we have suffered the hottest July since records began in 1884 – averaging 33.3 degrees. Rainfall in July – just 125.4 millimetres – was one-third of normal for this time of year, and the rainfall for the year so far – 1,088mm – is 26 per cent down on the average. In contrast, vast swathes of China along the Yangtze River are struggling with floods on a scale not seen for decades.

As I write, almost half a million people have been displaced in Sichuan province, 165,000 hectares of farmland damaged and over 2,000 buildings destroyed. Direct economic costs have already passed 16.4 billion yuan (US$2.4 billion).

The US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that, worldwide, July was the second hottest on record – equalling 2016, and surpassed only by 2019. It reported that the extent of Arctic sea ice is 23.1 per cent below the average since records began in 1979.

Scientists, who have been studying for the first time the virtually inaccessible Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, have discovered similarly alarming sea-ice melt, with the potential to raise sea levels by 65cm. It has been dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier”, not surprisingly, since Antarctica holds about 90 per cent of the ice on the planet.

A study published earlier this year in Environmental Research Communications has predicted that rising seas could cost as much as 4 per cent of global gross domestic product by the end of the century.

02:17

China’s Three Gorges Dam faces severe flooding as Yangtze overflows

This worldwide epidemic of “weird weather”, clearly linked to climate change, provides a sobering reminder of the range of existential challenges we currently face – whether we care to acknowledge them or not.

I recall that in February 2016 I noted: “Whether humans are around or not matters little in the big sweep of history. Dinosaurs were around for several million years, and for whatever awful set of reasons, were exterminated. And the earth will continue to move on with or without us. These ‘weird’ occurrences are weird and threatening to us humans, but in the big picture, they are not weird at all.”

Back then, it was just weird weather I was worrying about. The Covid-19 pandemic has added a second layer of worry – weird health risks – as millions fall victim to the virus, hundreds of thousands die before their time and lockdowns inflict massive economic costs that will bring hardship, even poverty, to hundreds of millions.

03:24

Millions of Indians have been left jobless as Coronavirus pandemic continues to spread

Among the many unanticipated effects, lockdowns that have stalled environmental law enforcement, and deepened poverty pressures on populations close to tropical forests, have perversely resulted in an explosion of illegal logging and deforestation – resulting in even closer contact with animals and viruses that should best be left alone if we want to lower the dangers of new infectious diseases.

Alongside weird weather and weird health risks, we now face existential dangers from weird politics as the Donald Trump administration mulls whether it will accept the November election outcome if he is defeated. Recall his comment last week: “The only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged.”

From afar, we watch the alarming development of a profound political schizophrenia, with irreconcilably polarised groups stirring bitter debate and civil unrest in cities across the country.

Flipping from CNN to Fox News has become almost surreal as identical news events fuel bipolar responses. What is for some a righteous battle against long-standing racial inequality is for others an extremist godless challenge to law and order.

A protester throws a canister of tear gas back towards federal law enforcement officers during a demonstration against police violence and racial inequality in Portland, Oregon, on July 24. Photo: Reuters

What for some is a mendacious and incompetent failure by the administration to handle the spread of Covid-19 is seen by others as a valiant battle against a malicious Chinese plot to destabilise the US.

What some describe as a bumbling failure to provide urgently needed support to families facing joblessness and the biggest economic crisis of their lives is seen by others as a left-wing plot to derail a period of record economic performance.

This would all be sad enough if it were a problem confined to American shores. But it is not. As with the pandemic and the climate challenge, the political battle now being fought in the US is of global importance and has massive consequences for us all. It is as important to contain the Trumpian virus as it is to contain the coronavirus. A heavy responsibility sits on the shoulders of American voters.

David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view

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