Opinion | South China Sea: how the US can head off an ugly showdown with China
- Amid heightened tensions, the best scenario involves negotiations and power sharing. In the worst case, a clash leaves the region a cold-war zone, drives away oil and gas firms, and possibly splits Asean
- Unless the US is ready for war, it must learn to accommodate China
With more tit-for-tat rhetoric and military posturing, China and the United States seem to be heading towards a showdown in the South China Sea.
Upping the ante, on August 26, China fired vaunted “aircraft-carrier killer” missiles into the sea, apparently as a response to the US show of force there with aircraft carrier strike groups. This came after a US U-2 spy plane flew over Chinese naval exercises in the Bohai Sea in violation of a no-fly zone. The US followed up China’s missile test by deploying a ballistic missile-detection aircraft to spy on China’s military drills.
In a “good” scenario, a united Asean – or at least a majority of nations – would take a stand against both countries’ military posturing and build-up in the area. China and the US would pull in their horns and start to negotiate in earnest.
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Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions
China would, in turn, refrain from bullying its rival claimants and negotiate a modus operandi that includes sharing and cooperating on management of the resources of the South China Sea.