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Why Japan’s next leader should draw closer to China and South Korea instead of the US
- It is worth considering the vast economic potential of a strong Japan-China-South Korea alliance, against the declining powers of the US
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An unusually long period of political stability seems poised to end in Japan as Shinzo Abe steps down as prime minister. It could be a good thing if his successor chooses to strengthen relations with China and South Korea, and loosen ties with an erratic United States.
This is especially true where economic relations among the three East Asian powers are concerned because Abe, by virtue of his slavish attachment to President Donald Trump’s often destructive policies, has helped to polarise attitudes on regional cooperation.
How much and how quickly things change will depend on who is chosen on September 14 as the new president of the majority Liberal Democratic Party and prime minister.
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To understand what a realignment of relationships under a new Japanese leader might mean, it is necessary to think about the economic potential of a strong Japan-China-South Korea alliance.
It is sometimes said that Japan is in Asia but not of Asia, just as Britain is in, but not of, Europe. Each likes to believe it has a “special relationship” with the US that allows it to act semi-independently of neighbouring continents.
02:19
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigns for health reasons
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigns for health reasons
But this is an illusion. Just as Britain risks being cut adrift from Europe and economic reality by Brexit, so Japan risks being stranded between an increasingly China-led Asia and a US not yet adjusted to its declining power.
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