Coronavirus crisis offers Hong Kong a chance to reshape tourism

With recovery in travel, aviation and tourism not expected for several years, those reliant on global tourism have no choice but to reimagine their future

Hong Kong should use this opportunity to reduce its dependence on the mainland and become a hub for tourism across the Greater Bay Area

Reading Time:4 minutes

A person takes a selfie on The Peak on August 14. The damage inflicted by the pandemic and global lockdowns to the tourism sector is already breathtaking. Photo: Sam Tsang

Published: 7:45am, 14 Sep 2020Updated: 9:01am, 14 Sep 2020

Like it or not, we are about to face a tourism revolution. By “we” I mean not just Hong Kong – where a radical reshaping of our tourism industry is certain – but the entire world economy.

The damage inflicted by the pandemic and global lockdowns is already breathtaking, and hopes of the harm being temporary are fading. With recovery in the travel, aviation and tourism industries not expected for several years, a “tighten your belt and hold your breath” strategy cannot work. Hotels, airlines and the millions of people reliant on international tourism have no choice but to reimagine their future.

The UN’s World Tourism Organisation is forecasting a global fall of 60 to 80 per cent for 2020. The global total of international tourists is projected to fall by 850 million, to 1.2 billion, with revenues down US$910 billion, to US$1.2 trillion and tourism jobs down 100 million, to 120 million.

For the Asia-Pacific, the World Travel and Tourism Council predicts 60 million to 115 million jobs will be lost – from a starting point of 182 million jobs at the end of 2019 – as the number of arrivals falls by 40 to 67 per cent. Tourism revenue, which amounted to almost US$3 trillion in 2019, is forecast to fall by between US$980 billion and US$1.88 trillion, depending on whether you apply optimistic or pessimistic scenarios.

The world’s three continent-sized domestic markets – the United States, China and the European Union – might buck this otherwise calamitous trend with a more rapid recovery of domestic travel. Chinese domestic air travel in July was just 5 per cent below July 2019. For the rest of the world, though, the prognosis is pervasively bleak.

The challenge will be particularly acute for economies heavily reliant on tourism, such as Macau, Thailand and the Philippines. Those like Hong Kong or Singapore, for whom there is no domestic travel industry, also face a stiff test.