Opinion | Can Asean dance its way out of having to take sides in the US-China conflict?

Name: Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions
Uploaded: 2020-09-15T01:15:06.000Z
Duration: 2 min 32 s
Description: Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions

As tensions mount, Southeast Asian countries will need some fancy footwork to preserve Asean’s unity and centrality in deciding regional issues

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Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc addresses a live video conference during the opening ceremony of the 53rd Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held online due to the coronavirus pandemic, in Hanoi on September 9. Photo: AFP

Mark J. Valencia

Published: 9:15am, 15 Sep 2020Updated: 6:39pm, 12 Nov 2020

The US-China contest for domination of Southeast Asia was front and centre at the recent round of Asean-hosted meetings. As the confrontation in the South China Sea heats up and pressure mounts on Southeast Asian states to choose sides, they have increased the tempo of what Singapore’s former ambassador Bilahari Kausikan calls their instinctive “diplomatic dance” involving the ability to “balance, hedge and bandwagon”. Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will need to be quick on their feet to dance their way out of this dilemma.

First, these countries do not want to risk becoming puppets or surrogates for either larger power, as happened during the Cold War. At the recent meetings, Malaysian Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said, “Southeast Asia intends to remain the master of its own destiny”.

Second, they do not want to lose their collective centrality in managing regional security. Moreover, their individual national interests make choosing between the US and China difficult. While many may be more ideologically aligned with the United States and prefer its security protection, there are economic and longer-term geopolitical reasons that make them reluctant to confront China – even with US backing.

Tensions rose on July 13 when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an in-your-face anti-China policy statement on the South China Sea, raising China’s hackles and the stakes. China has responded in kind and more – both diplomatically and militarily.

02:32

Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions

In the run up to and at the Asean-hosted meetings, China and the US sharply criticised each other and appealed to Southeast Asian countries to support their position. Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe, on a tour of the region, offered a carrot by saying that China was willing to work with Asean countries in the South China Sea “to meet each halfway”.

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.css-1mniedq{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;} As tensions mount, Southeast Asian countries will need some fancy footwork to preserve Asean’s unity and centrality in deciding regional issues

As tensions mount, Southeast Asian countries will need some fancy footwork to preserve Asean’s unity and centrality in deciding regional issues