Three lessons from China’s Singles’ Day for a pandemic-hit retail world

When Alibaba calls time on its “Singles’ Day” e-shopping extravaganza on November 11, there will be three massive takeaways for the retail sector, illustrating the colossal structural and probably permanent changes that are roiling the sector worldwide.

First, it will confirm the sound consumer recovery under way in China, making it one of a few economies worldwide that will report positive economic growth in 2020.

After China’s positive gross domestic product growth of 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, the International Monetary Fund is predicting full-year growth of 1.9 per cent – anaemic by China’s standards, but a blessing compared to expected falls of at least 4.3 per cent in the US, 9.8 per cent in the UK, and 7.5 per cent here in Hong Kong.

Second, it will confirm the shift towards e-commerce, with China leading the way. And third, it will undoubtedly reflect the massive shift in consumer habits that has occurred during the pandemic. Some of these may be temporary, but a lot may be here for good. The pandemic has also created unprecedented volatility.