Opinion | Why Trump’s Pentagon reshuffle is unlikely to raise the China war risk

US military chiefs have played down the threat of radical action with China and many think the reshuffle is to fulfil Trump’s vow to bring troops in Afghanistan home by Christmas

China is also unlikely to rise to provocations, and will probably wait out Trump’s term to assess Biden’s policies

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Published: 1:15am, 23 Nov 2020Updated: 1:17am, 23 Nov 2020

US President Donald Trump has abruptly replaced defence secretary Mark Esper with Christopher Miller, who he had only recently appointed as National Counterterrorism Centre director. This and other Pentagon replacements have analysts worried about US-China military relations.

Some fear that Trump, enraged at losing the election, may try to hamstring Joe Biden’s China policy by provoking Beijing, particularly over the South China Sea and Taiwan. There are many reasons this is unlikely and, in any case, China is unlikely to take the bait.

True, the situation is dangerous, and a breach of China’s red lines could spiral into conflict and war. China and the US have ramped up their belligerent rhetoric, military presence and posturing, greatly worrying the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

With China increasingly nationalistic, any loss of face (and resultant loss of respect for its leadership) could cross a red line and provoke a response. One example would be a confrontation with the US military that ends up forcing a public climbdown by China’s military.

The US has been inching closer to such red lines with its increased freedom of navigation operations challenging Chinese claims in the South China Sea.

It has also increased pressure on China’s leadership over the Taiwan issue with more frequent passages of US warships through the sensitive Taiwan Strait, despite China’s protests. After Taiwan received its first official visit from a US Cabinet member, the US agreed to sell Taiwan drones and standoff land attack missiles that would enable Taiwan to strike the Chinese mainland.