How RCEP will boost Asian integration in trade, supply chains and strategic ties
- RCEP represents the most significant, ambitious regional trade deal for decades, with medium- and long-term benefits
- Strengthened economic ties and standard alignments will help ensure China’s lost supply chain stays in Asia – to the benefit of members and the detriment of India
Some of its agreement in areas of information-sharing and standards adoption are also non-binding. That creates risk for non-compliance, which might be difficult to address by the existing dispute-settlement mechanism embedded in the agreement.
Nevertheless, RCEP still represents the most significant and ambitious regional trade deal since the formation of the North American Free Trade Area and the European free trade zone. I believe RCEP will have profound impact on the Asian economies in the medium to long term through three dimensions.
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RCEP: 15 Asia-Pacific countries sign world’s largest free-trade deal
A model study done by the Peterson Institute for International Economics shows that RCEP will boost China, South Korea and Japan’s GDP by as much as 1 percentage point in 2030, and the entire RCEP region by 0.5 per cent of GDP.
RCEP’s synergy with China’s economic strategy will benefit Asia
The second channel of impact is via supply-chain deployment and productivity-enhancing reforms. RCEP has provisions on investment, opening the service sector, tech standards, labour market rules, IP protection and so on.
Although not as strict as the CPTPP, fulfilling these criteria will require member countries to make structural reforms. If diligently implemented, they could create a key source of productivity growth for the less-developed countries in the coming years.
The strengthened economic ties and standard alignments will help ensure China’s lost supply chain stays in Asia. The biggest potential loser is India, which some expected to succeed China as the next factory of the world.
Finally, the geostrategic and geopolitical consequence of RCEP should not be downplayed. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has demonstrated its ability to stitch together an ambitious trade deal involving countries at different stages of development. As a result, the success of RCEP’s formation will raise Asean’s voice on the global stage.
China, though not the initiator of the agreement, is a proponent of regional economic integration. It supports globalisation against the backdrop of rising protectionism.
By tying the economic interests of RCEP countries together, it will make splitting Asia by other, perhaps political, means more difficult. In that regard, India’s decision to opt out of the pact could have both economic and geopolitical implications.
Aidan Yao is senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers