Opinion | US and its allies must be wary of provoking South China Sea conflict over freedom of navigation
- For China, the disputed waters are a historically vulnerable underbelly that must be turned into a natural shield for its national security
- Beijing feels politically and militarily cornered, and the presence of American allies’ navies in US-led operations will only exacerbate that feeling
However, there is an incipient development that could convince China that war is inevitable and tempt it to respond accordingly. That is the joining of US allies – Britain, France, Germany, Japan and Australia – in material support of US policy in the South China Sea.
They appear to be preparing to send their navies to the region and might even participate in US-led freedom of navigation operations (Fonops) challenging China’s claims.
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Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
Aside from this nationalistic conceptual angst, there are specific strategic reasons for China’s concern. The South China Sea provides relative sanctuary for its second-strike nuclear submarines. They are its insurance against a first strike, something the US has not disavowed.