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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Opinion
Opinion
by Brian P. Klein
Opinion
by Brian P. Klein

US-China relations: door is open for Biden and Xi to move beyond Trump-era hostilities

  • Whether the US and China can forge agreements on broader coexistence is uncertain. Cautious pragmatism may be the best one can hope for while the dangers of miscalculation or worse continue to rein in more extreme views on both sides

Beijing and Washington will have an opportunity to improve relations when US President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20. After four years of acrimony, it won’t take much. The inflammatory White House rhetoric will surely cease, including the litany of “China virus” barbs.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs might even end their “wolf warrior” Twitter campaigns of maximum insult. There is little reason to think a dramatic shift lies beyond a return to diplomatic formalities, though.

The United States and China are different countries now than they were four years ago. Both have entered a new phase in their bilateral relations, and definitions of what passes for normal will need to adjust to the circumstances.

This much is certain – there is no going back to the way things were, no blank slate, no reset between countries with such a long and complicated history. To be sanguine about the cosy incoherence of previous US administrations’ China policies is to drift with fanciful illusions.

02:14

Japan-US hold joint military drills including cyberwarfare training as concerns about China grow

Japan-US hold joint military drills including cyberwarfare training as concerns about China grow
So, too, is the realists’ mantra of working together where interests align and opposing each other where they don’t. This simplistic formula has a ring of homespun wisdom when any attempt at dialogue is sold as a success. Instead, expect more straight talk, fewer bilateral summits and a host of slow-burn disagreements held loosely in check by shows of force and multilateral engagement.
This different approach comes in part because America has changed, and not just from the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent economic turmoil. Commercial interests – long China’s staunchest advocates for warmer relations – no longer hold as much sway in Washington policy circles as they once did, on the left or the right.

Firms eager to enter a new market with dollar signs in their eyes have had those rose-tinted glasses removed. While some US companies have had tremendous success, the seemingly limitless market potential of an even playing field has eluded many firms, such as US banks and credit card companies.

The general US public now has a more realistic view of China. Abuses are more widely understood, from forced Uygur labour in China’s far west to the crackdown on Hong Kong’s once-thriving democracy. Popular support for human rights and national-security-based sanctions will remain a standard fixture of US policy, much more so than in the past.
Biden faces pressure to maintain a harder line on Beijing from unions and anti-traders on the left, as well as the right with outgoing US President Donald Trump’s potentially lasting influence on the Republican Party. Major manufacturers are already planning for this very future by shifting supply chains to other countries.

06:04

US-China relations: Joe Biden would approach China with more ‘regularity and normality’

US-China relations: Joe Biden would approach China with more ‘regularity and normality’

The term “Indo-Pacific” has eclipsed a China-centric approach to engaging with Asia, migrating from think tanks to mainstream policy and crossing party lines. Biden has already used the term in a recent national security speech, giving the first indications that this shift will continue.

Punitive tariffs and a return to made-in-America manufacturing have also become platforms adopted by politicians of both US political parties. That would not have struck such a bipartisan chord without China changing as well.

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China is no longer the country Henry Kissinger knew when he sought to counter Soviet expansionism. It is not the country of Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up”, when dreams of eventual democratic reforms danced in the heads of Westerners eager for engagement.
This is President Xi Jinping’s China, of term limits without end, where the primacy of state and party reign over the power of the market.

China’s shift towards more authoritarian control shows no signs of weakening. To the contrary, Beijing’s grip on Hong Kong has only intensified despite international condemnation and risks to the city’s reputation as a hub of regional finance.

A new national security law was recently used as a pretext for mass arrests of political opposition figures. Even privately held mainland businesses have come under increasing government scrutiny with an increase in the role of Communist Party control over their activities.

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Despite the ideological rifts that threaten the US-China relationship, a clear, unambiguous China policy coming from Washington would be a positive development. It would be an improvement over the spasms of ill-conceived and executed policies of late, including the recent ban on Alipay and other apps that would not take effect until after Trump’s departure and the flip-flop on delisting Chinese firms.

Jake Sullivan, the incoming national security adviser, has at least set the tone by characterising China as a “serious strategic competitor”, not as an adversary or an enemy. Win one for the pragmatists.

02:32

Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions

Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions
Grand pronouncements, however, are unlikely to better define US expectations beyond a range of limits and red lines to avoid adventurism, including North Korean and Iranian nuclear development and free passage through the South China Sea.

Without a doubt, the next few years will be difficult at best as this new relationship takes form and alternative approaches to solving persistent problems develop. The US will choose multilateral engagement as opposed to the Trumpian go-it-alone strategy of the past four years.

US-China relations aren’t likely to recover soon, whoever is president next

That is good news for the US-China relationship as some of the most contentious issues will no longer be reduced to simplistic zero-sum gains and losses between the two nations.

Whether Washington and Beijing take the opportunity to forge agreements on broader coexistence is still an open question. A cautious pragmatism is perhaps the best one can hope for at this juncture while the dangers of miscalculation or worse continue to rein in more extreme views in both capitals.

Brian P. Klein (@brianpklein) is a geopolitical and economic strategist and former US diplomat

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