US-China relations: door is open for Biden and Xi to move beyond Trump-era hostilities
- Whether the US and China can forge agreements on broader coexistence is uncertain. Cautious pragmatism may be the best one can hope for while the dangers of miscalculation or worse continue to rein in more extreme views on both sides
Beijing and Washington will have an opportunity to improve relations when US President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20. After four years of acrimony, it won’t take much. The inflammatory White House rhetoric will surely cease, including the litany of “China virus” barbs.
The United States and China are different countries now than they were four years ago. Both have entered a new phase in their bilateral relations, and definitions of what passes for normal will need to adjust to the circumstances.
This much is certain – there is no going back to the way things were, no blank slate, no reset between countries with such a long and complicated history. To be sanguine about the cosy incoherence of previous US administrations’ China policies is to drift with fanciful illusions.
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Firms eager to enter a new market with dollar signs in their eyes have had those rose-tinted glasses removed. While some US companies have had tremendous success, the seemingly limitless market potential of an even playing field has eluded many firms, such as US banks and credit card companies.
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The term “Indo-Pacific” has eclipsed a China-centric approach to engaging with Asia, migrating from think tanks to mainstream policy and crossing party lines. Biden has already used the term in a recent national security speech, giving the first indications that this shift will continue.
Punitive tariffs and a return to made-in-America manufacturing have also become platforms adopted by politicians of both US political parties. That would not have struck such a bipartisan chord without China changing as well.
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China’s shift towards more authoritarian control shows no signs of weakening. To the contrary, Beijing’s grip on Hong Kong has only intensified despite international condemnation and risks to the city’s reputation as a hub of regional finance.
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Jake Sullivan, the incoming national security adviser, has at least set the tone by characterising China as a “serious strategic competitor”, not as an adversary or an enemy. Win one for the pragmatists.
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Without a doubt, the next few years will be difficult at best as this new relationship takes form and alternative approaches to solving persistent problems develop. The US will choose multilateral engagement as opposed to the Trumpian go-it-alone strategy of the past four years.
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That is good news for the US-China relationship as some of the most contentious issues will no longer be reduced to simplistic zero-sum gains and losses between the two nations.
Whether Washington and Beijing take the opportunity to forge agreements on broader coexistence is still an open question. A cautious pragmatism is perhaps the best one can hope for at this juncture while the dangers of miscalculation or worse continue to rein in more extreme views in both capitals.
Brian P. Klein (@brianpklein) is a geopolitical and economic strategist and former US diplomat