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South China Sea: Analysis
Opinion
Mark J. Valencia

Opinion | South China Sea: Biden has a chance to allow diplomacy to lead instead of military action

  • Putting the military cart before the diplomatic horse begets tit-for-tat responses from China that increase militarisation and scare Southeast Asian nations
  • Biden needs to reassess US freedom of navigation operations, clarify American ‘red lines’, reassure Asean and broker a balance of power with China

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Under US President Joe Biden, one of the first American defence department acts was to create a task force to review its military approach to China. This is sorely needed. US-China relations are at a nadir, particularly over the South China Sea.
Indeed, the goal of previous administrations of maintaining primacy in the South China Sea is probably unsustainable, and their progressively militarist approach has clearly been ineffective, counterproductive and risky.

So far, the Biden approach continues to put the military cart before the diplomatic horse. But this only begets tit-for-tat responses from China that increase militarisation and frighten Southeast Asian countries that would suffer from any conflict. Yet this may only be a temporary holdover to strengthen the US bargaining position.

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Still, any change in emphasis must begin soon or Biden will be seen as continuing the pursuit of unsustainable hegemony. But what needs to be changed?

First, the United States needs to reconsider its goals in the region and the South China Sea. Maintaining the status quo is not acceptable to the US or China’s rival claimants because it is inexorably evolving in China’s favour.

02:32

Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions

Washington’s hardened position on Beijing’s claims in South China Sea heightens US-China tensions
Biden’s appointment of Kurt Campbell as Indo-Pacific policy coordinator offers hope of a change. He thinks there is “the need for a balance of power; the need for an order that the region’s states recognise as legitimate; and the need for an allied and partner coalition to address China’s challenge to both.”
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