Opinion | Myanmar coup: Asean leadership offers best chance to avert a refugee crisis

A breakthrough could be in the offing as China lends support to an Asean-led initiative to de-escalate the situation in Myanmar and bring warring parties to a dialogue. Last week, foreign ministers from Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines flew to Nanping in southeastern Fujian province to meet Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The four one-on-one meetings took place against the backdrop of spiralling violence in Myanmar, putting neighbours on edge and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ gravitas on the line.

China remains the most influential major power in Myanmar. Hence, getting Beijing on board raises the prospects for an Asean-centric solution to dial down tensions and foster a climate conducive for talks. The early February coup exposed governance and subregional cleavages within Asean on how to deal with the unfolding crisis. Beijing’s weight could help break that impasse.

Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines – four of the region’s maritime democracies and among Asean’s founding members – are pressing for an immediate halt to further bloodshed and offering the bloc’s offices to mediate. 

In contrast, Myanmar’s immediate neighbours in peninsular Southeast Asia remain reticent, with Thailand, Laos and Vietnam even dispatching representatives to attend the 76th Myanmar Armed Forces Day on March 27, which marked the most violent crackdown against civilian protesters to date with more than 100 reported fatalities in a single day.