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Taiwan
Opinion
Tom Plate

Opinion | US-China relations: don’t let Taiwan fall prey to madness of war from either side of the Pacific

  • A Taiwan embroiled in war would pump uncertainty into the world economy as it is an important exporter of semiconductors and other products
  • Wrap it up in war and you choke the global electronic supply chain just as the world is starting to see signs of economic recovery from the pandemic

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

Perhaps no gloomier assessment of the China-US relationship can be made than to note that, were it to sink yet another notch or two, there would be no relationship at all. Like a Japanese garden so minimalist that removing one stone might vitiate its existence, the bilateral Sino-American relationship seems unnervingly close to bouncing off rock bottom.

Decades after the Cold War with Moscow, with the shimmer of a potential conflict with Beijing over the horizon, the Pacific Ocean’s current calm might well be nothing more than a deception just before the big storm crashes.

The US 7th Fleet appears to have an expectation of some kind of People’s Liberation Army lurch into Taiwan, or at least a slice of it. Taiwan’s oft-admired democracy might imagine its fellow democracy in the United States would come to shore it up. But taking the side of David – Taiwan, population 24 million – against Goliath – mainland China, population 1.4 billion – might only make sense to those Americans who favour almost any underdog or any sort of democratic government.
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On the whole, the Pentagon is sprucing up its weapons of war at warp speed but is not exactly eager to use them. One recent US study concluded that if Beijing was to go on an all-out offensive, America’s ability to save Taiwan’s democracy – short of the nuclear option, which would presumably leave very little for anybody – is problematic.

Taiwan is without question a treasure in many respects. That treasure is also very many miles away, though, as was Vietnam and as is Iraq. America, still recovering from the Donald Trump presidency and with pressing problems at home in addition to fighting the Covid-19 pandemic, will not easily be sold yet another foreign rescue mission.

10:22

Why has the relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan taken a turn for the worse?

Why has the relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan taken a turn for the worse?

By contrast, f­or US President Joe Biden, a war averted because of deft diplomacy that broke the momentum towards flying off the cliff and into the abyss would earn much more than some mere peace prize. It would earn global gratitude.

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