How will Hong Kong’s electoral system reform play out?

With so much power concentrated in the hands of a small number of gatekeepers, will there be meaningful competition in the chief executive election?
Even if pro-democracy candidates are able to overcome the tough entry hurdles, will any be willing to take part in the new-style legislative elections?

Regina Ip

Published: 8:45am, 9 May 2021

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In Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, “renewed” by the departure of 19 pro-democracy lawmakers following the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s decision on the removal of Legco members last November, the legislative process has moved forward at a much brisker pace that was undreamed of for years.

The legislature passed a record seven bills, including the budget, in one day on April 28. The committee set up to study over 600 pages of complex amendments to electoral rules completed its task after 37 hours of work spread over 12 meetings.

Before the exit of the pro-democracy legislators, such progress would have been unthinkable. They would have resorted to strong-arm tactics to prevent politically unacceptable legislation from inching forward, as they did in 2019 to obstruct the passage of the fugitive offenders bill. The pan-dems blocked access to the chamber so that meetings could not even be held.

While supporters welcome the sea change as a return to colonial-era civility and efficiency, frontline reporters are quietly disappointed at the lack of drama and high-decibel opposition.

The concerns of the media and other watchdog organisations about the possibility of insufficient checks and balances are understandable, but there is no need to equate all-or-nothing and anti-China defiance with an indispensable counterbalance.

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With the legislature dominated by pro-government lawmakers, the electoral reform legislation mandated by the central government is set to be passed at a Legco meeting on May 26, possibly extending over a few days.

The passage of the new laws by the end of May is critical, as what follows is a tightly dovetailed timetable for registration of voters in new constituencies, compilation of voter registers, nomination of candidates for the 1,500-strong Election Committee, the election of this committee on September 19, the election of the seventh, and enlarged, Legislative Council on December 19, and, most important of all, the next chief executive election on March 27, 2022.

The good news is there will be no further deferral of the next round of Legislative Council elections.

Furthermore, with the composition of the new Legco and new Election Committee likely to be heavily loaded with pro-China representatives, fears of the next legislature or the chief executive post being usurped by anti-China elements can be dismissed. The pan-dems’ dream of “regime change” through manipulating the electoral process has been ground to dust.

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Under the new national security laws, agitators for such illicit change, akin to insurgents in the United States who wanted to overturn the outcome of lawfully held elections, have either fled or are facing charges which could land them with long custodial sentences.

The hard part follows after the new electoral arrangements have been put in place. The fact is, the Election Committee will be given substantial additional powers. It will not only have the power to nominate and elect the next chief executive, but also the power to nominate and elect 40 members of the new Legislative Council.

Government officials confirmed that each member of the Election Committee could nominate a maximum of five candidates, although significantly fewer people would be entitled to elect these candidates.

That means considerable political power will be concentrated in the hands of a much smaller number of electors, even though many of them will be well-qualified individuals drawn from commerce and industry, academia, the professions and the technology sector.

The strong contingent of pro-China members on the Election Committee will keep the republic’s enemies at bay. But the question is, with so much power concentrated in China’s gatekeepers, will there be meaningful competition in the chief executive election next March?

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Hong Kong needs a leader who is not only trusted by Beijing, but also able to navigate the conflicting interests and pressures inherent in the “one country, two systems” formula, as well as win the confidence of Hong Kong people.

The same quandaries apply to Legco in December. Will the new Candidate Eligibility Review Committee, with its heavy emphasis on loyalty and national security, permit candidates from the pro-democracy camp to take part?

The requirement that candidates secure at least two nominations from each of the five sectors represented on the Election Committee is another tall order. Even if candidates are able to overcome both hurdles, will any be willing to take part in the new-style legislative elections?

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Would the credibility of the reformed legislature be affected if no dissenting candidates are returned? And if the pan-dems decline to take part in the elections, will they be able to make any meaningful comeback four years on?

Both the framers of the new electoral system in Beijing, as well as their democratic opponents in Hong Kong, face similar difficult choices and dilemmas.

How do you ensure electoral safety without undermining checks and balances, accountability and the credibility of the legislature? How do you ensure seats of power are filled by reliable people of ability and integrity, who will command the respect and trust of the people?

The democratic revolution pushed by the British rulers in their final days aroused some dreams, but the distortion of the democratic movement into a conflict pitting Hong Kong against China has brought the short-lived movement to a traumatic halt.

Looking back, in the light of the rising turmoil as Hong Kong became more democratic, democracy was an experiment which did not work well.

Now the curtain is being raised on another experiment. Many in the nation, and the rest of the world, will be watching, with much foreboding, the outcome of the latest swing of the pendulum.

Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee is a lawmaker and chairwoman of the New People’s Party