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Macroscope
Opinion
David Brown

Why the global chip shortage is a good sign for the world economy

  • Demand for semiconductors is growing as world economic activity recovers. A combination of stronger recovery and inflation shows the global economy is returning to some semblance of normality

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US President Joe Biden holds up a silicon wafer as he participates virtually in the CEO Summit on Semiconductor and Supply Chain Resilience, in the White House on April 12. Photo: AP

They may seem like small fry but they make our world go around. Whether in Tesla cars, toasters or tumble dryers, computer chips are so integral to our daily lives that, without them, our world would grind to a halt.

So it’s a worry as the world gears up for a faster recovery that global demand for semiconductor chips is outstripping supply. It could be symptomatic of a more widespread global supply-side shortage of key production goods, which might lead to increased prices and higher inflation.

The OECD reports that inflation in the major economies rose to 2.4 per cent in March. Inflation is coming back, but it’s not the bogeyman that markets need to fear. Higher prices are a sign of economic vitality, of which the world has been in short supply since the Covid-19 crisis began.

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The pandemic may be far from over, but the combination of stronger recovery and inflation shows the global economy is returning to some semblance of normality.

It’s not purely the pandemic which is to blame, although production dislocations due to lockdowns and factory shutdowns certainly haven’t helped. As companies around the world slashed production during the early phase of the coronavirus crisis last year, semiconductor manufacturers were forced to scale back output as well.
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Now, chip producers are playing catch-up, trying to keep pace with the surge in global demand for semiconductors as world economic activity bounces back.

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