Opinion | US-China race for surveillance supremacy in South China Sea risks a needless clash
- China is catching up but still can’t match the US’ network of spy planes, surface vessels, submarines, satellites, and drones. In the process, both are testing the bounds of existing international law and increasing the likelihood of confrontation
A country needs superior maritime domain awareness to control maritime space. To this end, China has made impressive advances in the number, variety and quality of its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities in the South China Sea.
The United States’ ISR capabilities there are still superior. Nevertheless, China’s attempts to close the gap and the US’ strides to maintain its supremacy are challenging the boundaries of international law and increasing the likelihood of international incidents.
China’s response has been to develop on some South China Sea features it occupies the capability to neutralise US ISR in time of conflict. For China, these installations are key to its security and it is not about to budge no matter how much the US and others bluster.
These dynamics also have serious implications for US allies and partners in Asia. Indeed, the countries that provide places for American ISR, including Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, could become China’s targets if US-China hostilities break out.
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According to Felix Chang, a former US intelligence officer, China’s improved ISR capabilities in the South China Sea have been demonstrated by its maritime forces’ faster response times to events there. Chang suggests China’s intent is to “develop an ISR network capable of targeting ships far out to sea”.