Why China’s future remains bright regardless of shrinking population fears
- China’s future wealth is linked to rising productivity and more skill and technology intensity, so having fewer people is less important
- Urbanisation, better education and job opportunities for women and improved productivity will have greater influence on China’s future
Perhaps the superficiality is inevitable as Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics dumps a gigantic trove of mostly undigested data on us. Perhaps better insights will appear as people have time to delve in more detail. I hope so, because for those who want to understand China, the census has much to offer.
I have no plan here to delve into the specifics of the new data. There will be demographers who in coming weeks can do a much better job than I could. Instead, let me pose some questions about China’s demographics that might be useful as we think about where the country has come from and where it is headed.
First is the census’s simple reminder of China’s size. It is too big for most of us to properly imagine. Some of its provinces would sit among the world’s largest countries if they were independent states.