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Opinion | US-China tensions put Philippines in a tight spot on renewing Visiting Forces Agreement
- The strain on the Philippines from dealing with the two great powers jostling for geopolitical influence in Southeast Asia is becoming apparent
- Manila faces questions over whether any concessions it gets from the US are worth the added risk should US-China conflict break out
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Indecisiveness about a two-decade-old military pact is highlighting the tightrope the Philippines has to walk as the US and China, its two most important security and trade partners, lock horns.
Under the leadership of President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines might go down in history as the only country to curse a sitting US president and drop an F-bomb on China and yet still engage both. However, the strain of dealing with the two great powers jostling for geopolitical influence in Southeast Asia is becoming apparent.
On May 21, Manila hosted the sixth round of the Philippines-China bilateral consultation mechanism meeting, which for the first time produced neither a joint statement nor a joint press release. Instead, both sides issued separate press releases, suggesting undercurrents of discord. It was also the first time the meeting was held virtually.
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Manila has stridently protested about the continued presence of Chinese ships in its exclusive economic zone, while Beijing has professed dismay over what it sees as overhyping of the issue. Both sides have agreed to discuss compensation for Filipino fishermen whose ship was sunk in a collision with a Chinese vessel at Recto Bank in 2019.
On the other side of the equation, Manila and Washington have yet to agree on whether to continue the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) after months of negotiations. Signed in 1998, it provides legal cover for American troops to visit the country to train with their Filipino counterparts. Duterte abrogated the accord last February but has twice deferred termination.
02:37
Philippines sounds alarm over 200 Chinese ships in the South China Sea
Philippines sounds alarm over 200 Chinese ships in the South China Sea
But with the August deadline fast closing in, there is still no light at the end of the tunnel for the pact. The US could reportedly withdraw its troops by June or July if the agreement is not renewed. And Washington may not be so enthusiastic about a third deferment, given the difficulties of keeping alliance commitments on the basis of short, precarious six-month time frames.
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