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Central banks
Opinion
Nicholas Spiro

Macroscope | Markets show a worrying lack of concern over Delta variant and other risks to growth

  • It is increasingly apparent that most investors are no longer concerned about threats to the global economy and markets
  • They seem just as indifferent to virus-induced threats to growth as they are about growth-induced threats to financial stability

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People queue outside a vaccination centre in Sydney on June 24 as residents were largely banned from leaving the city to stop a growing outbreak of the highly contagious Covid-19 Delta variant spreading to other regions. Photo: AFP

As the second half of the year gets under way, sentiment in financial markets remains resolutely bullish. The benchmark S&P 500 equity index gained 14.4 per cent in the first half of this year, its second-best performance since 1998, according to data from Bloomberg.

Global stocks, meanwhile, stand at a record high. Spreads on junk-rated corporate bonds in the United States have fallen to their lowest level since before the 2008 financial crisis.

Even in emerging markets, where the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has been hampered by slow vaccination roll-outs and fresh waves of infections, bond and equity funds have attracted US$135 billion in net inflows this year. That is compared with US$55 billion for the whole of 2019, according to data from JPMorgan.
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Yet, the statistics do not tell the whole story. In the past few months, it has become increasingly apparent that most investors have stopped worrying about threats to the global economy and markets.

While complacency has been a recurring theme in the past decade, mostly because of the distorting effects of central banks’ quantitative easing programmes on asset prices, the insouciance is striking, given the acute risks in post-pandemic markets.

To be sure, the remarkable progress in deploying vaccines in advanced economies has been a major factor pushing markets higher.

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