Macroscope | German election: why China-Germany tensions won’t be eased, whoever wins
- Germany’s election campaign has lacked a proper debate about China, despite fears its industry is losing out in trade
- Germany appears to be heading for Merkelism without Merkel, which is not necessarily good for bilateral relations
The first is that Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor for the past 16 years, will step down, marking the end of an era in which Europe’s most powerful leader provided an anchor for European integration and was the most passionate defender of the West’s liberal values.
The second is that Merkel’s succession will not be smooth. Political fragmentation – different coalition permutations are possible after polling day on September 26 – makes it all but certain that the next government will lack a strong mandate for the hard decisions Germany needs to take.
That financial markets are not in the least bit concerned about the post-Merkel era – the Dax, Germany’s main equity index, is trading close to an all-time-high – might suggest a degree of complacency.
A more plausible interpretation is that the odds of Merkel’s successor charting a different course are slim. This is especially so in foreign affairs, particularly when it comes to China, a sensitive policy area given concerns over Germany industry’s dependence on an increasingly authoritarian and economically more sophisticated Middle Kingdom.