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Asean
Opinion
Mark J. Valencia

Opinion | Caught between China and the US, Asean must be louder and brasher about peace

  • Most Southeast Asian nations have traditionally preferred not to have to choose between the US and China
  • But with US-driven security partnerships potentially endangering peace, particularly in the South China Sea, Asean should speak up and ask both sides to restrain themselves

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Illustration: Stephen Case
US-driven anti-China security partnerships such as the Quad and now Aukus have raised the likelihood of a US-China clash in the South China Sea. China’s reaction is likely to make the situation more dangerous. In the event of conflict, Asean members will be losers, directly and indirectly.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and related summits will be held on October 26 to 28 in Brunei, followed by the East Asia Summit in November. It is not hyperbole to ask if this upcoming round of high-level meetings will be Asean’s last chance as an organisation to assert itself and avert a clash in the South China Sea.

The Quad and Aukus are the United States’ strategic moves to counter what it sees as the “China threat” to its hegemony in Asia. These actions were taken because Asean has been spectacularly ineffective in dealing with regional security issues like the South China Sea dispute.
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The US and its allies had wanted to use Asean or some of its members as a bulwark against China. But they would not cooperate to the extent the US wanted. So America and its allies went around them and formed the Quad and Aukus, which effectively weaken Asean.

With regard to the Australia-UK-US security alliance, Rizal Sukma, a former Indonesian ambassador to Britain, noted: “Some are supportive, like Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Some are opposed, like Malaysia, and there are those who are concerned, including Indonesia. Others remain silent, such as Brunei and Laos.”

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Although Asean often affirms its aspirations to centrality in regional security affairs, in reality, this would depend on its unity. If it wants to stem the drift into regional instability and conflict, it must find sufficient common ground to tell America and China what it would like them to do and not do.

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