Getting to net zero is going to be a brutal slog. Are we ready to make the drastic changes needed?
- Rocketing fossil fuel prices worldwide make it clear the transition to sustainability is going to be messier and more costly than we think
- Political leaders need the will to make unpopular decisions, and consumers will have to make significant lifestyle changes
Soaring fossil fuel prices worldwide have provided stark warnings on the difficulty and huge cost of the transition to sustainability, both for governments, and for us as individuals. But evidence of the political or personal will to make the necessary hard choices remains thin on the ground.
The long-awaited Glasgow summit will undoubtedly bring hard talk, and a plethora of grand-sounding pledges, but as Brooke Masters at the Financial Times said late last month: “Stunts and pious pledges won’t save the planet.”
Oil prices, meanwhile, are heading for above US$80 a barrel as Opec leaders resist pressure to boost production, and British drivers are panic buying petrol as pumps run dry.
And, in an untimely piece of divine intervention, Europe and Britain suffered falls in renewables after a summer of below-average wind and sunshine.
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Just as Europe’s economies cranked up demand for power as the Covid-19 recovery began, so the renewables needed to deliver us from our unsustainable dependency on fossil fuels have fallen short, and reminded us that until we have better batteries to store fickle wind and solar power supplies, then our reliance on traditional power sources will remain strong.
With global fuel prices unlikely to fall soon, and shortages a concern, policymakers are now braced for these inflated costs to bleed through into the price of everything from petrol and winter heating bills to a wide range of consumer goods.
Fears of “greenflation” are compounding inflationary forces inevitably linked with the world’s emergence from the pandemic to make many economists speculate that high inflation rates will be less temporary than most central bankers have planned for.
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The starkest message of late has been that the transition away from fossil fuels is going to be messier and more costly than most people realise. It is likely to force political leaders to confront unpopular choices that most are desperate to avoid. And it is likely to involve more significant lifestyle changes than many people are willing to swallow.
It will involve huge and sustained additional costs that governments seem unwilling – or unable – to bear, at a time when they are juggling unprecedented mountains of debt, lower tax revenues and a long list of competing claims on hard-pressed budgets.
It says the pledges made “fall well short of what is required”. It says investment in clean energy must triple, to US$4 trillion a year by 2030, and that unabated oil and coal power plants must be gone by 2040.
From this year, no new oil or gas fields can be opened, and no new coal powered plants built. At present, these fossil fuels account for 60 per cent of the world’s electricity generation, and both China and India are building new thermal plants.
By 2040, global oil demand must be cut to 50 per cent of last year’s consumption level, and by 2050, 90 per cent of electricity must come from renewable sources, with annual additions of 630GW of solar power and 350GW of wind power.
It says 86 per cent of cars must be electric by 2050, compared with 1 per cent today, with massive investment in national electric-vehicle battery-charging infrastructure.
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It says we will need breakthrough innovation in batteries, hydrogen power, and air capture and storage, but, in a more recent report released in October, is concerned that just 17 governments worldwide have any hydrogen strategy in place. From 50,000 tonnes of hydrogen produced worldwide a year, we need to aim for 80 million tonnes by 2030.
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Above all else, the IEA says we need “unprecedented international cooperation” for a realistic chance to reach net zero by 2050. As I look back at how well world leaders have worked together over the past two years through the global pandemic, and how productively the US and China are cooperating, the temptation ahead of COP26 must surely be to throw in the towel.
Despite improving cooperation on carbon pricing, both to encourage the transition from fossil fuels and to fund new investment in renewables, a yawning gap remains between the carbon prices we need, and what consumers are willing to bear.
If the IEA’s work has value ahead of COP26, it must be to demonstrate that the hunt for a silver bullet will be in vain. Getting to net zero is going to be a brutal slog that changes most of our lives. The sooner we recognise this, the better – and the more likely COP26 will deliver meaningful progress.
David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view
