US-China trade relations are about to hit a brick wall, and no amount of spin-doctoring can change that. By December 31, China needs to complete its commitment to increase imports of US goods, an agreement made between former US president Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in the phase one trade deal signed two years ago. Based on available data, it is almost certain that China is not going to meet those commitments. What comes next, as both countries enter a politically sensitive year, is going to be acrimonious and difficult to manage. The virtual meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden earlier this month did nothing to assuage concerns that tougher days lie ahead. Despite these difficulties, both countries need to keep in mind the beneficial aspects of their trading relationship and not ruin decades of cooperation. The work of 2022 will be a salvage operation to keep these two economic engines from going off the rails. The facts of the disagreement are not controversial. While many diplomatic agreements can be parsed for shades of meaning, this one was rather precise. The United States suspended new planned China tariffs and halved the rate of several existing ones in exchange for Chinese purchases of US$200 billion more of goods than in 2017. The deal helped temporarily improve ties between the world’s two largest economies after many months of tit-for-tat tariff exchanges. According to recent trade statistics, China’s purchases amounted to 56 per cent of its target through to October 21. In the two-year period of the agreement, total purchases are behind by around US$172 billion. Manufactured goods account for more than US$100 billion of the shortfall, energy nearly US$40 billion and agricultural purchases , US$30 billion. When the breach occurs, there will be a cascade of commentary that calls into question Beijing’s sincerity, as well as the nature of the bilateral economic relationship going forward. Both the US political left and right will seize on this as yet another example of Washington being played for a fool. It appears Beijing is not concerned about this at all. With less than five weeks to go, the pace of imports has dropped to the slowest this year. The lower amount of imports might have initially been laid at the doorstep of the Covid-19 pandemic. This can no longer be used as an excuse, though, as China’s economy quickly rebounded with Beijing’s control over the outbreak. Restaurants and shopping malls soon reopened, imports have soared and retail sales have rebounded. With a speedy economic recovery has come the ability to weather US objections, a hubris nearing its apex. It generates a confidence that proffers little compromise. Officials, for example, routinely characterise the US as a country in decline . Meanwhile, in the US, times may be tough with stubborn inflation and a resurgent Covid-19 outbreak, but there is little reason to doubt the economy will mend. New unemployment figures suggest a rebound and consumer spending is remarkably robust. That translates into Washington policy that remains focused on protecting workers over expanding free trade, much to the chagrin of trade associations. There is little wiggle room here as the midterm election season ramps up in early 2022. How Biden’s midterm election performance could affect the US stock market Concerns over persistent trade imbalances, theft of intellectual property , market access restrictions and other barriers to trade with China have created an unusually strong bipartisan consensus in Washington. The argument is no longer between free traders and protectionists but over who can be tougher on trade. That makes for a difficult, if not nearly impossible, negotiation when it comes to improving economic ties. It appears the US is not concerned about that, either. US policy will harden. China policy will harden. Forget about a phase two trade deal that aims to reduce or eliminate more tariffs. As 2022 rings in, expect the tenor of China- and US-bashing to rise on both sides of the Pacific. These trade issues skirt the main irritants in the relationship – diametrically opposed political systems with irreconcilable economic views. For any forward progress to occur, these thorny issues need to be off the table. It is a non-starter to try to reduce or eliminate Chinese government support for state-owned enterprises , something anathema to Communist Party control and influence over large swathes of their economy. Beijing’s attempts to advocate for Chinese firms aren’t worth pursuing, either, as Washington is not going to allow access for Chinese telecoms providers and equipment manufacturers that pose security risks to US infrastructure. Even so, China Telecom is appealing against the Federal Communication Commission’s revocation of its authorisation to operate in the US. That appears to have little chance of succeeding, as China Mobile was denied a licence to do business in the US in 2019, and several others, including China Unicom and Comnet, were banned. The next phase in the bilateral relationship will not be a new cold war. The US and the Soviet Union were never as intertwined economically as the US and China are today. It isn’t even a full decoupling or divorce, but it is a trial separation. What already works in the trade relationship will probably continue in some form, but any broader reconciliation is a long way off. That will have to be enough for now. Even though China is not likely to pull off the purchase increases it promised, both countries should not destroy the benefits of the trade flows that still exist, especially when rhetoric reaches a fever pitch. This adjustment period of adversarial competition will be rough. The sooner both sides realise that maintaining what they already have is better than causing more widespread disruptions, the better it will be for everyone. Brian P. Klein (@brianpklein) is a geopolitical and economic strategist and former US diplomat