Macroscope | Omicron variant uncertainty should put investors off amateur virology
- Investors have enough problems handling more familiar risks without having to speculate about questions epidemiologists are better off addressing
- They are well-advised to confine their predictions to the economy and markets, where there is more than enough uncertainty already
In short, there is much we do not know about the variant, certainly not enough to gauge its impact on the global economy and financial markets. Yet, this has not stopped investors from reprising their roles as amateur virologists.
Some of the analysis has been remarkably rigorous, involving assessments of reproduction numbers – the average number of new cases generated by an infected individual – at different stages of the pandemic.
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Major providers of financial data, such as Bloomberg and the Financial Times, have tracked infections and deaths and monitored vaccination rates. They have even compiled a “Covid Resilience Ranking” showing where the virus is being handled most effectively with the least amount of economic upheaval.