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OpinionUS and China are flirting with disaster as the chance of South China Sea conflict rises
- As China’s power expands, the South China Sea has become a frontier of military friction with US and allied forces
- The two powers have avoided a head-on collision so far, but this could just be the calm before the storm
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Typhoons in the South China Sea were rather severe last year, but they might not be the only type of storm there. Indeed, the US-China contest for dominance could produce a military maelstrom.
Globally, US military power is clearly superior to that of China. The gap between them is less pronounced in China’s near waters like the South China Sea, yet the United States continues to push its luck there.
The US might be miscalculating China’s military capability in the area and its political will to use it if necessary. The present uneasy stand-off could be a deceptive lull before a storm, and things could become much worse in a hurry.
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US President Joe Biden has described the contest between America and China as one that will determine whether liberal democracy or authoritarianism comes out on top. The US is now building coalitions of those countries willing to help it prevent China from reaching its goal of regional dominance.
This includes the Quad – short for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – and the Aukus agreement. The Quad is a coalition of the US, Australia, India and Japan which has the stated goal of maintaining a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
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The South China Sea dispute explained
The South China Sea dispute explained
The Quad leaders “champion adherence to international law, particularly as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, to meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, including in the East and South China Seas”. This is their response to what they consider China’s illegitimate claims in the South China Sea.
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