Typhoons in the South China Sea were rather severe last year, but they might not be the only type of storm there. Indeed, the US-China contest for dominance could produce a military maelstrom. Globally, US military power is clearly superior to that of China. The gap between them is less pronounced in China’s near waters like the South China Sea , yet the United States continues to push its luck there. The US might be miscalculating China’s military capability in the area and its political will to use it if necessary. The present uneasy stand-off could be a deceptive lull before a storm, and things could become much worse in a hurry. US President Joe Biden has described the contest between America and China as one that will determine whether liberal democracy or authoritarianism comes out on top. The US is now building coalitions of those countries willing to help it prevent China from reaching its goal of regional dominance. This includes the Quad – short for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – and the Aukus agreement. The Quad is a coalition of the US, Australia, India and Japan which has the stated goal of maintaining a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. The Quad leaders “champion adherence to international law, particularly as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, to meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, including in the East and South China Seas”. This is their response to what they consider China’s illegitimate claims in the South China Sea. Aukus, meanwhile, is an agreement for the US and Britain to supply nuclear submarine propulsion and underwater drone technology to Australia. One likely use of these submarines will be to assist the US in neutralising China’s nuclear submarines in the South China Sea. The agreement also calls for rotations of US jet fighters and bombers to northern Australia and the potential acquisition of more rotational basing for its submarines in Perth, Western Australia. The US will also be increasing its use of Australia as a base for its surveillance and deterrence of China in the South China Sea. As China’s power expands, the South China Sea has become a frontier of military friction with US and allied forces. Beijing has so far been restrained in its actions, a fact Chinese academic Zhang Feng says stems from its desire not to overreact, confidence in its strategic and economic leverage in the region and belief that time is on its side. But there are limits to China’s restraint. China’s body politic is increasingly nationalistic , and any national loss of face like a forced public climbdown in the South China Sea could trigger a more severe response. There are also strategic reasons for China’s angst. Its second-strike nuclear submarines operate in the South China Sea. They are its insurance against a first strike. US intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) probes in the South China Sea focus on detecting and tracking China’s nuclear submarines. Given what it perceives to be the growing US threat to its nuclear submarines, China is building up capabilities on some of the features it occupies to neutralise US ISR probes and enhance the survivability of its nuclear submarines. From China’s perspective, these electronic surveillance bases are necessary in the face of an existential threat. Nevertheless, the US has increased the frequency of its military ISR probes of China’s defences. It has also heightened its freedom of navigation operations challenging China’s maritime territorial and jurisdictional claims. China says these operations are a threat to its sovereignty and security. The worry about a military clash is not theoretical. In 2001, a US intelligence plane and a Chinese fighter jet collided off Hainan . The Chinese pilot died as his jet crashed into the sea, and the damaged US plane made an emergency landing on Hainan. The region and the world held their collective breath while cooler heads negotiated a release of the crew. There have also been several close calls. In October 2018, there was a near collision in the South China Sea between the US destroyer Decatur and a Chinese warship. The Pentagon said the Chinese ship used “an unsafe and unprofessional manoeuvre”, forcing the Decatur to change course to avoid a collision. In May 2020, the guided missile cruiser Bunker Hill and other US ships held exercises with an Australian frigate near the site of an ongoing dispute between China, Vietnam and Malaysia over exploration rights . Two Chinese destroyers and a frigate soon arrived, making the situation more dangerous. Other US warships also showed up. The focus of conflict prevention has now become what China calls “the prolonged and intensive reconnaissance and exercises by US military ships and aircraft”. China says they are “the source of Sino-US maritime and aerial security risks”. These efforts have so far been insufficient to prevent military shadow boxing on both sides. The 2014 non-binding Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea is ineffective as a conflict prevention mechanism because many such encounters are neither unexpected nor even unplanned. During his recent visit to Southeast Asia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken basically threw down the gauntlet. Speaking in Jakarta, he reiterated that the US would “defend the rules-based order”, adding that the US and other countries – including South China Sea claimants – would continue to stand up against China’s violations of international law. China and the US are flirting with disaster in the South China Sea. They are feeling each other out like boxers in the first round. So far, they have avoided a head-on collision, but this could just be the calm before the severe military storm. Mark J. Valencia is an adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China