OpinionSouth China Sea: a time for adjustments as US, China and Asean fine-tune their strategies

The US is stepping up its economic diplomacy while China explores the path of persuasion, as both seek to strike a balance between the use of hard and soft power

Asean members that are the targets of this political tug of war are not sitting back either, with Indonesia initiating a dialogue that could help enhance Asean agency

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Published: 8:45am, 22 Jan 2022Updated: 9:02am, 24 Jan 2022

The South China Sea has been relatively quiet over the past few months. But that does not mean nothing is happening behind the scenes. Indeed, the principal protagonists – China and the US, and the Southeast Asian countries caught in between – are trying to figure out their next moves. Once their strategies gel, expect clashes in real time.

China will not stop trying to achieve its irredentist goal of wresting dominance in the South China Sea from the US. But in the face of stepped-up US military and political pressure, and resistance from some rival claimants like the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia, it is recalibrating its strategy. The need to avoid further politicising next month’s Winter Olympics is also a factor.

China believes it has a right to a share of the resources in other claimants’ exclusive economic zones, and it will continue to demand it without pushing these countries into US arms. To reach this balance, Beijing is trying to find the right mix of patience, perseverance, economic diplomacy and “grey zone” tactics, involving efforts to achieve political objectives without resorting to the direct use of force.

Filipino demonstrators protest against the intrusion of Chinese patrol boats in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, in front of the Chinese consulate in Manila, Philippines, on April 23, 2021. Beijing is trying to find the right mix of patience, perseverance, economic diplomacy and “grey zone” tactics in its South China Sea diplomacy. Photo: EPA-EFE

In the face of US military pressure, China has little choice but to respond tit-for-tat. Its leadership has played the nationalist card and will lose credibility if it backs down. The US and its allies need to understand this and not push Beijing into a corner.

Politically, China will continue to paint the US and its allies as outside interlopers, and hopefully convince at least some Asean countries that the US should dial down its anti-China rhetoric and actions.

Meanwhile, the US is also recalibrating its approach. It wants to continue to balance China militarily without unduly frightening or overcommitting to its friends and allies in the region. Indeed, it has to be careful not to be drawn into a conflict with China not of its choosing by rash actions of its friends and allies.

The US has said engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is an important initiative for 2022, and is stepping up its economic diplomacy. It is pushing for an Indo-Pacific economic framework to compete with the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, though the details have yet to be worked out.

At the same time, the US continues to press China with displays of power in the South China Sea. On January 11, an aircraft carrier strike group and a landing helicopter dock group entered the seas for joint exercises.