As Hung Tran, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, observes, “If Russia and China increase policy coordination and support each other economically, they will strengthen their strategic positions, presenting a formidable challenge to the West.”

China, Tran suggests, is logically the most important country with which Russia can deepen its strategic alliance for mutual support and assistance: “Both are opponents of the US in the escalating geopolitical struggle and both have been put under US sanctions for various reasons.”

02:27

Amid Russian troop build-up in Belarus, Ukrainian soldiers doubt good result in Kremlin-US talks

Amid Russian troop build-up in Belarus, Ukrainian soldiers doubt good result in Kremlin-US talks

Although Russia’s pivot to Asia over the past seven years has resulted only in modest progress economically, it has become “an important strategic element in Russia and China’s conflicts with the West – especially in Ukraine, Eastern Europe and Taiwan and in the Indo-Pacific region”, he adds.

The US, Tran concludes, “may end up having to fight on two fronts at the same time against formidable enemies compared with Iraq and Afghanistan in the recent past”.

Others are of a similar view. “Beijing may appear to be standing by and watching things unfold, but proximity between China and Russia has accelerated and their trade has doubled in the past five years,” former Goldman Sachs Asia vice-chairman Kenneth Courtis notes.

The economic underpinnings of Russia and China will decide how things develop from here. Russia has grown stronger in this regard. Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are on track to pass US$700 billion, helped by steep rises in oil prices.

Russia, Courtis suggests, “has been preparing for either the collapse of the US money system or to insulate Russia against another onslaught of sanctions”. But either way, “Russia cannot so easily be threatened with economic measures now”.

Energy supplies nevertheless remain a significant Achilles’ heel not only for Russia, whose proven oil reserves will suffice for 24 years at current production rates and whose natural gas reserves will last 76 years, but also for Europe, especially in a time of energy scarcity and high prices.

Under Western sanctions, the Russian economy has stagnated since 2014 while GDP has contracted to US$1.6 trillion as of 2021. Very conservative economic policies adopted to cope with Western sanctions are largely responsible for this.

Tight fiscal policies have reduced Russia’s budget deficit, cutting its government debt-to-GDP ratio and making Russia one of the least indebted countries in the world. Russian companies have also slashed their external debt while a floating rouble has supported exports and reduced imports.

Russia’s current account surplus has grown and the country’s National Wealth Fund has accumulated reserves of US$191 billion. All this suggests a growing ability to withstand financial pain.

Armaments have traditionally been a key export item for Russia, with China, India and Vietnam among the top five purchasers. Russia has also been supplying China with sophisticated defence systems.

Overall trade between Russia and China has grown to over US$100 billion. Russia has increased exports of crude oil to China, being the top exporter from 2016 to 2018.

All this does not mean the two countries have completely aligned ambitions. Russia sides with China against the US but may not wish to see China replace the US as the predominant power in Asia. Russia and India would probably rather promote a multipolar world. But a marriage of convenience between Russia and China seems likely while external pressures on both persist.

Anthony Rowley is a veteran journalist specialising in Asian economic and financial affairs