Reaction to Russia’s Ukraine invasion should give China pause on Taiwan

One of the most remarkable aspects of the global reaction is the unity between the US and its European allies after a long period of being at odds
Expectations of China attacking Taiwan could help the US overcome the resistance of its Indo-Pacific allies and partners to hosting US troops and equipment

Emanuele Scimia

Published: 1:30am, 2 Mar 2022

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With the prospect of taking Taiwan in mind, it is likely that China is making note of the problems Russia is facing in its invasion of Ukraine. However, this should not be Beijing’s main preoccupation. War plans often do not pass the battleground test, and despite this Russian President Vladimir Putin might still win his reckless war.

What China should actually pay attention to is the miracle performed by the Kremlin’s aggressiveness. It has brought together the United States and its European allies in Nato after a long period of disagreement and tension.

The Biden administration’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, along with the signing of the Aukus agreement between the United States, Britain and Australia – which ended a multibillion-dollar contract between the Australian government and defence contractor Naval Group, majority owned by the French government – caused rifts between some members of the transatlantic security alliance.

Relations between the US and Nato had just emerged from a difficult phase under former US president Donald Trump, and this time of internal divisions might have prompted Putin to believe Nato was experiencing a moment of weakness. It wasn’t. Russia might have made the same mistake the French did when they had thought Britain’s power was declining following its loss of the American colonies in 1783.

The view of the US and Europe closing ranks in the face of Russia’s attack on Ukraine should worry China. An aggressive deployment of China’s navy against Taiwan could have the same effect, pushing reluctant US allies and partners in East and Southeast Asia to abandon a position of equidistance and join forces more resolutely with the US against a belligerent China.

03:49

Russia begins attack on Ukraine as US and Nato vow response

The same goes for Pacific island nations, most of which currently do not consider China a threat. These nations are a renewed focus of the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

Aside from the barrage of sanctions against Russian leaders, individuals, institutions and businesses – including the freezing of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline from Russia to Germany and the exclusion of select Russian banks from the Swift international payment system – what is truly stunning is Europe’s decision to reinforce its military capabilities against Moscow.

Russia says it launched its invasion for the “demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine. The reality is that before Russia’s military build-up started months ago, Euro-Atlantic defences in the region were minimal. Now Putin’s move has prompted Nato to reinforce its eastern flank with ground, air and naval forces.

In a watershed moment, the European Union announced on Sunday that it would provide Ukraine with weapons, the first time since its foundation it has made such a decision. On the same day, the German cabinet said it would increase its defence spending to €100 billion (US$113 billion) this year. With this move Germany’s military expenditure will be increased to over 2 per cent of its annual gross domestic product, a Nato target that Berlin has so far failed to meet, which has annoyed many US administrations.

On this point, the Kremlin’s military bet has backfired. We can also see this with regard to Sweden and Finland, which are not Nato members. In light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the internal debate in the two Nordic countries on joining the transatlantic alliance has received new impetus.

On the eve of Russia’s “special military operation”, British conservative lawmakers – including former prime minister Theresa May – were adamant that what happens in Ukraine will also have implications for Taiwan and East Asia.

Asean should have called out Russian attack but it chose to stay mute

The simple threat of an imminent attack against the island could favour the US strategy to contain China in the seas, based on the concept of highly mobile forces distributed along the first island chain from southern Japan to Indonesia. It is what US naval strategist James Holmes calls the “ulcer strategy” to plague an enemy force so as to deny the Chinese navy control of the seas.

After years of counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, it seems the Pentagon is taking a page from the insurgency playbook to prevent an invasion or amphibious war against Taiwan by China.

The idea of hosting small US military units jumping from island to island in light amphibious warships to counter China’s operations could make some nations in the area nervous. They know they could become the target of Chinese economic and military retaliation.

03:23

The South China Sea dispute explained

After watching the satellite images of Russian troops encircling Ukraine for months, China’s continuing naval and air incursions near Taiwan could eliminate the hesitation of countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, which are locked in territorial disputes with China over the South China Sea.

Indonesia’s recent acquisition of French and US fighter jets, as well as the Philippines’ conclusion of a deal to buy three batteries of Indian-manufactured Brahmos anti-ship missiles, signal that an arms race is already under way in Southeast Asia.

With the precedent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expectations of China undertaking a lightning offensive against Taiwan could help the US overcome the resistance of Indo-Pacific allies and partners to host small, distributed groups of US troops and military assets to counter China’s assertiveness.

Emanuele Scimia is an independent journalist and foreign affairs analyst