To beat Covid-19, Hong Kong must execute ‘dynamic zero infection’ strategy as intended

Even with mainland support, Hong Kong will struggle to bring coronavirus infections under control if it takes a half-hearted approach to “dynamic zero-Covid”
Reluctance to pursue more stringent measures for fear of backlash will only prolong the outbreak and put many more vulnerable lives at risk

Regina Ip

Published: 8:30am, 6 Mar 2022

Why you can trust SCMP

The highly infectious Omicron was first discovered in South Africa in late 2021 and declared a “virus of concern” by the World Health Organization on November 25. Its spread to other parts of the world, including Hong Kong, was not unanticipated. But the exponential rate at which it has exploded nevertheless caught our city off guard.

With a total of more than 350,000 positive cases logged and 1,366 deaths as of March 3, the severity of the situation in Hong Kong has surpassed that of Wuhan and indeed any developed country.

Hong Kong’s fall from grace ignited debates over whether the city’s “blind adherence” to China’s “dynamic zero-Covid” strategy is to blame.

For months, questions have been raised as to why Hong Kong cannot “live with Covid” like its rival city Singapore, and lift its harsh social distancing restrictions and curbs on international travel. As experience in many parts of the world shows, achieving zero infection is impossible. At the rate Covid-19 is spreading, by the end of April Hong Kong may be on the way to achieving herd immunity, they say. So why not lift all curbs and wait for the virus to peter out?

This argument ignores the tremendous human price our city will have to pay in terms of deaths of the infirm, the old and small children. “Collateral” deaths will arise among uninfected people who could not get treatment in time because of the collapse of the health care system.

For weeks, state media have run reports explaining that the “dynamic zero-Covid” strategy does not mean pursuing zero infections. But perhaps in the minds of Hong Kong’s “living with Covid” advocates, commentaries by faceless writers in state media are not to be taken seriously. But we do now have a full-throated explanation by a top public health official from mainland China, as reported by the Post.

Liang Wannian, leader of the National Health Commission’s Covid Response Expert Team, is seen arriving in Hong Kong on February 28 to help the city manage its fifth wave of coronavirus infections. Photo: May Tse

Dr Liang Wannian, head of the Covid Response Expert Team of the National Health Commission, stressed upon his arrival in Hong Kong on February 28 that “the goal of ‘dynamic clearing’ is not to blindly pursue zero infections, but to cut off the chain of transmission as soon as possible to minimise the occurrence of infection, severe illness and death”.

Liang also explained that “given China’s huge population base, a surge in confirmed cases in a short period of time would lead to bottlenecks in medical resources, shortages of epidemic prevention material and high workloads for medical personnel”.

He estimated that “12 to 15 million people could be infected every week if China has a massive outbreak similar to that seen in Western countries”. Such a scale would be roughly equivalent to three countries the size of Denmark being imperilled every week. That is, in Liang’s words, “a burden that China cannot bear”.

‘Dynamic living with Covid’ is the policy Hong Kong should pursue

There is also a misunderstanding that China is being unrealistic in pursuing an unsustainable “zero infection” goal. The fact is, there is no inherent contradiction between a “dynamic zero” strategy and “living with Covid”. In a way, China is already living with the virus. As of March 2, the seven-day average for cases in mainland China is 226, with a great many from Hong Kong.

The salient feature of China’s strategy lies in the “dynamic” (read: stringent) nature of the measures the country is prepared to adopt to detect, trace, and isolate transmissions. In contrast, Hong Kong shudders at adopting such measures, fearing a backlash from liberal residents.

04:52

Breaking down Hong Kong's dynamic zero Covid-19 strategy

Hong Kong’s leaders appear obliged to follow China’s strategy, but they are actually constrained by liberal constituents and a lack of courage to follow their motherland’s proven ways. The city’s tracking device, Leave Home Safe, is far less rigorous than Singapore’s tracking measures, let alone mainland China’s omnipresent health code.

Hong Kong baulked at more coercive methods to ramp up its vaccination drive. Promotion was left to the private sector to offer homes and luxury vehicles as prizes. The further lowering of the age for children to be vaccinated came only after the deaths of small children in the fifth wave.

Before the Lunar New Year, the government tightened social distancing measures, but based on its old playbook of clamping down on “scheduled premises”. Playgrounds, fitness centres and beauty parlours were closed. Yet thousands of people flocked to the Mong Kok flower market and Chinese temples in the run-up to and during the New Year holidays. It’s hardly surprising that large-scale outbreaks occurred afterwards in densely populated public housing areas.

Little was done to mitigate the scope for deadly outbreaks at congested homes for the elderly, long highlighted as potential disaster areas.

Those eager to shake free of China’s stringent measures should take note of a blog post by Zeng Guang, former chief scientist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, which says that China’s “zero-Covid” strategy is not immutable, and that China will publish a road map for “living with Covid” in due course.

Beijing is now giving Hong Kong full backing to bring the fifth wave under control. Zero may not be a realistic target, but hopefully a community-wide testing programme later this month, coupled with a dramatic slowdown in activity, will halt the transmission.

The world is watching whether Hong Kong, operating its separate systems, can leverage mainland China’s vast resources to win its Covid-19 fight.

Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee is a lawmaker and chairwoman of the New People’s Party